HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement) as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user.We argue that this hides rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of circulation models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future global and regional circulation model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies

HESS Opinions “should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?”

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement) as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user.We argue that this hides rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of circulation models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future global and regional circulation model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies

HESS Opinions: Functional units: a novel framework to explore the link between spatial organization and hydrological functioning of intermediate scale catchments

This opinion paper proposes a novel framework for exploring how spatial organization alongside with spatial heterogeneity controls functioning of intermediate scale catchments of organized complexity. Key idea is that spatial organization in landscapes implies that functioning of intermediate scale catchments is controlled by a hierarchy of functional units: hillslope scale lead topologies and embedded elementary functional units (EFUs). We argue that similar soils and vegetation communities and thus also soil structures "co-developed" within EFUs in an adaptive, self-organizing manner as they have been exposed to similar flows of energy, water and nutrients from the past to the present. Class members of the same EFU (class) are thus deemed to belong to the same ensemble with respect to controls of the energy balance and related vertical flows of capillary bounded soil water and heat. Class members of superordinate lead topologies are characterized by the same spatially organized arrangement of EFUs along the gradient driving lateral flows of free water as well as a similar surface and bedrock topography. We hence postulate that they belong to the same ensemble with respect to controls on rainfall runoff transformation and related vertical and lateral fluxes of free water. We expect class members of these functional units to have a distinct way how their architecture controls the interplay of state dynamics and integral flows, which is typical for all members of one class but dissimilar among the classes. This implies that we might infer on the typical dynamic behavior of the most important classes of EFU and lead topologies in a catchment, by thoroughly characterizing a few members of each class. A major asset of the proposed framework, which steps beyond the concept of hydrological response units, is that it can be tested experimentally. In this respect, we reflect on suitable strategies based on stratified observations drawing from process hydrology, soil physics, geophysics, ecology and remote sensing which are currently conducted in replicates of candidate functional units in the Attert basin (Luxembourg), to search for typical and similar functional and structural characteristics. A second asset of this framework is that it blueprints a way towards a structurally more adequate model concept for water and energy cycles in intermediate scale catchments, which balances necessary complexity with falsifiability. This is because EFU and lead topologies are deemed to mark a hierarchy of "scale breaks" where simplicity with respect to the energy balance and stream flow generation emerges from spatially organized process-structure interactions. This offers the opportunity for simplified descriptions of these processes that are nevertheless physically and thermodynamically consistent. In this respect we reflect on a candidate model structure that (a) may accommodate distributed observations of states and especially terrestrial controls on driving gradients to constrain the space of feasible model structures and (b) allows testing the possible added value of organizing principles to understand the role of spatial organization from an optimality perspective

Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change

Throughout its historical development, hydrology as an earth science, but especially as a problem-centred engineering discipline has largely relied (quite successfully) on the assumption of stationarity. This includes assuming time invariance of boundary conditions such as climate, system configurations such as land use, topography and morphology, and dynamics such as flow regimes and flood recurrence at different spatio-temporal aggregation scales. The justification for this assumption was often that when compared with the temporal, spatial, or topical extent of the questions posed to hydrology, such conditions could indeed be considered stationary, and therefore the neglect of certain long-term non-stationarities or feedback effects (even if they were known) would not introduce a large error. However, over time two closely related phenomena emerged that have increasingly reduced the general applicability of the stationarity concept: the first is the rapid and extensive global changes in many parts of the hydrological cycle, changing formerly stationary systems to transient ones. The second is that the questions posed to hydrology have become increasingly more complex, requiring the joint consideration of increasingly more (sub-) systems and their interactions across more and longer timescales, which limits the applicability of stationarity assumptions. Therefore, the applicability of hydrological concepts based on stationarity has diminished at the same rate as the complexity of the hydrological problems we are confronted with and the transient nature of the hydrological systems we are dealing with has increased. The aim of this paper is to present and discuss potentially helpful paradigms and theories that should be considered as we seek to better understand complex hydrological systems under change. For the sake of brevity we focus on catchment hydrology. We begin with a discussion of the general nature of explanation in hydrology and briefly review the history of catchment hydrology. We then propose and discuss several perspectives on catchments: as complex dynamical systems, self-organizing systems, co-evolving systems and open dissipative thermodynamic systems. We discuss the benefits of comparative hydrology and of taking an information-theoretic view of catchments, including the flow of information from data to models to predictions. In summary, we suggest that these perspectives deserve closer attention and that their synergistic combination can advance catchment hydrology to address questions of change

Novel interactions of transglutaminase-2 with heparan sulphate proteoglycans: reflection on physiological implications

This mini-review brings together information from publications and recent conference proceedings that have shed light on the biological interaction between transglutaminase-2 and heparan sulphate proteoglycans. We subsequently draw hypothesis of possible implications in the wound healing process. There is a substantial overlap in the action of transglutaminase-2 and the heparan sulphate proteoglycan syndecan-4 in normal and abnormal wound repair. Our latest findings have identified syndecan-4 as a possible binding and signalling partner of fibronectinbound TG2 and support the idea that transglutaminase-2 and syndecan-4 acts in synergy

Time-resolved infra-red studies of photo-excited porphyrins in the presence of nucleic acids and in HeLa tumour cells: insights into binding site and electron transfer dynamics

Cationic porphyrins based on the 5,10,15,20-meso-(tetrakis-4-N-methylpyridyl) core (TMPyP4) have been studied extensively over many years due to their strong interactions with a variety of nucleic acid structures, and their potential use as photodynamic therapeutic agents and telomerase inhibitors. In this paper, the interactions of metal-free TMPyP4 and Pt(II)TMPyP4 with guanine-containing nucleic acids are studied for the first time using time-resolved infrared spectroscopy (TRIR). In D2O solution (where the metal-free form exists as D2TMPyP4) both compounds yielded similar TRIR spectra (between 1450–1750 cm−1) following pulsed laser excitation in their Soret B-absorption bands. Density functional theory calculations reveal that vibrations centred on the methylpyridinium groups are responsible for the dominant feature at ca. 1640 cm−1. TRIR spectra of D2TMPyP4 or PtTMPyP4 in the presence of guanosine 5'-monophosphate (GMP), double-stranded {d(GC)5}2 or {d(CGCAAATTTGCG)}2 contain negative-going signals, ‘bleaches’, indicative of binding close to guanine. TRIR signals for D2TMPyP4 or PtTMPyP bound to the quadruplex-forming cMYC sequence {d(TAGGGAGGG)}2T indicate that binding occurs on the stacked guanines. For D2TMPyP4 bound to guanine-containing systems, the TRIR signal at ca. 1640 cm−1 decays on the picosecond timescale, consistent with electron transfer from guanine to the singlet excited state of D2TMPyP4, although IR marker bands for the reduced porphyrin/oxidised guanine were not observed. When PtTMPyP is incorporated into HeLa tumour cells, TRIR studies show protein binding with time-dependent ps/ns changes in the amide absorptions demonstrating TRIR's potential for studying light-activated molecular processes not only with nucleic acids in solution but also in biological cells

<i>HESS Opinions</i> "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement) as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this hides rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of circulation models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future global and regional circulation model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies