Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty. In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980–2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia. A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions. Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease

Impact of contact tracing on COVID-19 mortality: an impact evaluation using surveillance data from Colombia

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor-intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations using empirical data have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact tracing strategies to improve infection control. METHODS: We obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N = 54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). As suggested by WHO guidelines, we proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days, and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on daily COVID-19 mortality. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for the prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed. RESULTS: We found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing is instrumental in containing infectious diseases. Its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will substantially impact reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC

Safety profile of nifurtimox and treatment interruption for chronic Chagas disease in Colombian adults

Nifurtimox (NFX) is one of the approved drugs used to treat Chagas disease. Safety profile studies and models on risk factors for treatment interruption in adults are scarce in Latin America. This study evaluated retrospectively the medical records of adult Chagas disease patients treated with NFX between 2007 and 2012 in Bogotá, Colombia. An accelerated failure time model was used, and associations were expressed as time ratio (TR). In total, 76 adult patients with NFX were included: 60 (79.0%) completed 60 days of treatment, 61 (80.3%) presented adverse drug reactions (ADRs), and 16 (21.0%) required treatment interruption. The predominant symptoms were epigastric pain (23.7%), nauseas (18.4%), sleep disturbances (18.4%), loss of appetite (17.1%), and temporary loss of memory (15.2%). ADRs were classified as mild (64.5%), moderate (30.4%), and severe (5.1%). Time of treatment was significantly longer when presenting ≤ 3 ADRs (TR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.04–3.03), presence of non-severe ADRs (TR: 6.52; 95% CI: 3.24–13.1), doses of NFX ≤ 8 mg/kg/day (TR: 1.78; 95% CI: 0.90–3.49), and age < 48 years (TR: 1.57; 95% CI: 0.90–2.74). Treatment with NFX in adults caused a high frequency of ADRs, but most of the cases were mild and did not require treatment interruption. Severity and number of ADRs were the main predictors for treatment interruption

Molecular epidemiology of human oral Chagas disease outbreaks in Colombia

Background Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, displays significant genetic variability revealed by six Discrete Typing Units (TcI-TcVI). In this pathology, oral transmission represents an emerging epidemiological scenario where different outbreaks associated to food/beverages consumption have been reported in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela. In Colombia, six human oral outbreaks have been reported corroborating the importance of this transmission route. Molecular epidemiology of oral outbreaks is barely known observing the incrimination of TcI, TcII, TcIV and TcV genotypes. Methodology and Principal Findings High-throughput molecular characterization was conducted performing MLMT (Multilocus Microsatellite Typing) and mtMLST (mitochondrial Multilocus Sequence Typing) strategies on 50 clones from ten isolates. Results allowed observing the occurrence of TcI, TcIV and mixed infection of distinct TcI genotypes. Thus, a majority of specific mitochondrial haplotypes and allelic multilocus genotypes associated to the sylvatic cycle of transmission were detected in the dataset with the foreseen presence of mitochondrial haplotypes and allelic multilocus genotypes associated to the domestic cycle of transmission. Conclusions These findings suggest the incrimination of sylvatic genotypes in the oral outbreaks occurred in Colombia. We observed patterns of super-infection and/or co-infection with a tailored association with the severe forms of myocarditis in the acute phase of the disease. The transmission dynamics of this infection route based on molecular epidemiology evidence was unraveled and the clinical and biological implications are discussed. Author Summary Chagas disease represents a serious health problem affecting more than 10 million people in the Americas. The oral transmission route has emerged as a new epidemiological scenario that needs to be considered in prevention and control strategies. Herein was developed a high-resolution molecular characterization using mtMLST and MLMT tools in order to unravel the molecular epidemiology and transmission dynamics drivers in six well-characterized human oral outbreaks in Colombia. We observed the majority of clones typed as TcI and one clone as TcIV. The analysis of mitochondrial haplotypes allowed us to observe a high frequency of sylvatic haplotypes and a low proportion of domestic haplotypes. Likewise, a tailored allelic profile by each outbreak was observed. Our results suggest that sylvatic populations of T. cruzi are the causative agents of Chagas disease oral outbreaks and these findings should help to pursue new initiatives of control and prevention in those areas where domiciliated vectorial transmission has been interrupted

Risk factors for treatment interruption and severe adverse effects to benznidazole in adult patients with Chagas disease

