One man, one bid

© 2016 Elsevier Inc. We compare two mechanisms to implement a simple binary choice, e.g. adopt one of two proposals. We show that when neither alternative is ex ante preferred, simple majority voting cannot implement the first best outcome. We introduce a simple bidding mechanism where votes can be bought at a quadratic cost and voters receive rebates equal to the average of others' payments. This mechanism is budget-balanced, individually rational, and fully efficient in the limit. Moreover, the mechanism redistributes from those that gain from the outcome to those that lose and everyone is better off under bidding compared to voting. We test the two mechanisms in the lab using an environment with “moderate” and “extremist” voters. The observed efficiency losses under voting are close to theoretical predictions and significantly larger than under bidding. Because of redistribution, the efficiency gain from bidding benefits mostly the moderate voters

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. DESIGN: A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. PATIENTS: 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. RESULTS: The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships

Noisy Introspection in the 11–20 Game

© 2017 Royal Economic Society Previous experiments based on the 11–20 game have produced evidence for the level-k model with observed levels of strategic thinking consistently ranging from 0 to 3. Our baseline treatment uses the 11–20 game and replicates previous results. We apply four models of strategic thinking to the baseline-treatment data and use these to predict behaviour and beliefs in five other treatments that employ games with a very similar structure. The best predictive performance is achieved by models that incorporate ‘common knowledge of noise’. A model of noisy introspection, which does so, predicts behaviour remarkably well

A Multi Agent Recommender System that Utilises Consumer Reviews in its Recommendations

Consumer reviews, opinions and shared experiences in the use of a product form a powerful source of information about consumer preferences that can be used for making recommendations. A novel approach, which utilises this valuable information sources first time to create recommendations in recommender agents was recently developed by Aciar et al. (2007). This paper presents a general framework of this approach. The proposed approach is demonstrated using digital camera reviews as an example

Magnetars and pulsars: a missing link

There is growing evidence that soft gamma-ray repeaters (SGRs) and anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) are isolated neutron stars with superstrong magnetic fields, i.e., magnetars, marking them a distinguished species from the conventional species of spindown-powered isolated neutron stars, i.e., radio pulsars. The current arguments in favor of the magnetar interpretation of SGR/AXP phenomenology will be outlined, and the two energy sources in magnetars, i.e. a magnetic dissipation energy and a spindown energy, will be reviewed. I will then discuss a missing link between magnetars and pulsars, i.e., lack of the observational evidence of the spindown-powered behaviors in known magnetars. Some recent theoretical efforts in studying such behaviors will be reviewed along with some predictions testable in the near future.Comment: Invited talk at the Sixth Pacific Rim Conference on Stellar Astrophysics, a tribute to Helmut A. Abt, July 11-17, 2002, Xi'an. To appear in the proceedings (eds. K. S. Cheng, K. C. Leung & T. P. Li

External validation of ADO, DOSE, COTE and CODEX at predicting death in primary care patients with COPD using standard and machine learning approaches

Background Several models for predicting the risk of death in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exist but have not undergone large scale validation in primary care. The objective of this study was to externally validate these models using statistical and machine learning approaches. Methods We used a primary care COPD cohort identified using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Age-standardised mortality rates were calculated for the population by gender and discrimination of ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction), COTE (COPD-specific comorbidity test), DOSE (dyspnoea, airflow obstruction, smoking, exacerbations) and CODEX (comorbidity, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction, exacerbations) at predicting death over 1–3 years measured using logistic regression and a support vector machine learning (SVM) method of analysis. Results The age-standardised mortality rate was 32.8 (95%CI 32.5–33.1) and 25.2 (95%CI 25.4–25.7) per 1000 person years for men and women respectively. Complete data were available for 54879 patients to predict 1-year mortality. ADO performed the best (c-statistic of 0.730) compared with DOSE (c-statistic 0.645), COTE (c-statistic 0.655) and CODEX (c-statistic 0.649) at predicting 1-year mortality. Discrimination of ADO and DOSE improved at predicting 1-year mortality when combined with COTE comorbidities (c-statistic 0.780 ADO + COTE; c-statistic 0.727 DOSE + COTE). Discrimination did not change significantly over 1–3 years. Comparable results were observed using SVM. Conclusion In primary care, ADO appears superior at predicting death in COPD. Performance of ADO and DOSE improved when combined with COTE comorbidities suggesting better models may be generated with additional data facilitated using novel approaches

Human motion tracking based on complementary Kalman filter

Miniaturized Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) has been widely used in many motion capturing applications. In order to overcome stability and noise problems of IMU, a lot of efforts have been made to develop appropriate data fusion method to obtain reliable orientation estimation from IMU data. This article presents a method which models the errors of orientation, gyroscope bias and magnetic disturbance, and compensate the errors of state variables with complementary Kalman filter in a body motion capture system. Experimental results have shown that the proposed method significantly reduces the accumulative orientation estimation errors

Depressive and post-traumatic stress symptoms following termination of pregnancy in South African women: A longitudinal study measuring the effects of chronic burden, crisis support and resilience

 Background. Termination of pregnancy (TOP) remains a controversial issue, regardless of legislation. Access to services as well as psychological effects may vary across the world.Objectives and methods. To better understand the psychological effects of TOP, this study describes the circumstances of 102 women who underwent a TOP from two socioeconomic sites in Johannesburg, South Africa, one serving women with few economic resources and the other serving women with adequate resources. The relationship between demographic characteristics, resilience and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression before, 1 month after and 3 months after the procedure was also examined.Results. Time since TOP, age, chronic burden, resilience and the interaction of site with religion and site with chronic burden were significant. In addition, site differences were found for religion and chronic burden in predicting depression scores. Women from both sites had significant decreases in depression scores over time. The interaction of time with site was not significant. Higher chronic burden scores correlated with higher depression scores. No variables were significant in the bivariate analysis for PTSD.Conclusion. Resilience, religion and chronic burden emerge as significant variables in women undergoing a first-trimester TOP, and warrant further assessment in studies of this nature

Beat-to-beat ambulatory blood pressure estimation based on random forest

Ambulatory blood pressure is critical in predicting some major cardiovascular events; therefore, cuff-less and noninvasive beat-to-beat ambulatory blood pressure measure-ment is of great significance. Machine-learning methods have shown the potential to derive the relationship between physio-logical signal features and ABP. In this paper, we apply random forest method to systematically explorer the inherent connections between photoplethysmography signal, electrocardiogram signal and ambulatory blood pressure. To archive this goal, 18 features were extracted from PPG and ECG signals. Several models with most significant features as inputs and beat-to-beat ABP as outputs were trained and tested on data from the Multi-Parameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II database. Results indicate that compared with the common pulse transit time method, the RF method gives a better performance for one-hour continuous estimation of diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure under both the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation and British Hyper-tension Society standard