Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

When does NICE recommend the use of health technologies within a programme of evidence development?

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: There is growing interest internationally in linking reimbursement decisions with recommendations for further research. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) can issue guidance to approve the routine use of a health intervention, reject routine use or recommend use within a research programme. These latter recommendations have restricted use to ‘only in research’ (OIR) or have recommended further research alongside routine use (‘approval with research’ or AWR). However, it is not currently clear when such recommendations are likely to be made. Objectives: This study aims to identify NICE technology appraisals where OIR or AWR recommendations were made and to examine the key considerations that led to those decisions. Methods: Draft and final guidance including OIR/AWR recommendations were identified. The documents were reviewed to establish the characteristics of the technology appraisal, the cost effectiveness of the technologies, the key considerations that led to the recommendations and the types of research required. Results: In total, 29 final and 31 draft guidance documents included OIR/AWR recommendations up to January 2010. Overall, 86 % of final guidance included OIR recommendations. Of these, the majority were for technologies considered to be cost ineffective (83 %) and the majority of final guidance (66 %) specified the need for further evidence on relative effectiveness. The use of OIR/AWR recommendations is decreasing over time and they have rarely been used in appraisals conducted through the single technology appraisal process. Conclusion: NICE has used its ability to recommend technologies within research programmes, although predominantly within the multiple technology appraisal process. OIR recommendations have been most frequently issued for technologies considered cost ineffective and the most frequently cited consideration is uncertainty related to relative effectiveness. Key considerations cited for most AWR recommendations and some OIR recommendations included a need for further evidence on long-term outcomes and adverse effects of treatment.Medical Research Counci

E-Voting in an ubicomp world: trust, privacy, and social implications

The advances made in technology have unchained the user from the desktop into interactions where access is anywhere, anytime. In addition, the introduction of ubiquitous computing (ubicomp) will see further changes in how we interact with technology and also socially. Ubicomp evokes a near future in which humans will be surrounded by “always-on,” unobtrusive, interconnected intelligent objects where information is exchanged seamlessly. This seamless exchange of information has vast social implications, in particular the protection and management of personal information. This research project investigates the concepts of trust and privacy issues specifically related to the exchange of e-voting information when using a ubicomp type system

Regulating Clothing Outwork: A Sceptic's View

By applying the strategies of international anti-sweatshop campaigns to the Australian context, recent regulations governing home-based clothing production hold retailers responsible for policing the wages and employment conditions of clothing outworkers who manufacture clothing on their behalf. This paper argues that the new approach oversimplifies the regulatory challenge by assuming (1) that Australian clothing production is organised in a hierarchical ‘buyer-led’ linear structure in which core retail firms have the capacity to control their suppliers’ behaviour; (2) that firms act as unitary moral agents; and (3) that interventions imported from other times and places are applicable to the contemporary Australian context. After considering some alternative regulatory approaches, the paper concludes that the new regulatory strategy effectively privatises responsibility for labour market conditions – a development that cries out for further debate

The cost of changing physical activity behaviour: Evidence from a "physical activity pathway" in the primary care setting

Copyright @ 2011 Boehler et al.BACKGROUND: The ‘Physical Activity Care Pathway’ (a Pilot for the ‘Let’s Get Moving’ policy) is a systematic approach to integrating physical activity promotion into the primary care setting. It combines several methods reported to support behavioural change, including brief interventions, motivational interviewing, goal setting, providing written resources, and follow-up support. This paper compares costs falling on the UK National Health Service (NHS) of implementing the care pathway using two different recruitment strategies and provides initial insights into the cost of changing physical activity behaviour. METHODS: A combination of a time driven variant of activity based costing, audit data through EMIS and a survey of practice managers provided patient-level cost data for 411 screened individuals. Self reported physical activity data of 70 people completing the care pathway at three month was compared with baseline using a regression based ‘difference in differences’ approach. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses in combination with hypothesis testing were used to judge how robust findings are to key assumptions and to assess the uncertainty around estimates of the cost of changing physical activity behaviour. RESULTS: It cost £53 (SD 7.8) per patient completing the PACP in opportunistic centres and £191 (SD 39) at disease register sites. The completer rate was higher in disease register centres (27.3% vs. 16.2%) and the difference in differences in time spent on physical activity was 81.32 (SE 17.16) minutes/week in patients completing the PACP; so that the incremental cost of converting one sedentary adult to an ‘active state’ of 150 minutes of moderate intensity physical activity per week amounts to £ 886.50 in disease register practices, compared to opportunistic screening. CONCLUSIONS: Disease register screening is more costly than opportunistic patient recruitment. However, additional costs come with a higher completion rate and better outcomes in terms of behavioural change in patients completing the care pathway. Further research is needed to rigorously evaluate intervention efficiency and to assess the link between behavioural change and changes in quality adjusted life years (QALYs).This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

The economic costs of intrapartum care in Tower Hamlets: a comparison between the cost of birth in a freestanding midwifery unit and hospital for women at low risk of obstetric complications

