Climate Change and Global Agricultural Potential Project: A Case of Kenya

Kenya is endowed with a wide range of agro-ecological conditions, varying from hot arid lowlands to cool humid highlands. As expected, the results of the impact analysis of climate change and increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide, therefore show a wide spectrum of impacts on land resources make-up and agricultural production. At the sub-national level results of impacts on agricultural productivity vary substantially both in terms of magnitude and direction. At present, agricultural production in the low altitude areas in Kenya is mainly constrained by water availability, highland areas are constrained by low temperatures and locally by water availability, while in parts of central and western Kenya rainfall in excess of optimal levels occurs. Rising temperatures, without corresponding increases in precipitation to balance the increased plant water requirements due to higher evapotranspiration may lead to dramatic reductions in agricultural production potential, especially in eastern and southern Kenya, i.e., in parts of Eastern province, North-Eastern province and Coast province. In central and western Kenya temperature increases would result in larger extents of lands with cultivation potential, because some higher altitude areas would become suitable for cropping. This, together with potentials for higher cropping intensities in these highland areas, more than outweighs effects of diminished moisture conditions, even in scenarios assuming no change in precipitation. Under such conditions in the presently humid areas (>270 days of growing period), diminished wetness, in instances, could reduce the potential impact of pest and disease constraints. Results of the impact assessment suggest that the national level food productivity potential of Kenya may well increase with higher levels of atmospheric CO2 and climate change induced increases in temperature, provided this is accompanied by some increase in precipitation as predicted by several global circulation models. If no balanced increase in precipitation were to take place then the impact on agricultural productivity in the semi-arid parts of Kenya could be devastating. Although land productivity in Kenya as a whole appears most likely positively affected by climate change, impacts vary considerably depending on location. Negative impacts are expected to occur in Coast province and North-Eastern province. The main reasons being: -- Exceeding optimal temperature ranges for photosynthesis and growth; -- Shortening of cereal growth cycles and periods of yield formation; -- Increased water stress. For Central province, Nairobi area, important parts of Eastern province, Nyanza province and Western province the impacts are mostly positive. However, some negative impacts in western Kenya may occur due to pest and disease damage and worsening of workability conditions due to increased wetness. The high-potential agricultural lands in central and western Kenya will dominate the agricultural production potential even more under projected climate change conditions. The main reasons of positive impacts appear to be: -- Temperature increase in the mid/high altitudes, enlarging the area with crop production potential; -- Increased cropping intensity potentials; -- CO2 fertilization. In Rift Valley province, comprising of a wide range of thermal and moisture conditions, impacts are mixed. Negative impacts are, for instance, expected in Laikipia and Narok while positive impacts are anticipated in Nakuru and West Pokot. Despite of overall positive effects for Kenya as a whole, impacts of climate change on land productivity may intensify regional disparities. Therefore, preparedness is critical in order to: -- take advantage of potential blessings of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations; -- mitigate likely negative impacts in low-lying and semi-arid areas; -- cope with the socio-economic consequences of changing patterns of land productivity. These observations are consistent with short and medium term considerations for sustainable development, emphasizing the critical need for careful planning and protection of high potential areas

Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

The challenge of agriculture in the 21st century requires a systemic integration of the environmental, social and economic pillars of development to meet the needs of present generations without sacrificing the livelihoods of future generations. Over the next 50 years, the world population is projected to increase by some 3 billion, primarily in the developing countries. Yet, even today, some 800 million people go hungry daily, and more than a billion live on less than a dollar a day. This food insecurity and poverty affecting one-quarter of the world's population is a sad indictment of the failure to respond adequately in a time of unprecedented scientific progress and economic development. There is no way we can meet food security and poverty concerns without first addressing the issues of sustainable agricultural and rural development. The methodology and results reported in this study form a first comprehensive and integrated global ecological-economic assessment of the impact of climate change on agro-ecosystems in the context of the world food and agricultural system. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have developed a comprehensive methodology based on environmental principles, referred to as the agro-ecological zones methodology. This GIS-based framework combines crop modeling and environmental matching procedures to identify crop-specific environmental limitations under various levels of inputs and management conditions. This has facilitated comprehensive and geographically detailed assessments of climate-change impacts and agricultural vulnerability. The sensitivity of agro-ecosystems to climate change, as determined by the FAO/IIASA Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ) model, was assessed within the socio-economic scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions (SRES). For this purpose, IIASA's global linked model of the world food system was used. This modeling framework, referred to as the Basic Linked System (BLS), comprises a representation of all major economic sectors, and views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which in turn interact with each other at the international level. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through financial flows and trade at the international level. The national models linked in the BLS cover about 80% of the most important attributes related to the world food system, such as population, land, agricultural production, demand, and trade. The remaining countries of the world are grouped into 14 regional models to provide closure for the world system, both geographically and economically. The national models simulate the behavior of producers, consumers, and the government. They distinguish two broad sectors: agriculture and non-agriculture. Agriculture produces nine aggregate commodities. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the IPCC in its Third Assessment Report. The main results of the study include climate-change impacts on the prevalence of environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal production potential. Results of the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. The analysis assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. The methodology and database developed in this study provides a foundation for detailed country studies, incorporating country-level information. The climate change issue is global, long term and involves complex interaction between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional, social and technological processes. It has significant international and intergenerational implications in the context of equity and sustainable development. Climate change will impact on social, economic and environmental systems and shape prospects for sustainable agricultural and rural development. Adaptation to climate change is essential to complement climate change mitigation, and both have to be central to an integrated strategy to reduce risks and impacts of climate change. Most of the discussion on climate change has focused on mitigation measures, for example the Kyoto Protocol. Not much attention has been given to climate change adaptation, which will be critical for many developing countries. The developing world has not realized that this issue needs to be on the global agenda and for developed countries this is not a priority, as they have the means and resources to adapt to future climate change. National governments and the international community must give agriculture and rural sector the highest priority in terms of resource allocation and adoption of development polices that are locally relevant and globally consistent. Only then progress can be made to eradicate hunger and poverty in the world

Assessment of Potential Productivity of Tree Species in China, Mongolia and the Former Soviet Union: Methodology and Results

Over the past twenty years, the term agro-ecological zones methodology (AEZ) has become widely used for global regional and national assessments of agricultural potentials. The AEZ methodologies and procedures have recently been extended and newly implemented to make use of the latest digital geographical databases, and to cope with the specific characteristics of seasonal temperate and boreal climates. This report presents details of a companion model of AEZ that enables assessments of potential productivity of forest tree species. It is referred to a FAEZ. The FAEZ methodology follows an environmental approach; it provides a standardized framework for the characterization of climate, soil and terrain conditions relevant to forest production and it uses environmental matching procedures to identify limitations of prevailing climate, soil and terrain for a range of tree species and assumed management objectives. The model for the estimation of biomass increments is based on two well established and robust models: the Chapman-Richard biomass increment model, and the AEZ potential biomass model. FAEZ includes an inventory of ecological adaptability characteristics as well as an inventory of specific ecological and environmental requirements for 52 boreal and temperate forest tree species. The natural resources inventory is based on the up-to-date LUC-GIS database of climate, soil, terrain and vegetation covering China, Mongolia and former Soviet Union. Results of potential productivity for tree species in North, Central and East Asia are presented under three different sets of assumptions of forest resources management and exploitation, namely: conservation forestry, traditional production forestry and biomass plantation forestry

Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century

In recent years the ability to collect spatial information from volunteers has greatly expanded through the combination of Google Earth, geo-tagged photos and the Internet. A Geo-Wiki has been created to aid in both the validation of existing spatial information and the collection of new information through the powerful resource of crowdsourcing. A case study of a land cover validation Geo-Wiki is described, in which the tool is used to validate existing global land cover products. The potential of such a tool for other applications is also recognized

Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century: Methodology and Results

Over the past 20 years, the term "agro-ecological zones methodology," or AEZ, has become widely used. However, it has been associated with a wide range of different activities that are often related yet quite different in scope and objectives. FAO and IIASA differentiate the AEZ methodology in the following activities: First, AEZ provides a standardized framework for the characterization of climate, soil, and terrain conditions relevant to agricultural production. In this context, the concepts of "length of growing period" and of latitudinal thermal climates have been applied in mapping activities focusing on zoning at various scales, from the subnational to the global level. Second, AEZ matching procedures are used to identify crop-specific limitations of prevailing climate, soil, and terrain resources, under assumed levels of inputs and management conditions. This part of the AEZ methodology provides estimates of maximum potential and agronomically attainable crop yields for basic land resources units. Third, AEZ provides the frame for various applications. The previous two sets of activities result in very large databases. The information contained in these data sets form the basis for a number of AEZ applications, such as quantification of land productivity, extents of land with rain-fed or irrigated cultivation potential, estimation of land's population supporting capacity, and multi-criteria optimization of the use and development of land resources. The AEZ methodology uses a land resources inventory to assess, for specified management conditions and levels of inputs, all feasible agricultural land-use options and to quantify anticipated production of cropping activities relevant in the specific agro-ecological context. The characterization of land resources includes components of climate, soils, and land form. The recent availability of digital global databases of climatic parameters, topography, soil and terrain, and land cover ahs allowed for revisions and improvements in calculation procedures. It has also allowed the expansion of assessments of AEZ crop suitability and land productivity potentials to temperate and boreal environments. This effectively enables global coverage for assessments of agricultural potentials. The AEZ methodologies and procedures have been extended and newly implemented to make use of these digital geographical databases, and to cope with specific characteristics of seasonal temperate and boreal climates. This report describes the methodological adaptations necessary for the global assessment and illustrates with numerous results a wide range of applications

