Subvencions holandeses ocultes, un risc mediambiental

En els debats sobre política mediambiental, la necessitat d'eliminar les subvencions mediambientalment nocives ha rebut poca atenció. Aquestes subvencions solen augmentar la grandària i la intensitat de la contaminació de les activitats econòmiques, sovint sense una clara compensació dels beneficis socials. L'impacte ambiental de les subvencions directes, o en el pressupost, ha estat àmpliament reconegut. Però les subvencions indirectes o fora de pressupost (no visibles en els pressupostos del govern) són almenys igual d'importants. La investigació realitzada sobre aquest tema és escassa, però aquest estudi mostra els resultats de les emissions de gasos d'efecte hivernacle (GEH) i dels acidificantes derivats de les subvencions fora de pressupost als Països Baixos i, en particular, mostren que els subsidis en l'agricultura, l'energia i els transports contribueixen de manera important a les emissions de GEH. Una política climàtica eficaç, per tant, ha de considerar l'eliminació de les subvencions fora de pressupost.En los debates sobre política medioambiental la necesidad de eliminar las subvenciones medioambientalmente dañinas ha recibido poca atención. Estas subvenciones suelen aumentar el tamaño y la intensidad de la contaminación de las actividades económicas, a menudo sin una clara compensación de los beneficios sociales. El impacto ambiental de las subvenciones directas, o en el presupuesto, ha sido ampliamente reconocido. Pero las subvenciones indirectas o fuera de presupuesto (no visibles en los presupuestos del gobierno) son al menos igual de importantes. La investigación realizada sobre este tema es escasa, pero este estudio muestra los resultados de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y de los acidificantes derivados de las subvenciones fuera de presupuesto en los Países Bajos y, en particular, muestran que los subsidios en la agricultura, la energía y los transportes contribuyen de manera importante a las emisiones de GEI. Una política climática eficaz, por tanto, debe considerar la eliminación de las subvenciones fuera de presupuesto.In debates on environmental policy the complementary need for removing environmentally harmful subsidies has received little attention. Such subsidies typically increase the size and pollution intensity of economic activities, often without clear, compensating social benefits. The environmental impact of direct or on-budget subsidies has been well recognized. Indirect or off-budget subsidies, not visible in government budgets, are at least as important. Research on this topic is scarce. This research reports findings on greenhouse gas (GHG) and acidifying emissions arising from off-budget subsidies in the Netherlands and show that subsidies particularly in agriculture, energy and transport contribute importantly to GHG emissions. Effective climate policy therefore needs to consider removal of off-budget subsidies

Abolishing GDP

Expectations and information about the growth of GDP per capita have a large influence on decisions made by private and public economic agents. It will be argued here that GDP (per capita) is far from a robust indicator of social welfare, and that its use as such must be regarded as a serious form of market and government failure. This article presents an update on the most important criticisms of GDP as an indicator of social welfare and economic progress. It further examines the nature and extent of the impact of GDP information on the economy, revisits the customary arguments in favour of the GDP indicator, and critically evaluates proposed alternatives to GDP. The main conclusion is that it is rational to dismiss GDP as an indicator to monitor economic progress and to guide public policy. As is clarified, this conclusion does not imply a plea against growth, innovation or national accounting

A procedure for globally institutionalizing a 'beyond-GDP' metric

Altres ajuts: Acord transformatiu CRUE-CSICUnidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MIf governments are serious about meeting environmental and social goals, they should overcome dominance of the GDP indicator in political discourse. Institutionalizing a beyond-GDP metric would be an essential step, in interaction with a shift in the direction of an "agrowth" paradigm. For a significant step forward, a permanent UN panel could be charged to explore the options and prepare a metric for global implementation. This essay outlines the choice spectrum and provides criteria and guidelines for the metric-selection process. It is suggested that the panel considers four critical dimensions of potential alternatives, namely means versus ends, objective versus subjective information, aggregate index versus multiple indicators, and monetary versus other units. In deciding about each dimension, serious attention needs to be given to the psychological-communicative appeal of the resulting options, so as to guarantee a fluent uptake of the selected beyond-GDP metric in society, media and politics. The combined environmental and inequality crises at national and global scales make this the right time to finally translate a respectable history of beyond-GDP thinking into practical action

Evolutionary Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth, Environmental Quality and Resource Scarcity

This discussion paper has resulted in a chapter in: (R.U. Ayres, D. Simpson, and M. Toman (eds.)), Scarcity and Growth in the Millennium, 2005, Resources for the Future, Washington DC, 177-97

