692 research outputs found

    First passage time distribution for a random walker on a random forcing energy landscape

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    We present an analytical approximation scheme for the first passage time distribution on a finite interval of a random walker on a random forcing energy landscape. The approximation scheme captures the behavior of the distribution over all timescales in the problem. The results are carefully checked against numerical simulations.Comment: 16 page

    Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

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    Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Advanced Research Fellowship NE/I021365/1)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Upper Atmospheric Research Program Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio

    Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods

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    We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for atmospheric trace gas inversions. This method is used to estimate emissions of trace gases as well as "hyper-parameters" that characterize the probability density functions (PDFs) of the a priori emissions and model-measurement covariances. By exploring the space of "uncertainties in uncertainties", we show that the hierarchical method results in a more complete estimation of emissions and their uncertainties than traditional Bayesian inversions, which rely heavily on expert judgment. We present an analysis that shows the effect of including hyper-parameters, which are themselves informed by the data, and show that this method can serve to reduce the effect of errors in assumptions made about the a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties. We then apply this method to the estimation of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) emissions over 2012 for the regions surrounding four Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) stations. We find that improper accounting of model representation uncertainties, in particular, can lead to the derivation of emissions and associated uncertainties that are unrealistic and show that those derived using the hierarchical method are likely to be more representative of the true uncertainties in the system. We demonstrate through this SF6 case study that this method is less sensitive to outliers in the data and to subjective assumptions about a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties than traditional methods

    Stimulus affective valence reverses spatial compatibility effect

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    In spatial compatibility tasks, the Reaction Time to right-side stimuli is shorter for right key responses (compatible condition) than for left key responses (incompatible condition) and vice-versa for left-side stimuli. Similar results have been found when the stimulus location is not relevant for response selection, such as in the Simon task. The Simon effect is the difference between the reaction times for non-corresponding and corresponding conditions. The Simon effect and its variants may be modulated by using emotional stimuli. However, until now, no work has studied how the affective valence of a stimulus influences spatial compatibility effects along the horizontal dimension. The present study investigated this issue by using small lateralized figures of soccer team players as stimuli. In the experiment, a compatible or incompatible response was chosen according to the team shirt. In one block, for the Favorite team, the volunteers had to press the key on the same side as the stimulus hemifield but the opposite-side key for the Rival team. In the other block, a reverse code had to be used. Fourteen right-handed volunteers were tested. Mean reaction times were subjected to analysis of variance with the following variables: Preference (Favorite/Rival), Hemifield (Left/Right), and Response Key (Left/Right). A three-way interaction was found (F1,13 = 6.60, p = .023), showing that the spatial compatibility effects depended on Preference. The Favorite team player elicited the usual spatial compatibility pattern, but for the Rival team player, the reverse effect was found, with incompatible responses being faster than compatible responses. We propose that this modulation may result from approach/avoidance reactions to the Favorite and Rival teams, respectively. Moreover, we suggest as a corollary that the classic spatial compatibility task is a powerful tool for investigating approach/avoidance effects.Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)CNPq(FAPERJ) Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de JaneiroCNPq - PIBIC-UFFUFF - PROP

    Greenhouse gas measurements from a UK network of tall towers: technical description and first results

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    A network of three tall tower measurement stations was set up in 2012 across the United Kingdom to expand measurements made at the long-term background northern hemispheric site, Mace Head, Ireland. Reliable and precise in situ greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis systems were developed and deployed at three sites in the UK with automated instrumentation measuring a suite of GHGs. The UK Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change (UK DECC) network uses tall (165–230 m) open-lattice telecommunications towers, which provide a convenient platform for boundary layer trace gas sampling. In this paper we describe the automated measurement system and first results from the UK DECC network for CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CO and H2. CO2 and CH4 are measured at all of the UK DECC sites by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) with multiple inlet heights at two of the three tall tower sites to assess for boundary layer stratification. The short-term precisions (1σ on 1 min means) of CRDS measurements at background mole fractions for January 2012 to September 2015 is < 0.05 µmol mol−1 for CO2 and < 0.3 nmol mol−1 for CH4. Repeatability of standard injections (1σ) is < 0.03 µmol mol−1 for CO2 and < 0.3 nmol mol−1 for CH4 for the same time period. N2O and SF6 are measured at three of the sites, and CO and H2 measurements are made at two of the sites, from a single inlet height using gas chromatography (GC) with an electron capture detector (ECD), flame ionisation detector (FID) or reduction gas analyser (RGA). Repeatability of individual injections (1σ) on GC and RGA instruments between January 2012 and September 2015 for CH4, N2O, SF6, CO and H2 measurements were < 2.8 nmol mol−1, < 0.4 nmol mol−1, < 0.07 pmol mol−1, < 2 nmol mol−1 and < 3 nmol mol−1, respectively. Instrumentation in the network is fully automated and includes sensors for measuring a variety of instrumental parameters such as flow, pressures, and sampling temperatures. Automated alerts are generated and emailed to site operators when instrumental parameters are not within defined set ranges. Automated instrument shutdowns occur for critical errors such as carrier gas flow rate deviations. Results from the network give good spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric mixing ratios within the UK since early 2012. Results also show that all measured GHGs are increasing in mole fraction over the selected reporting period and, except for SF6, exhibit a seasonal trend. CO2 and CH4 also show strong diurnal cycles, with night-time maxima and daytime minima in mole fractions