Agro-ecological Assessment for the Transition of the Agricultural Sector in Ukraine: Methodology and Results for Baseline Climate

Since 1991, Ukraine has been undergoing a transformation of its economic and social system to enable the transition to a market economy. There are a number of developments that have already resulted from the changes in the socio-economic environment. However the transformation of farming systems into new forms has not so far greatly improved the sustainable use of natural resources or strengthened the economic performance, so that the influence of this intervention on sustainability of farming systems in Ukraine has had more negative than positive results. Large-scale farms continue to over-exploit natural resources and new private farmers, lacking in experience, knowledge and financial resources, continue to use obsolete technologies that are economically inefficient, do not enhance productivity and may cause land degradation. All the components of the farming sector such as agricultural enterprises, household plots, and individual private farms, still remain problematic in terms of efficiency and are constrained by policies and inadequate markets. While economic conditions for agriculture have changed considerably since the beginning of the 1990s, agricultural policy in Ukraine was focused on trying to revive the production level, without the comprehensive analysis of agro-ecological conditions, internal and external markets, infrastructure, farmers' incentives etc. Rational agricultural land use is imperative in Ukraine. Existing agricultural systems are not appropriate for changing production, technological, economic or ecological realities. There is an urgent need for major policy changes in Ukraine towards rural welfare growth, sustainable agriculture and efficient land management, and establishment of agricultural market networks supported by adequate legislation. With the additional pressure of transition to a market economy, a new agricultural paradigm is required. This paper is the second in a series of three reports on Agro-ecological Assessment for the Transition of the Agricultural Sector in Ukraine. The reports aim at further elaboration of integrated strategies and policies towards maintaining the sustainability of natural resources and the environment while remaining economically viable and internationally competitive. The first report on Socio-economic analysis describes the main socio-economic features of the transition processes in the Ukrainian agricultural sector, trends in agricultural production, and changes in its farming systems and land use. This report "Land Resources and Agricultural Productivity: Methodology and Results for Base Line Climate" provides the inventory of natural (land, climatic) resources and the evaluation of biophysical limitations and potentials of the crop production in Ukraine at the national, regional and subregional levels. The third report "Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity: Methodology and Results" investigates impacts of climate change/variability on the crop production and land use change in Ukraine on national and regional scales and indicates possible ways of adaptation over the coming three decades

Biofuels and Food Security: Implications of an Accelerated Biofuels Production

Biofuels development has received increased attention in recent times as a means to mitigate climate change, alleviate global energy concerns and foster rural development. Its perceived importance in these three areas has seen biofuels feature prominently on the international agenda. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of biofuels production has raised many concerns among experts worldwide, in particular with regard to sustainability issues and the threat posed to food security. The UN Secretary General, in his opening remarks to the High-level Segment of the 16th session of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, stated that: "We need to ensure that policies promoting biofuels are consistent with maintaining food security and achieving sustainable development goals." Aware of a lack of integrated scientific analysis, OFID has commissioned this study, Biofuels and Food Security, which has been prepared by the renowned International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This seminal research work assesses the impact on developing countries of wide-scale production and use of biofuels, in terms of both sustainable agriculture and food security. The unique feature of this study is that its quantified findings are derived from a scenario approach based on a peer reviewed modelling framework, which has contributed to the work of many scientific fora such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the United Nations (Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg). One of the key conclusions of the study is that an accelerated growth of first-generation biofuels production is threatening the availability of adequate food supplies for humans, by diverting land, water and other resources away from food and feed crops. Meanwhile, the "green" contribution of biofuels is seen as deceptive, with mainly second-generation biofuels appearing to offer interesting prospects. Sustainability issues (social, economic and environmental), the impact on land use, as well as many risk aspects are amongst the key issues tackled in the research. With the publication of this study, OFID seeks to uphold its time-honored tradition of promoting debate on issues of special interest to developing countries, including the OFID/OPEC Member States