Background Etiological treatment of Chagas disease in chronic asymptomatic patients is still in debate and the adverse effects of traditional drugs are one of the main concerns in clinical practice. This study evaluated retrospectively the safety profile of benznidazole (BZN) and identified predictive factors for definite treatment interruption and development of severe reactions in adult patients treated with BZN in Colombia. Methods Retrospective follow-up study conducted by review of medical records of adults with chronic Chagas disease treated with BZN in Colombia. A parametric survival analysis based on a generalized gamma distribution was used for assessing risk factors for treatment interruption. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of severe adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Statistical associations were expressed as time ratios (TR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) respectively. Results In total 224 adults patients treated with BZN were included; 172 (76.8%) completed the standard therapy (60 days of treatment), 205 (91.5%) presented ADRs and 52 cases (23.2%) required treatment interruption. The predominant symptoms were: rash (37.9%), itching (33.7%), epigastric pain (26.4%), abdominal bloating (24.2%) and nausea (22.1%). ADRs were mild (57.4%), moderate (35.5%) and severe (7.3%). Time to treatment interruption was significantly shorter when using doses of BZN ≥ 6 mg/kg/day (TR 0.55; 95% CI 0.39–0.76), presenting severe ADRs (TR 0.12; 95% CI: 0.07–0.19) and eosinophilia (TR 0.68; 95% CI: 0.49–0.94). Female sex (aOR 3.98; 95% CI 1.56–10.16), dose of BZN ≥ 6 mg/kg/day (aOR 1.41; 95% CI 1.17–1.70) and presence of > 3 ADRs (aOR 6.47; 95% CI 1.24–34.34) were considered as risk factors for developing severe ADRs. Conclusions Dose, severity of ADRs, eosinophilia and female sex were the main predictors for treatment interruption or severe ADRs. The potential implications of these findings are discussed

Increased CD4(+)/CD8(+) double-positive T Cells in chronic chagasic patients

Background CD4+/CD8+ double positive (DP) T cells have been described in healthy individuals as well as in patients with autoimmune and chronic infectious diseases. In chronic viral infections, this cell subset has effector memory phenotype and displays antigen specificity. No previous studies of double positive T cells in parasite infections have been carried out. Methodology/Principal Findings Seventeen chronic chagasic patients (7 asymptomatic and 10 symptomatic) and 24 non-infected donors, including 12 healthy and 12 with non-chagasic cardiomyopathy donors were analyzed. Peripheral blood was stained for CD3, CD4, CD8, HLA-DR and CD38, and lymphocytes for intracellular perforin. Antigen specificity was assessed using HLA*A2 tetramers loaded with T. cruzi K1 or influenza virus epitopes. Surface expression of CD107 and intracellular IFN-γ production were determined in K1-specific DP T cells from 11 chagasic donors. Heart tissue from a chronic chagasic patient was stained for both CD8 and CD4 by immunochemistry. Chagasic patients showed higher frequencies of DP T cells (2.1%±0.9) compared with healthy (1.1%±0.5) and non-chagasic cardiomyopathy (1.2%±0.4) donors. DP T cells from Chagasic patients also expressed more HLA-DR, CD38 and perforin and had higher frequencies of T. cruzi K1-specific cells. IFN-γ production in K1-specific cells was higher in asymptomatic patients after polyclonal stimulation, while these cells tended to degranulate more in symptomatic donors. Immunochemistry revealed that double positive T cells infiltrate the cardiac tissue of a chagasic donor. Conclusions Chagasic patients have higher percentages of circulating double positive T cells expressing activation markers, potential effector molecules and greater class I antigenic specificity against T. cruzi. Although K1 tetramer positive DP T cell produced little IFN-γ, they displayed degranulation activity that was increased in symptomatic patients. Moreover, K1-specific DP T cells can migrate to the heart tissue

Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon is Brazil’s greatest natural resource and invaluable to the rest of the world as a buffer against climate change. The recent election of Brazil’s president brought disputes over development plans for the region back into the spotlight. Historically, the development model for the Amazon has focused on exploitation of natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. Although considerable attention has focused on the long-term global cost of “losing the Amazon,” too little attention has focused on the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne diseases that directly impact the local population, with spillover effects to other neighboring areas. We discuss the impact of Amazon development models on human health, with a focus on vector-borne disease risk. We outline policy actions that could mitigate these negative impacts while creating opportunities for environmentally sensitive economic activities