Pakistan: Prospects for Private Capital Flows and Financial Sector Development

In less than a decade after the debt crisis of 1982, developing countries have experienced a surge of capital inflows in recent years. This trend became more pronounced in the 1990s resulting in overall balance of payments surpluses and accumulation of reserves. Total private capital inflows to developing countries exceeded $173 billion in 1994, compared to annual average inflows of$34 billion during 1983–90 [World Bank (1995)]. Although the characteristics of capital inflows in this episode are different than in the period prior to the last debt crisis, nevertheless concerns about macroeconomic stability, loss in competitiveness, financial sector vulnerability and excessive borrowing remain the same. While the rise in inflows during 1991–93 was supported in part by low interest rates and weak economic activity in industrial countries, improved economic policies and prospects in most recipient countries also played an important role. The larger share in inflows of those countries that achieved greater progress in economic reforms, is evidence of the importance of recipient country policies. During this period, the composition of private flows to developing countries also became more diversified. Foreign direct investment (FDI) accounted for 45 percent of total equity inflows in 1994, with debt accounting for 32 percent and portfolio flows accounting for the remaining 23 percent. According to a recent assessment [World Bank (1995)], overall private capital flows to developing countries are likely to continue to increase in the medium term, though at a much slower pace than in the early 1990s, growing on average at about 7–10 percent annually. Many countries are at the limit of prudential borrowing, so at most their net liabilities can rise in line with exports. However, within this overall trend, some economies in Asia and several transitional economies are likely to see a larger increase.

EFFECTIVENESS OF NON-CONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY TOOL: EVENT-STUDY ANALYSIS OF MAJOR EUROZONE ECONOMIES

This study examines the effectiveness of European Central Bank asset purchase program (quantitative easing) on the long-term interest rates. In particular, the study evaluates the effectiveness or influence of the European Central Bank’s non-conventional monetary policy tool, quantitative easing (also known as asset purchase program) on the yield of  5-year sovereign government bonds of Eurozone economies. The main objective and the motivation for this study is to provide the compact effects or influence of the quantitative easing in the Eurozone economies, as the current literature on quantitative easing insufficiently covers the effects of quantitative easing in the euro area. The duration of the quantitative easing or asset purchase program is from the end of 2014 until the first quarter of 2017; however, the currently available literature only studies the effects of the asset purchase program until mid of 2016. Very few researches are published after the completion of the quantitative program that estimates or evaluate the complete influence of the program on the long-term interest rates and economic indicators. Whereas, this research provides a complete solution to the literature gap by studying the influence of all the quantitative easing related announcements made by ECB from June 2014 to January 2017, or the whole period of extended asset purchase program conducted by ECB.            The research questions that the study aims to answer is that if the ECB announcements related to quantitative easing influence the long-term interest rates via influencing the 5-year government bonds. If the impact on the 5-year government bond yield is only influenced by those ECB announcements that contain new information related to asset purchase program. If the impact of quantitative easing or asset purchase program is larger on the weaker Eurozone economies namely Spain and Italy, as compared to the impact of the same program on stronger Eurozone economies including Germany and France            This research uses the event-study analysis methodology. Under the event study method, the research first estimates the abnormal variation in the yield of 5-year government bonds of the four largest Eurozone economies around the announcements made by European Central Bank regarding the quantitative easing or asset purchase program in the monetary policy statement. Later the study evaluates if abnormal variation in 5-year government bond yield around such announcements has statistical and economic significance. The sample of four 5-year government bonds of the four largest economies of Eurozone, namely Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, are considered for the research..            The research made key contributions to the literature on the subject of quantitative easing focused on the euro area. The statistical results of the research conclude that the ECB announcements negatively (decrease) influence the 5-year government bond yields. While the event-study results and the hypothesis revolve around measuring the effectiveness and influence of the non-conventional monetary policy tools used by ECB, the study also discovered a key pattern that the influence of such asset purchase program is much larger on weaker economies of the dataset like Spain and Italy, as compared to strong candidates i.e. Germany and France. The study also discovered that the abnormal variations in yields only occur around those central bank announcement that has a surprise element or that has a new information related the monetary policy.            The results of the study also show economic significance. The results show that at the initiation of the asset purchase program or quantitative easing, the inflation rates across Europe were between -1% to 0.8%, which is far below the optimal inflation rate of 2%. However, at the end of asset purchase program in the first quarter of 2017, the monthly inflation rates in Germany, France, Spain and Italy has increased to 2%, 1.4%, 2.6% and 2% respectively. At the beginning of the asset purchase program the quarterly GDP growth rate in sample countries was between -0.2% to 0.4%, whereas, at the end of the asset purchase program or quantitative easing in the second quarter of 2017, the quarterly GDP growth rate of Germany, France, Spain and Italy increased to 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Hence all the results derived from the event-study analysis are consistent with the hypothesis proposed under this research. JEL: E31, E4, E5  Article visualizations

Macroeconomics Relations between Exchange Rate Instability, Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade and Economic Growth Variables: The Case of Pakistan

