Influence of Arctic sea-ice variability on Pacific trade winds.

A conceptual model connecting seasonal loss of Arctic sea ice to midlatitude extreme weather events is applied to the 21st-century intensification of Central Pacific trade winds, emergence of Central Pacific El Nino events, and weakening of the North Pacific Aleutian Low Circulation. According to the model, Arctic Ocean warming following the summer sea-ice melt drives vertical convection that perturbs the upper troposphere. Static stability calculations show that upward convection occurs in annual 40- to 45-d episodes over the seasonally ice-free areas of the Beaufort-to-Kara Sea arc. The episodes generate planetary waves and higher-frequency wave trains that transport momentum and heat southward in the upper troposphere. Regression of upper tropospheric circulation data on September sea-ice area indicates that convection episodes produce wave-mediated teleconnections between the maximum ice-loss region north of the Siberian Arctic coast and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These teleconnections generate oppositely directed trade-wind anomalies in the Central and Eastern Pacific during boreal winter. The interaction of upper troposphere waves with the ITCZ air-sea column may also trigger Central Pacific El Nino events. Finally, waves reflected northward from the ITCZ air column and/or generated by triggered El Nino events may be responsible for the late winter weakening of the Aleutian Low Circulation in recent years

Effects of eddy vorticity forcing on the mean state of the Kuroshio Extension

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1356–1375, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-0259.1.Eddy–mean flow interactions along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet are investigated using a vorticity budget of a high-resolution ocean model simulation, averaged over a 13-yr period. The simulation explicitly resolves mesoscale eddies in the KE and is forced with air–sea fluxes representing the years 1995–2007. A mean-eddy decomposition in a jet-following coordinate system removes the variability of the jet path from the eddy components of velocity; thus, eddy kinetic energy in the jet reference frame is substantially lower than in geographic coordinates and exhibits a cross-jet asymmetry that is consistent with the baroclinic instability criterion of the long-term mean field. The vorticity budget is computed in both geographic (i.e., Eulerian) and jet reference frames; the jet frame budget reveals several patterns of eddy forcing that are largely attributed to varicose modes of variability. Eddies tend to diffuse the relative vorticity minima/maxima that flank the jet, removing momentum from the fast-moving jet core and reinforcing the quasi-permanent meridional meanders in the mean jet. A pattern associated with the vertical stretching of relative vorticity in eddies indicates a deceleration (acceleration) of the jet coincident with northward (southward) quasi-permanent meanders. Eddy relative vorticity advection outside of the eastward jet core is balanced mostly by vertical stretching of the mean flow, which through baroclinic adjustment helps to drive the flanking recirculation gyres. The jet frame vorticity budget presents a well-defined picture of eddy activity, illustrating along-jet variations in eddy–mean flow interaction that may have implications for the jet’s dynamics and cross-frontal tracer fluxes.A. S. Delman (ASD) and J. L. McClean (JLM) were supported by NSF Grant OCE-0850463 and Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-05ER64119. ASD and J. Sprintall were also supported by a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship (NESSF), Grant NNX13AM93H. JLM was also supported by U.S. DOE Office of Science grant entitled “Ultra-High Resolution Global Climate Simulation” via a Los Alamos National Laboratory subcontract. S. R. Jayne was supported by NSF Grant OCE-0849808. Computational resources for the model run were provided by NSF Resource Grants TG-OCE110013 and TG-OCE130010.2015-11-0

The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño Event

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) was formed in late 1996 with the aim of fostering the improvement, production, and use of global forecasts of seasonal to interannual climate variability for the explicit benefit of society. The development of the 1997/98 El Niño provided an ideal impetus to the IRI Experimental Forecast Division (IRI EFD) to generate seasonal climate forecasts on an operational basis. In the production of these forecasts an extensive suite of forecasting tools has been developed, and these are described in this paper. An argument is made for the need for a multimodel ensemble approach and for extensive validation of each model's ability to simulate interannual climate variability accurately. The need for global sea surface temperature forecasts is demonstrated. Forecasts of precipitation and air temperature are presented in the form of "net assessments," following the format adopted by the regional consensus forums. During the 1997/98 El Niño,the skill of the net assessments was greater than chance, except over Europe, and in most cases was an improvement over a forecast of persistence of the latest month's climate anomaly

The Fine-Scale Structure of the Global Tropopause Derived from COSMIC GPS Radio Occultation Measurements

