Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men:a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022

Background: Following the 2022–2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks. Aim: We combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: Serum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.Results: The seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks. Conclusion: Our findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.</p

The European Prevalence of Resistance Associated Substitutions among Direct Acting Antiviral Failures

Background: Approximately 71 million people are still in need of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). To achieve the World Health Organization Hepatitis C elimination goals, insight into the prevalence and influence of resistance associated substitutions (RAS) is of importance. Collaboration is key since DAA failure is rare and real-life data are scattered. We have established a European collaboration, HepCare, to perform in-depth analysis regarding RAS prevalence, patterns, and multiclass occurrence. Methods: Data were extracted from the HepCare cohort of patients who previously failed DAA therapy. Geno-and subtypes were provided by submitters and mostly based on in-house assays. They were reassessed using the Comet HCV subtyping tool. We considered RAS to be relevant if they were associated with DAA failure in vivo previously reported in literature. Results: We analyzed 938 patients who failed DAA therapy from ten different European countries. There were 239 genotypes (GT) 1a, 380 GT1b, 19 GT2c, 205 GT3a, 14 GT4a, and 68 GT4d infections. Several unusual subtypes (n = 15) (GT1b/g/l, GT3b, GT4k/n/r/t) were present. RAS appeared in over 80% of failures and over a quarter had three or more RAS. Multiclass RAS varied over target region and genotype between 0-48%. RAS patterns such as the Q30R + L31M and Q30R + Y93H in GT1a, the L31V + Y93H and L31V + Y93H for GT1b, and A30K + L31M and A30K/V + Y93H for GT3a all occurred with a prevalence below 5%. Conclusion: RAS occur frequently after DAA failures and follow a specific genotype and drug related pattern. Interpretation of the influence of RAS on retreatment is challenging due to various patterns, patients' characteristics, and previous treatment history. Moving towards HCV elimination, an ongoing resistance surveillance is essential to track the presence of RAS, RAS patterns and gather data for a re-treatment algorithm

The BAF complex inhibitor pyrimethamine reverses HIV-1 latency in people with HIV-1 on antiretroviral therapy

Reactivation of the latent HIV-1 reservoir is a first step toward triggering reservoir decay. Here, we investigated the impact of the BAF complex inhibitor pyrimethamine on the reservoir of people living with HIV-1 (PLWH). Twenty-eight PLWH on suppressive antiretroviral therapy were randomized (1:1:1:1 ratio) to receive pyrimethamine, valproic acid, both, or no intervention for 14 days. The primary end point was change in cell-associated unspliced (CA US) HIV-1 RNA at days 0 and 14. We observed a rapid, modest, and significant increase in (CA US) HIV-1 RNA in response to pyrimethamine exposure, which persisted throughout treatment and follow-up. Valproic acid treatment alone did not increase (CA US) HIV-1 RNA or augment the effect of pyrimethamine. Pyrimethamine treatment did not result in a reduction in the size of the inducible reservoir. These data demonstrate that the licensed drug pyrimethamine can be repurposed as a BAF complex inhibitor to reverse HIV-1 latency in vivo in PLWH, substantiating its potential advancement in clinical studies.</p

HIV-1 drug-resistance patterns among patients on failing treatment in a large number of European countries

Background: Information about patterns of HIV-1 drug resistance among treatment-exposed patients is crucial for the development of novel effective drugs. Currently no system exists that monitors patterns of resistance in patients failing therapy. Methods: The study included 1,988 HIV-1 sequences from patients experiencing therapy failure collected between 2000 and 2004 in 15 European countries. Genotypic resistance was interpreted using the ANRS algorithm. Phenotypic resistance was predicted using the Virco geno- to phenotype system. Results: 80.7% of the sequences included at least one drug-resistance mutation. Mutations were found for NRTIs (73.5%), NNRTIs (48.5%), and protease inhibitors (35.8%). Ninety percent of sequences with genotypic resistance harbored M184V, M41L, K103N, D67N, and/or T215Y. Among NRTIs, resistance was most frequently predicted for lamivudine. About half of all sequences had reduced susceptibility for NNRTIs. Resistance to most boosted protease inhibitors was found in &lt; 25%. No sequence had resistance to all currently available drugs. Conclusion: Levels of resistance among patients with therapy failure were high. The patterns of resistance reflect resistance to drugs available for a longer time. Fully suppressive regimens can be designed even for the most mutated HIV because boosted protease inhibitors have remained active against most circulating viruses and new drug classes have become available.</p

