Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : results from the Nordic cohort study

Background: The aim was to develop prediction rules that may guide early treatment decisions based on baseline clinical predictors of long-term unfavorable outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods: In the Nordic JIA cohort, we assessed baseline disease characteristics as predictors of the following outcomes 8 years after disease onset. Non-achievement of remission off medication according to the preliminary Wallace criteria, functional disability assessed by Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) and Physical Summary Score (PhS) of the Child Health Questionnaire, and articular damage assessed by the Juvenile Arthritis Damage Index-Articular (JADI-A). Multivariable models were constructed, and cross-validations were performed by repeated partitioning of the cohort into training sets for developing prediction models and validation sets to test predictive ability. Results: The total cohort constituted 423 children. Remission status was available in 410 children: 244 (59.5%) of these did not achieve remission off medication at the final study visit. Functional disability was present in 111/340 (32.7%) children assessed by CHAQ and 40/199 (20.1%) by PhS, and joint damage was found in 29/216 (13.4%). Model performance was acceptable for making predictions of long-term outcome. In validation sets, the area under the curves (AUCs) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.78 (IQR 0.72-0.82) for non-achievement of remission off medication, 0.73 (IQR 0.67-0.76) for functional disability assessed by CHAQ, 0.74 (IQR 0.65-0.80) for functional disability assessed by PhS, and 0.73 (IQR 0.63-0.76) for joint damage using JADI-A. Conclusion: The feasibility of making long-term predictions of JIA outcome based on early clinical assessment is demonstrated. The prediction models have acceptable precision and require only readily available baseline variables. Further testing in other cohorts is warranted.Peer reviewe

Long‐term outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : Eighteen Years of Follow-Up in the Population-Based Nordic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Cohort

Objective The present study was undertaken to assess the long-term course, remission rate, and disease burden in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) 18 years after disease onset in a population-based setting from the early biologic era. Methods A total of 510 consecutive cases of JIA with disease onset between 1997 and 2000 from defined geographic regions in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland were prospectively included in this 18-year cohort study. At the follow-up visit, patient-reported demographic and clinical data were collected. Results The study included 434 (85%) of the 510 eligible JIA participants. The mean +/- SD age was 24.0 +/- 4.4 years. The median juvenile arthritis disease activity score in 71 joints (JADAS-71) was 1.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 0-5), with the enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA) category of JIA having the highest median score (4.5 [IQR 1.5-8.5], P = 0.003). In this cohort, 46% of patients still had active disease, and 66 (15%) were treated with synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and 84 (19%) with biologics. Inactive disease indicated by a JADAS-71 score of Conclusion A substantial proportion of the JIA cohort did not achieve CR despite new treatment options during the study period. The ERA category showed the worst outcomes, and in general there is still a high burden of disease in adulthood for JIA.Peer reviewe

Early Self-Reported Pain in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis as Related to Long-Term Outcomes : Results From the Nordic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Cohort Study

Objective To study self-reported pain early in the disease course of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) as a predictor of long-term disease outcomes. Methods Consecutive cases of JIA with disease onset from 1997 to 2000 from defined geographical areas of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark were prospectively enrolled in this population-based cohort study. Self-reported, disease-related pain was measured on a 10-cm visual analog scale (VAS pain). Inclusion criteria were a baseline visit with a pain score 6 months after disease onset, followed by an 8-year study visit. Remission was defined according to Wallace et al (2004) preliminary criteria. Functional disability was measured by the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire and the Child Health Questionnaire Parent Form if the child was age = 18 years. Damage was scored using the Juvenile Arthritis Damage Index. Results The final study cohort consisted of 243 participants, and 120 participants (49%) had oligoarticular onset. At baseline, 76% reported a VAS pain score >0 compared to 57% reporting at 8 years. Half of those who reported baseline pain also reported pain at 8 years but at a lower intensity. Compared to no pain, higher pain intensity at baseline predicted more pain at 8 years, more functional disability, more damage, and less remission without medication. Baseline pain predicted more use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs/biologics during the disease course. Participants with oligoarticular JIA reporting pain at baseline were more likely to develop extended oligoarticular JIA or other JIA categories with an unfavorable prognosis. Conclusion Early self-reported, disease-related pain among children and adolescents with JIA is common and seems to predict persistent pain and unfavorable long-term disease outcomes.Peer reviewe

Proceedings Of The 23Rd Paediatric Rheumatology European Society Congress: Part Two

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