The spatiotemporal structure of the lapse-rate tropopause is examined by using state-of-the-art Global Positioning System radio occultation measurements from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Formosa Satellite Mission 3 mission. The high temporal and spatial resolutions of the data reveal the detailed structure of tropopause properties such as pressure (pt), temperature (Tt), and sharpness (Nt^2) and their relationships to upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric processes. The overall results are generally in good agreement with previous studies. The climatology of all three tropopause properties shows largely homogeneous structure in the zonal direction: noticeable asymmetries are found only in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter owing to localized tropospheric processes. This contrasts with the seasonal cycles of tropopause properties which are significantly influenced by stratospheric processes such as the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the polar vortex, and the radiative processes near the tropopause. On intraseasonal time scales, pt and Tt exhibit significant variability over the Asian summer monsoon and the subtropics where double tropopauses frequently occur. In contrast, Nt^2 shows maximum variability in the tropics where pt and Tt have minimum variability, possibly a consequence of vertically propagating waves. The tropopause properties derived from COSMIC observations are further applied to evaluate tropopause data directly available from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (NNR). Although the NNR tropopause data have been widely used in climate studies, they are found to have significant and systematic biases, especially in the subtropics. This suggests that the NNR tropopause data should be treated with great caution in any quantitative studies

Horizontal transport affecting trace gas seasonality in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL)

We analyze horizontal transport from midlatitudes into the tropics (in-mixing) and its impact on seasonal variations of ozone, carbon monoxide and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). For this purpose, we use three-dimensional backward trajectories, driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim winds, and a conceptual one-dimensional model of the chemical composition of the TTL. We find that the fraction of in-mixed midlatitude air shows an annual cycle with maximum during NH summer, resulting from the superposition of two inversely phased annual cycles for in-mixing from the NH and SH, respectively. In-mixing is driven by the monsoonal upper-level anticyclonic circulations. This circulation pattern is dominated by the Southeast Asian summer monsoon and, correspondingly, in-mixing shows an annual cycle. The impact of in-mixing on TTL mixing ratios depends on the in-mixed fraction of midlatitude air and on the meridional gradient of the particular species. For CO the meridional gradient and consequently the effect of in-mixing is weak. For water vapor, in-mixing effects are negligible. For ozone, the meridional gradient is large and the contribution of in-mixing to the ozone maximum during NH summer is about 50%. This in-mixing contribution is not sensitive to the tropical ascent velocity, which is about 40% too fast in ERA-Interim. As photochemically produced ozone in the TTL shows no distinct summer maximum, the ozone annual anomaly in the upper TTL turns out to be mainly forced by in-mixing of ozone-rich extratropical air during NH summer

Interhemispheric dynamical coupling to the southern mesosphere and lower thermosphere

Extent: 14p.Wind observations obtained between 1995 and 2011 using the MF radar at Davis have been used to demonstrate the modifying role the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) plays on some aspects of interhemispheric coupling identified by previous authors. The response of the meridional wind in the southern summer polar MLT to changes in winter stratospheric planetary wave activity is shown to change sign according to the phase of the QBO. The time delay associated with the coupling is also shown to vary with QBO phase, with an eastward QBO providing a more rapid response. Coupling to the MLT meridional winds is strongest in January. Parts of the mechanism currently proposed have been tested using UKMO assimilated observations. The signatures of some aspects of this mechanism are present in the data. However, some differences to the mechanism are also apparent, in particular the effectiveness of the mechanism near the equator. An explanation for the QBO modulation of the MLT wind response to interhemispheric coupling is proposed on the basis of these differences.D. J. Murphy, S. P. Alexander, and R. A. Vincen

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change

Coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean response to ocean heat flux convergence along the Kuroshio Current Extension

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 36 (2011): 2295-2312, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0764-8.The winter response of the coupled atmosphere-ocean mixed layer system to anomalous geostrophic ocean heat flux convergence in the Kuroshio Extension is investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an entraining ocean mixed layer model in the extra-tropics. The direct response consists of positive SST anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension and a baroclinic (low-level trough and upper-level ridge) circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. The low-level component of this atmospheric circulation response is weaker in the case without coupling to an extratropical ocean mixed layer, especially in late winter. The inclusion of an interactive mixed layer in the tropics modifies the direct coupled atmospheric response due to a northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which drives an equivalent barotropic anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Although the tropically-driven component of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation response is comparable to the direct response in terms of sea level pressure amplitude, it is less important in terms of wind stress curl amplitude due to the mitigating effect of the relatively broad spatial scale of the tropically-forced atmospheric teleconnection.We gratefully acknowledge financial support from NOAA’s Office of Global Programs (grant to C. Deser and Y.-O. Kwon). Y.-O. Kwon is also supported through the Claudia Heyman Fellowship of the WHOI Ocean Climate Change Institute