Transmission of HIV in sexual networks in sub-Saharan Africa and Europe

We are reviewing the literature regarding sexual networks and HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. On Likoma Island in Malawi, a sexual network was reconstructed using a sociometric survey in which individuals named their sexual partners. The sexual network identified one giant component including half of all sexually active individuals. More than 25% of respondents were linked through independent chains of sexual relations. HIV was more common in the sparser regions of the network due to over-representation of groups with higher HIV prevalence. A study from KwaZulu-Natal in South-Africa collected egocentric data about sexual partners and found that new infections in women in a particular area was associated with the number of life-time partners in men. Data about sexual networks and HIV transmission are not reported in Europe. It is, however, found that the annual number of sexual partners follows a scale-free network. Phylogenetic studies that determine genetic relatedness between HIV isolates obtained from infected individuals, found that patients in the early stages of infections explain a high number of new infections. In conclusion, the limited information that is available suggest that sexual networks play a role in spread of HIV. Obtaining more information about sexual networks can be of benefit for modeling studies on HIV transmission and prevention

Inferring epidemiological parameters from phylogenetic information for the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM

The HIV-1 epidemic in Europe is primarily sustained by a dynamic topology of sexual interactions among MSM who have individual immune systems and behavior. This epidemiological process shapes the phylogeny of the virus population. Both fields of epidemic modeling and phylogenetics have a long history, however it remains difficult to use phylogenetic data to infer epidemiological parameters such as the structure of the sexual network and the per-act infectiousness. This is because phylogenetic data is necessarily incomplete and ambiguous. Here we show that the cluster-size distribution indeed contains information about epidemiological parameters using detailed numberical experiments. We simulate the HIV epidemic among MSM many times using the Monte Carlo method with all parameter values and their ranges taken from literature. For each simulation and the corresponding set of parameter values we calculate the likelihood of reproducing an observed cluster-size distribution. The result is an estimated likelihood distribution of all parameters from the phylogenetic data, in particular the structure of the sexual network, the per-act infectiousness, and the risk behavior reduction upon diagnosis. These likelihood distributions encode the knowledge provided by the observed cluster-size distrbution, which we quantify using information theory. Our work suggests that the growing body of genetic data of patients can be exploited to understand the underlying epidemiological process

Characteristics and short- and long-term direct medical costs among adults with timely and delayed presentation for HIV care in the Netherlands

Introduction In Europe, half of people living with HIV (PLWH) present late to care, with associated higher morbidity and mortality. This study aims to assess short- and long-term costs of HIV-care based on time of presentation and identify other factors contributing to higher costs in the first and fifth year after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Material and methods We included ATHENA cohort data which prospectively includes 98% of PLWH in the Netherlands. PLWH who initiated ART in 2013 were included and followed over five years. PLWH were divided in three categories based on CD4 cell-count at time of ART initiation: timely presentation (CD4>350cells/μL), late presentation (CD4 200-350cells/μL or >350cells/μL with AIDS-defining illness) and very late presentation (CD4<200cells/μL). The total HIV-care cost was calculated distinguishing ART medication and non-ART medication costs (hospitalization, outpatient clinic visits, co-medications, and HIV-laboratory tests). Results From 1,296 PLWH, 273 (21%) presented late and 179 (14%) very late. Nearly half of those who entered HIV-care in a very late stage were of non-Dutch origin, with 21% originating from sub-Saharan Africa. The mean cost per patient in the first year was €12,902 (SD €11,098), of which about two-thirds due to ART (€8,250 (SD€3,142)). ART costs in the first and fifth year were comparable regardless of time of presentation. During the first year on treatment, non-ART medication costs were substantially higher among those with late presentation (€4,749 (SD€8,009)) and very late presentation (€15,886 (SD€ 21,834)), compared with timely presentation (€2,407(SD€4,511)). Higher non-ART costs were attributable to hospitalization and co-medication. The total non-ART costs incurred across five years on treatment were 56% and 246% higher for late and very late presentation respectively as compared to timely presentation. Conclusion Very late presentation is associated with substantial costs, with non-ART costs nearly seven times higher than for those presenting timely. Hospitalization and co-medication costs are likely to continue to drive higher costs for individuals with late presentation into the future. Programs that identify individuals earlier will therefore likely provide significant short- and long-term health cost savings