Harvesting and Conversation in a Predator-Prey System

Optimal harvesting of prey in a predator-prey ecosystem is studiedunder the condition that the existence of the predator has value. Predators (birds) and humans (fishers) compete for prey (shellfish). The behavior of the system is studied and conditions for optimal control are deduced. Various optimal harvesting rates are identified for particular ecosystem characteristics, harvesting costs, the discount rate value, and value functions for birds. These optimal harvest rates are constant harvesting, at levels possibly leading to the extinction of birds, or oscillating harvesting, giving rise to oscillating stocks of birds and shellfish. The approach path towards an optimal regime is shown qualitatively and consists of alternating between harvesting maximally and not harvesting at all

Energy Rebound Due to Re-spending. A Growing Concern

Energy conservation is widely accepted as an important strategy to combat climate change. It can, nevertheless, stimulate new energy uses that partly offset the original savings. This is known as rebound. One particular rebound mechanism is re-spending of money savings associated with energy savings on energy intensive goods or services. We calculate the average magnitude of this "re-spending rebound" for different fuels and countries. We find that emerging economies, neglected in past studies, typically have substantially larger rebounds than OECD countries. The effect is generally stronger for gasoline than for natural gas and electricity. Paradoxically, strengthening financial incentives to conserve energy tends to increase rebound. This is expected to gain importance with climate regulation and peak oil. We discuss the policy implications of our findings

Evolutionary policy

We explore the idea of public policy from the perspective of evolutionary thinking. This involves paying attention to concepts like diversity, population, selection, innovation, coevolution, group selection, path-dependence and lock-in. We critically discuss the notion of evolutionary progress. The relevance of evolutionary dynamics is illustrated for policy and political change, technical change, sustainability transitions and regulation of consumer behaviour. A lack of attention for the development of evolutionary policy criteria and goals is identified and alternative choices are critically evaluated. Finally, evolutionary policy advice is compared with policy advice coming from neoclassical economics, public choice theory and theories of resilience and adaptive management. We argue that evolutionary thinking offers a distinct and useful perspective on public policy design and change

Global environmental change, local land use impacts and socio-economic response strategies in coastal regions

This paper addresses the issue of possible land use strategies and responses in coastal zones as a consequence of global environmental change. It willfirst set out some key elements in global change that are of critical importance for the water and land management in such areas. Next, it will map outin more detail the various environmental and socio-economic repercussions of such megatrends. This will then be followed by a discussion of thenecessity to develop proper coastal zone management policy strategies in order to cope with uncertain challenges. In particular, the research needs will be addressed. The paper will then illustrate the potential of integrated coastal zone dynamic and spatial modelling and evaluation, on the basis of anempirical case study for a coastal region. Furthermore, a number of spatio-economic scenarios related to sea level issues in the Netherlands will bepresented. In this context also risk assessment is shortly discussed in relation to sea level rise

Evolutionary modelling in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks

In this paper we present an overview of methods and components of formal economic models employing evolutionary approaches. This compromises two levels: (1) techniques of evolutionary modelling, including multi-agent modelling, evolutionary algorithms and evolutionary game theory; (2) building blocks or components of formal models classified into core processes and features of evolutionary systems - diversity, innovation and selection - and additional elements, such as bounded rationality, diffusion, path dependency and lock-in, co-evolutionary dynamics, multilevel and group selection, and evolutionary growth. We focus our attention on the characteristics of models and techniques and their underlying assumptions

A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality : interactions between car mobility and electricity generation

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552It is widely believed that with the right economic incentives, electrification of transport can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions by 2050. Estimates of future emissions from car transport tend, though, to ignore technological change in electricity generation and bounded rationality of consumers. In this article we address these two shortcomings by developing a novel approach that captures the dynamic interdependence between the car industry and electricity generation. We assess how incorporating realistic behaviors affects estimates of emissions from passengers cars in four models of vehicle adoption, namely with rational, myopic, habit-oriented and loss-aversive consumers. This is then combined with three behavioral models of travel distance, describing rational, habitual and loss-averse drivers. In the electricity sector, technological change occurs through installation of new power plants embodying different energy technologies. This allows us to study the impact of policies promoting renewable energy on the price of electricity, and indirectly on the rate of adoption of electric cars. The findings indicate that substituting renewable energy for fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2050 can triple the electricity price. This undermines the positive effect of subsidies on electric car adoption, with the specific effect depending on particular behaviors assumed to hold. In addition, we show that myopic and loss-averse consumers buy on average less fuel-efficient cars than rational agents. Habitual drivers tend to commute larger distances than rational ones, as they do not adjust their behavior optimally to changes in fuel prices and improvements in fuel efficiencies. These behavioral effects contribute to the rebound effect. Our findings indicate that vehicle choice and driving under rational behavior generate consistently the lowest estimates of life-cycle emissions. By ignoring more realistic behaviors consistent with bounded rationality, current studies underestimate emissions from passenger cars, in turn contributing to overly optimistic expectations about policy impacts