5,362 research outputs found

    Making Progress in Forecasting

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    Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of reasonable forecasting approaches. Such studies can be used to identify the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions, a process we call evidence-based forecasting. Unfortunately, evidence-based forecasting meets resistance from academics and practitioners when the findings differ from currently accepted beliefs. As a consequence, although much progress has been made in developing improved forecasting methods, the diffusion of useful forecasting methods has been disappointing. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we recommend a stronger emphasis on the method of multiple hypotheses and on invited replications of important research. It is then necessary to translate the findings into principles that are easy to understand and apply. The Internet and software provide important opportunities for making the latest findings available to researchers and practitioners. Because researchers and practitioners believe that their areas are unique, we should organize findings so that they are relevant to each area and make them easily available when people search for information about forecasting in their area. Organisational barriers to change still remain to be overcome. Research into the specific issues faced when forecasting remains a priority

    Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing

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    In recent years, the American market system has come under increasing criticism from those it serves. Many young people, radicals, members of minority groups and even middle-of-the-roaders are concerned about such things as poor product quality, poor variety, unsafe products. and misleading advertising. From almost any vantage point, flaws in the American economic system are visible.role conflict, marketing, society, dilemma

    Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

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    There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.extrapolation, forecasting, extrapolative forecasting method

    Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods

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    Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based their conclusion on the fact that rankings based on GFESM remain unaltered if the series are linearly transformed. In this paper, we argue that this evaluation ignores other important criteria. Also, their conclusions were illustrated by a simulation study whose relationship to real data was not obvious. Thirdly, prior empirical studies show that the mean square error is an inappropriate measure to serve as a basis for comparison. This undermines the claims made for the GFESM.Accuracy Forecast evaluation Loss functions

    Risk assessment and relationship management: practical approach to supply chain risk management

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    The literature suggests the need for incorporating the risk construct into the measurement of organisational performance, although few examples are available as to how this might be undertaken in relation to supply chains. A conceptual framework for the development of performance and risk management within the supply chain is evolved from the literature and empirical evidence. The twin levels of dyadic performance/risk management and the management of a portfolio of performance/risks is addressed, employing Agency Theory to guide the analysis. The empirical evidence relates to the downstream management of dealerships by a large multinational organisation. Propositions are derived from the analysis relating to the issues and mechanisms that may be employed to effectively manage a portfolio of supply chain performance and risks

    The Impact of Audit Risk, Materiality and Severity of Ethical Decision Making: An Analysis of the Perceptions of Tax Agents in Australia

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    This paper focuses on the role of the tax agent as a preparer of tax returns and provider of professional tax advice under a system based on self-assessment principles. In particular it recognises the competing pressures under which tax agents attempt to discharge their professional responsibilities, and the implications for potentially unethical behaviour. Empirical research into taxpayer attitudes suggests that the risk of audit, the severity of tax law and the materiality of dollar amounts involved, will all impact on the decision making process. This paper extends these principles from taxpayer to tax agent, by seeking their response to alternative client demands as represented in realistic tax return scenarios. The findings suggest that the severity of tax law violation is an important factor in ethical decision making, but that audit risk and the amounts involved are not. The lack of support for audit risk as an influential variable is an important outcome, because policy makers have traditionally proceeded on the basis that increases in audit probabilities will reduce the likelihood of taxpayers adopting aggressive tax reporting positions. The implications are that alternative enforcement and compliance strategies must be considered by tax administrators.

    Ethical Issues Facing Tax Professionals: A Comparative Survey of Tax Agents and Big 5 Tax Practitioners in Australia

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    The move towards a full self-assessment tax regime in Australia has brought with it a greater representation of, and expanded role for tax practitioners. Given that the resolution of many tax issues present significant ethical dilemmas for tax practitioners in their role as the moral agent of their clients, and the close relationship of ethics and tax compliance, an evaluation of the nature and extent of ethical concerns as identified by tax practitioners themselves has important implications both for the tax profession and tax administration. There have, however, been few empirical studies reported in Australia as to the range of ethical issues encountered in tax practice. Further, there has been a tendency in the literature to treat the tax profession as a homogeneous group, notwithstanding that tax services are provided through a variety of organisational structures ranging from sole-practitioners to large international public accounting firms (Big 5 firms). To investigate whether such a view of the tax profession in Western Australia is accurate or inappropriate, tax professionals were partitioned into the broad body of tax practitioners in general practice (registered tax agents), in one group, and tax practitioners engaged by the Big 5 firms, in a second group. The aim of this research was to investigate whether there were significant differences in the ethical perceptions between tax agents and Big 5 tax practitioners. A mail - questionnaire was used to elicit data as to the frequency and importance of a range of ethical issues in tax practice. For analysis, the list was subsequently reduced to a ÃTop 10Ã inventory. Overall, the practical differences were not dramatic with significant percentages of both groups rating those issues which related primarily to the conduct of professional responsibilities e.g., ensuring reasonable enquiries are undertaken, maintaining an appropriate level of technical competence, continuing to act for a client when it is not appropriate, as of most concern to tax practitioners. One issue on which there was a significant difference between the two groups was the ranking of loophole seeking on the frequency dimension. A tentative explanation for this difference (ranked Ã1Ã and Ã11Ã for Big 5 and tax agent respondents respectively) is offered in terms of client expectations of a "tax exploiter" role for Big 5 practitioners in contrast to a "tax enforcer/compliance" role for their tax agent counterparts.

    The global pediatrician: is there such a person, or can there be?

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    As pediatricians, our concern for the health of children and youth starts with our individual encounters with patients and their families and extends to the community in which they live and the broader systems of society that influence their health. This concept of a pediatrician is captured in one of the “bibles” of our profession and in the words of Richard Behrman when he defines pediatrics as being “concerned with the health of infants, children, and adolescents, their growth and development, and their opportunity to achieve full potential as adults.”1 Health, growth and development, and opportunity as adults encompass the breadth and importance of our interests and responsibilities

    Le développement des droits miniers au Québec à la fin du XIXe siÚcle

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    This paper examines the forces at work in shaping the definition of mining rights in Quebec at the end of the 19th century. Using the Davis-North model of institutional change and some insights from the theory of rent-seeking, the author attempts to identify the origins of the provincial legal framework which has been in force since the turn of the century