Geospatial variations and determinants of contraceptive utilization among married reproductive age women in Ethiopia: spatial and multilevel analysis of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, 2019

IntroductionContraception is the most effective method of preventing unwanted pregnancies and their associated disadvantages. It is critical to recognize one's desire to utilize contraceptives before drafting and implementing a good family planning program, especially in developing nations like Ethiopia.ObjectiveThis study aimed to identify the geospatial variations and determinants affecting the utilization of contraceptives among married reproductive age women in Ethiopia.MethodThis study was based on an extensive national survey, the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. A total weighted sample of 5,743 married reproductive-age women was included. Because of the hierarchical nature of the DHS data, a spatial analysis multilevel logistic regression model was used to study individual and community-level factors that may influence contraceptives. The Bernoulli model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan software to analyze the purely spatial clusters of contraceptive usage. ArcGIS version 10.3 was used to visualize the distribution of contraceptives. A 95% confidence interval and a p-value of less than 0.05 were used to declare statistical significance.ResultThe overall utilization of contraceptives was discovered at 41.25% (39.98, 42.53). Participants age range of 25–34 years [AOR = 0.80, CI: (0.66, 0.96,)] and 35–49 years [AOR = 0.50, CI 95%:(0.66, 0.96)] times less likely to use contraceptives than 15–24 years old respectively. Having primary [AOR = 1.47, CI 95%: (1.25, 1.73)], secondary [AOR = 1.42, CI 95%: (1.09, 1.83)] and higher education level [AOR = 1.92, CI 95%: (1.41, 2.60)], middle wealth [AOR = 1.48, CI 95%: (1.14, 1.90)], richer [AOR = 1.41, CI 95%: (1.07, 1.86)] and richest [AOR = 2.17, CI 95%: (1.52, 3.11)], having 1–4 ANC follow up have [AOR = 1.60, CI 95%: (1.26, 2.03)], gave birth at age of 35–44 [AOR = 0.29, CI 95%: (0.22, 0.37)], having 3–5 children [AOR = 1.26, CI 95%: (1.03, 1.52)], being from community of high level women education [AOR = 1.61, CI 95%: (1.21, 2.15)] were associated positively. Participants from Amhara, Oromia, Benishangul and SNNPR regions have revealed [AOR = 2.40, CI 95%: (1.53, 3.77)], [AOR = 1.64, CI 95%: (1.05, 2.56)], [AOR = 1.62, CI 95%: (1.01, 2.62)] and [AOR = 2.04, CI 95: (1.31, 3.19)], in contrast, Somali and Afar regions have shown [AOR = 011, CI 95%: (0.05, 0.22)] and [AOR = 0.31, CI 95%: (0.18, 0.54)] times less likely to use contraceptive services than Tigray Region respectively. The spatial analysis of contraceptive usage discovered that the northern, central and southern parts of the country had higher utilization of contraceptives than the eastern and northeastern of the country.ConclusionThe study revealed that contraceptive usage among married women is comparatively low, with wide regional variation. Raising awareness among mothers about the importance of antenatal care and assisting mothers who are financially disadvantaged or do not have access to health facilities will aid in providing better family planning services. Improving contraceptive information dissemination at community and regional levels is key to averting potential barriers

Myopia and its associated factors among pregnant women at health institutions in Gondar District, Northwest Ethiopia: A multi-center cross-sectional study

BackgroundMyopia is the most common form of uncorrected refractive error with a growing burden worldwide. It is the principal complaint of most women during pregnancy. Although myopia has led to several consequences across the standard life of pregnant women, there is no previous study in Ethiopia regarding this topic. Thus, this study determined the prevalence of myopia and identifies its associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care units at governmental health institutions in Gondar City District, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsAn institution-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from 08 February to 08 April 2021. From the selected health centres, study participants were recruited by systematic random sampling technique. A pre-tested, structured-interviewer-administered questionnaire consisting of socio-demographic variables, obstetric and clinical-related variables was used to collect the required data. Non-cycloplegic refraction was performed using trial lenses, trial frames, and retinoscopy in a semi-dark examination room. EpiData 3 and STATA 14 were used for data entry and statistical analysis respectively. Both bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were executed to identify associated factors of myopia. Variables with a p-value ≤0.05 in the multivariable logistic regression analysis were declared as statistically significant with myopia. Model fitness was checked by Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of test (at p > 0.05)ResultsA total of four-hundred and twenty-three pregnant women participated with a 100% response rate in this study. The overall prevalence of myopia among pregnant women was 26.48% (95% CI: 22.48–30.91). Eighty-Eight (20.81%) and Eighty-Four (19.85%) of the study participants had myopia in their right and left eyes respectively. The prevalence of myopia was significantly associated with age (AOR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.28), the third trimester of gestation (AOR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.08–3.90), multi & grand multipara (AOR = 3.15; 95% CI: 1.59–6.25), and history of contraceptive use (AOR = 3.30; 95% CI: 1. 50–7.28).ConclusionThe finding of our study shows that there is a higher prevalence of myopia among pregnant women in our study area. Further prospective analytical studies regarding visual systems among pregnant women, particularly as a result of pregnancy, are strongly recommended