This paper aims to determine whether Exchange Rate instability of Pakistan, affects it’s imports , Exports, Trade Balances, Foreign Exchange Reserves and GDP of Pakistan or not, and if so then in what direction. We have used pooled data from 1952 to 2010 (on annual basis), indirect exchange rate quotations (Dollars per Rupee) are used. We have estimated our equation by running each variable at lag 3, Estimated equation of explanatory variables (Exchange Rate, imports, Exports, Foreign Reserves) for explained variable (GDP) exhibits a significant relationship, which is highly sensitive. A change 1 basis point in exchange rate can result in thousand of USD change in GDP. The depreciation of exchange rate has a positive impact on the exports, but sudden and abrupt fluctuation in exchange rates can disturb economic growth. We have used: Correlation Removal methods, Multi-collinerity Detection and Removal Tests, Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Auto correlation Detection and Removal Tests, in-order to make our model and it’s variable, a “good predictor” for determining the Trade Balances of Pakistan, significant enough, for future predictions about GDP. Keywords: Exchange rate instability-Volatility, Trade, Imports, Exports, Economic Growth, Reserves Money, Auto-Correlation Detection & Removal Test, Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Multi-Collinerity

Fruit Pigment Biogenesis in Raspberry Cultivars: Characterisation of Anthocyanin and Carotenoid Biosynthesis

Raspberry (Rubus idaeus L.) is a nutrient-rich fruit crop containing high yields of natural bioactive compounds, such as flavonoids and carotenoids, which are known to have potential health benefits in humans. Various colored raspberry fruits offer a unique possibility to study the genetics of pigment biosynthesis in this important soft fruit. Anthocyanidin synthase (Ans) catalyzes the conversion of colorless leucoanthocyanidins to colored anthocyanidins, a key step in biosynthesis of anthocyanins. The current study revealed that reduced anthocyanins in yellow raspberry (“Anne”) were due to loss of function mutation or inactive ans allele. A 5-bp insertion (ans+5) in the coding region creates a premature stop codon resulting in a truncated protein of 264 amino acids, compared to 414 amino acids of wild type ANS of red raspberry “Tulameen”. Apparently, the mutated ans gene transcripts are suppressed as a secondary effect because of nonsense-mRNA mediated decay (NMD). Functional characterization and complementation of Ans/ans alleles in planta provide strong proof of inactive ANS protein of “Anne” as compared to the functional protein of “Tulameen”. Further, molecular screening of various colored raspberries for Ans/ans alleles indicated that most of the yellow and orange fruiting raspberries contain various types of ans mutations that cause frameshifts and initiate premature stop codons leading to loss of function of the ANS proteins. In anthocyanin-free varieties, yellow/orange fruit pigmentation seems to exist as a net result of accumulation/degradation of specific carotenoids at ripe stage. The putative carotenoid pathway genes from Rubus “Anne” inserted in standard expression cassettes along with plasmids capable of generating different carotenoid precursors resulted in the successful characterization of the pathway genes via complementation in a bacterial host. It suggests that accumulation of β-branch carotenoids like β-carotene and xanthophylls (lutein) are the principal components that provide yellow coloration to anthocyanin-free raspberry fruits. Taken together, molecular and functional characterization of the carotenoid pathway genes helped to predict a preliminary pathway map for pigmentation in non-red (yellow, orange) fruiting raspberries

Performance studies of oil lubricated helical groove journal bearing

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.The provision of helical grooves on the surface of a plain journal bearing can improve the stability of a rotor-bearing system. However, the improvement depends on the arrangement of the grooves along the axial length of the bearing. In order to verify this improved stability three types of helical groove bearing and a reference plain journal bearing were investigated. The helical groove journal bearings were: a symmetrical, an asymmetrical and a partial grooved bearing. The bearing test rig was used to measure the oil flow rate, load carrying capacity, power losses, bearing surface temperatures, and stability characteristics. A theoretical model was developed to calculate the load carrying capacity, stiffness and damping coefficients, and stability characteristics of the various types of bearing. The experimental and theoretical results show that at the expense of a reduced load capacity the helical groove bearings are more stable particularly at low eccentricity ratios. However, the experimental observations showed that the partial helical groove bearing is not a practical bearing because the bearing becomes misaligned above certain load. For a given eccentricity ratio and speed the symmetrical bearing ran hotter and with greater power losses in comparison to the other three bearings. At the same eccentricity ratio and speed, the asymmetrical bearing ran at about the same temperature as the plain journal bearing.Financial support was obtained from the Government of Pakistan

Revitalization of The Public Sphere: A Comparison between Habermasian and The New Public Sphere

‘Public sphere’ is an important component of modern polity. Civil society brings the state in touch with the needs of the citizens through the medium of public sphere. However, Habermas argues that ‘public sphere’ experienced refeudalization owing to various factors i.e. propaganda, cultural industry, market and state intervention. The ‘public’ was condemned to be mere spectator again. This article argues that modern technologies enabled new public sphere (NPS) can help restore public status as participant in the democratic process. The article compares the Habermasian ideal of public sphere with NPS and constructs a matrix, depicting the various related aspects between the two models for highlighting the revival of the public sphere

A review on the outbreak of termite (Coptotermes curvignathus) in rubber plantation / Muhammad Zubair Rosslan

Termites have become one of the major pests that attack rubber and affected their economic life. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the termite infestation that causes damage in rubber plantation in Malaysia and also to evaluate the related factor that affect the termite infestation. Effect of termite infestation can be described based on the situation occurs at the rubber plantation. In order to prevent the termite outbreak, both good agricultural practices and integrated pest management should be applied. The termite starts to damage the rubber trees at any age and also cause damage in housing, forestry and also agriculture. Termite usually caused death of rubber trees in plantations. Termite often hollow out or ‘pipe’ the heartwood of the trunk once it attack rubber and most cases this may not fatal the tree but it does greatly reduce the value of the timber. Common indicator of severe C. curvignathus infestation recorded was extensive mud plastering around the bases of the tree trunks. There are many factors that contribute to the outbreak of termite such as food availability, fungal decay, history of wood damage, moisture content and temperature