Objective To compare the economic costs of intrapartum maternity care in an inner city area for ‘low risk’ women opting to give birth in a freestanding midwifery unit compared with those who chose birth in hospital. Design Micro-costing of health service resources used in the intrapartum care of mothers and their babies during the period between admission and discharge, data extracted from clinical notes Setting The Barkantine Birth Centre, a freestanding midwifery unit and the Royal London Hospital’s consultant-led obstetric unit, both run by the former Barts and the London NHS Trust in Tower Hamlets, a deprived inner city borough in east London, England, 2007-2010. Participants Maternity records of 333 women who were resident in Tower Hamlets and who satisfied the Trust’s eligibility criteria for using the Birth Centre. Of these, 167 women started their intrapartum care at the Birth Centre and 166 started care at the Royal London Hospital. Measurements and findings Women who planned their birth at the Birth Centre experienced continuous intrapartum midwifery care, higher rates of spontaneous vaginal delivery, greater use of a birth pool, lower rates of epidural use, higher rates of established breastfeeding and a longer post-natal stay, compared with those who planned for care in the hospital. The total average cost per mother-baby dyad for care where mothers started their intrapartum care at the Birth Centre was £1296.23, approximately £850 per patient less than the average cost per mother and baby who received all their care at the Royal London Hospital. These costs reflect intrapartum throughput using bottom up costing per patient, from admission to discharge, including transfer, but excluding occupancy rates and the related running costs of the units. Key conclusions and implications for practice The study showed that intrapartum throughput in the Birth Centre could be considered cost-minimising when compared to hospital. Modelling the financial viability of midwifery units at a local level is important because it can inform the appropriate provision of these services. This finding from this study contribute a local perspective and thus further weight to the evidence from the Birthplace Programme in support of freestanding midwifery unit care for women without obstetric complications

Partnership, ownership and control: the impact of corporate governance on employment relations

Prevailing patterns of dispersed share ownership and rules of corporate governance for UK listed companies appear to constrain the ability of managers to make credible, long-term commitments to employees of the kind needed to foster effective labour-management partnerships. We present case study evidence which suggests that such partnerships can nevertheless emerge where product market conditions and the regulatory environment favour a stakeholder orientation. Proactive and mature partnerships may also be sustained where the board takes a strategic approach to mediating between the claims of different stakeholder groups, institutional investors are prepared to take a long-term view of their holdings, and strong and independent trade unions are in a position to facilitate organisational change

Are Tanzanian patients attending public facilities or private retailers more likely to adhere to artemisinin-based combination therapy?

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is first-line treatment for malaria in most endemic countries and is increasingly available in the private sector. Most studies on ACT adherence have been conducted in the public sector, with minimal data from private retailers. METHODS: Parallel studies were conducted in Tanzania, in which patients obtaining artemether-lumefantrine (AL) at 40 randomly selected public health facilities and 37 accredited drug dispensing outlets (ADDOs) were visited at home and questioned about doses taken. The effect of sector on adherence, controlling for potential confounders was assessed using logistic regression with a random effect for outlet. RESULTS: Of 572 health facility patients and 450 ADDO patients, 74.5% (95% CI: 69.8, 78.8) and 69.8% (95% CI: 64.6, 74.5), respectively, completed treatment and 46.0% (95% CI: 40.9, 51.2) and 34.8% (95% CI: 30.1, 39.8) took each dose at the correct time ('timely completion'). ADDO patients were wealthier, more educated, older, sought care later in the day, and were less likely to test positive for malaria than health facility patients. Controlling for patient characteristics, the adjusted odds of completed treatment and of timely completion for ADDO patients were 0.65 (95% CI: 0.43, 1.00) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.47, 1.01) times that of health facility patients. Higher socio-economic status was associated with both adherence measures. Higher education was associated with completed treatment (adjusted OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.36); obtaining AL in the evening was associated with timely completion (adjusted OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.64). Factors associated with adherence in each sector were examined separately. In both sectors, recalling correct instructions was positively associated with both adherence measures. In health facility patients, but not ADDO patients, taking the first dose of AL at the outlet was associated with timely completion (adjusted OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.46, 3.04). CONCLUSION: When controlling for patient characteristics, there was some evidence that the adjusted odds of adherence for ADDO patients was lower than that for public health facility patients. Better understanding is needed of which patient care aspects are most important for adherence, including the role of effective provision of advice

Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study

When patients randomised to the control group of a randomised controlled trial are allowed to switch onto the experimental treatment, intention-to-treat analyses of the treatment effect are confounded because the separation of randomised groups is lost. Previous research has investigated statistical methods that aim to estimate the treatment effect that would have been observed had this treatment switching not occurred and has demonstrated their performance in a limited set of scenarios. Here, we investigate these methods in a new range of realistic scenarios, allowing conclusions to be made based upon a broader evidence base. We simulated randomised controlled trials incorporating prognosis-related treatment switching and investigated the impact of sample size, reduced switching proportions, disease severity, and alternative data-generating models on the performance of adjustment methods, assessed through a comparison of bias, mean squared error, and coverage, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. Rank preserving structural failure time models, inverse probability of censoring weights, and two-stage methods consistently produced less bias than the intentionto-treat analysis. The switching proportion was confirmed to be a key determinant of bias: sample size and censoring proportion were relatively less important. It is critical to determine the size of the treatment effect in terms of an acceleration factor (rather than a hazard ratio) to provide information on the likely bias associated with rank-preserving structural failure time model adjustments. In general, inverse probability of censoring weight methods are more volatile than other adjustment methods