Soil Data Derived from WISE for Use in Global and Regional AEZ Studies (Version 1.0)

During discussions at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the need was identified for refinement of the agro-edaphic element in the revision of FAO's "Agro-Ecological Zones" AEZ methodology carried out by IIASA and FAO and in the IIASA's "Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Change in Europe and Northern Eurasia" (LUC) project. To this avail, the 4350 soil profile descriptions held in ISRIC's World Inventory of Soil Emission Potential (WISE) database were stratified by soil unit, topsoil textural class and depth zone (0-30 cm and 30-100 cm). Upon a screening on analytical methods used and application of an outlier rejection scheme, derived statistics were generated for 30 soil chemical and physical attributes identified as being important for AEZ studies and analyses of global environmental change. Selected results for Acrisols, classified according to the 1974 version of FAO-Unesco Soil Map of the World Legend, are presented as examples in the Appendices. Special attention was paid to the assessment of Total Available Water Capacity (TAWC), an important parameter in calculation of the length of growing period. Data have been compiled for all the considered combinations of soil unit, topsoil textural class, attribute and depth zone, both for the 1974 and 1990 Legend. Simple taxotranfer rules are introduced to fill some of the gaps that remained in the derived data, notably where sufficient measured data were lacking for particular attributes. As a sequel to the current study, the taxotransfer rules should be fine-tuned and the results should be supplemented with data extracted from the FAO's CD-ROM of the "Digital Soil Map of the World and Derived Soil Properties." This combined database will be revised by a group of soil experts. The recommended level-of-detail for presenting the various results should also be determined at that stage. This follow-up activity is necessary to arrive at a mutually agreed upon set of derived soil properties for land evaluation and environmental studies at the continental and global level, for subsequent release as a unified product to the global modeling community

Biofuels and Food Security

Biofuels development has received increased attention in recent times as a means to mitigate climate change, alleviate global energy concerns and foster rural development. Its perceived importance in these three areas has seen biofuels feature prominently on the international agenda. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of biofuels production has raised many concerns among experts worldwide, in particular with regard to sustainability issues and the threat posed to food security. The UN Secretary General, in his opening remarks to the High-level Segment of the 16th session of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, stated that: "We need to ensure that policies promoting biofuels are consistent with maintaining food security and achieving sustainable development goals." Aware of a lack of integrated scientific analysis, OFID has commissioned this study, Biofuels and Food Security, which has been prepared by the renowned International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This seminal research work assesses the impact on developing countries of wide-scale production and use of biofuels, in terms of both sustainable agriculture and food security. The unique feature of this study is that its quantified findings are derived from a scenario approach based on a peer reviewed modelling framework, which has contributed to the work of many scientific fora such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the United Nations (Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg). One of the key conclusions of the study is that an accelerated growth of first-generation biofuels production is threatening the availability of adequate food supplies for humans, by diverting land, water and other resources away from food and feed crops. Meanwhile, the "green" contribution of biofuels is seen as deceptive, with mainly second-generation biofuels appearing to offer interesting prospects. Sustainability issues (social, economic and environmental), the impact on land use, as well as many risk aspects are amongst the key issues tackled in the research. With the publication of this study, OFID seeks to uphold its time-honored tradition of promoting debate on issues of special interest to developing countries, including the OFID/OPEC Member States

Can China Feed Itself? An Analysis of China's Food Prospects with Special Reference to Water Resources

Water is certainly an important factor in China's food security. Some authors have argued that up to 70% of the country's grain production depends on irrigation. Since the water resources for agriculture in northern China are getting increasingly exhausted and diverted to urban and industrial consumption, they have published grim predictions of food shortages. The following analysis uses a detailed agro-climatic model to estimate China's maximum grain production potential under rain-fed and irrigated conditions. It shows that far less than 70% of China's grain production critically depends on irrigation. Large areas in the south and some areas in the north-east can produce substantial amounts of grain using only natural precipitation. According to our model, some 492 million tons of grain can be produced at current technology without additional irrigation. However, depending on diet, this may still not be enough for China's grain demand in 2025, which was estimated at up to 650 million tons. Only with additional irrigation would China be able to produce these amounts of grain. According to our model, the country has a grain production potential of some 672 million tons, if irrigation is available in those areas, that do not have enough precipitation for rain-fed cultivation. Water conservation in irrigation and the development of water resources for agriculture is therefore for China's food security