Diagnostic accuracy of oral glucose tolerance tests, fasting plasma glucose and haemoglobin A1c for type 2 diabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims: To inform international guidelines, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess the performance of diagnostic methods for type 2 diabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Methods: An updated systematic search was conducted on five databases from 2017 until October 2023 and combined with prior searches (from inception). Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy tests were conducted. Results: Nine studies comprising 2628 women with PCOS were included. Against the oral glucose tolerance test, a haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5% had a pooled sensitivity of 50.00% (95% confidence interval (CI): 35.53–64.47), specificity of 99.86% (95%CI: 99.49–99.98), and positive and negative predictive values of 92.59% (95%CI: 75.27–98.09) and 98.27% (95%CI: 97.73–98.68), respectively, with an accuracy of 98.17% (95%CI: 97.34–98.79). Fasting plasma glucose values ≥ 7.0 mmol/L had a pooled sensitivity of 58.14% (95%CI: 42.13–72.99), specificity of 92.59% (95%CI: 75.35–98.08), positive and negative predictive values of 92.59% (95%CI: 75.35–98.08) and 99.09% (95%CI: 98.71–99.36), respectively, and an accuracy of 99.00% (95%CI: 98.46–99.39) against the oral glucose tolerance test. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review assessing the performance of diagnostic methods for type 2 diabetes in women with PCOS. We demonstrate that using a cut-off for HbA1c of ≥6.5% in this population may result in misdiagnosis of half of the women with type 2 diabetes. Our results directly informed the recommendations of the 2023 International PCOS Guideline, suggesting that the oral glucose tolerance test is the optimal method for screening and diagnosing type 2 diabetes in women with PCOS and is superior to fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c.</p

Diagnostic accuracy of oral glucose tolerance tests, fasting plasma glucose and haemoglobin A1c for type 2 diabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims: To inform international guidelines, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess the performance of diagnostic methods for type 2 diabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Methods: An updated systematic search was conducted on five databases from 2017 until October 2023 and combined with prior searches (from inception). Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy tests were conducted. Results: Nine studies comprising 2628 women with PCOS were included. Against the oral glucose tolerance test, a haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5% had a pooled sensitivity of 50.00% (95% confidence interval (CI): 35.53–64.47), specificity of 99.86% (95%CI: 99.49–99.98), and positive and negative predictive values of 92.59% (95%CI: 75.27–98.09) and 98.27% (95%CI: 97.73–98.68), respectively, with an accuracy of 98.17% (95%CI: 97.34–98.79). Fasting plasma glucose values ≥ 7.0 mmol/L had a pooled sensitivity of 58.14% (95%CI: 42.13–72.99), specificity of 92.59% (95%CI: 75.35–98.08), positive and negative predictive values of 92.59% (95%CI: 75.35–98.08) and 99.09% (95%CI: 98.71–99.36), respectively, and an accuracy of 99.00% (95%CI: 98.46–99.39) against the oral glucose tolerance test. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review assessing the performance of diagnostic methods for type 2 diabetes in women with PCOS. We demonstrate that using a cut-off for HbA1c of ≥6.5% in this population may result in misdiagnosis of half of the women with type 2 diabetes. Our results directly informed the recommendations of the 2023 International PCOS Guideline, suggesting that the oral glucose tolerance test is the optimal method for screening and diagnosing type 2 diabetes in women with PCOS and is superior to fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c.</p

Recommendations from the 2023 international evidence-based guideline for the assessment and management of polycystic ovary syndrome

Study question What is the recommended assessment and management of those with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), based on the best available evidence, clinical expertise, and consumer preference? Summary answer International evidence-based guidelines address prioritized questions and outcomes and include 254 recommendations and practice points, to promote consistent, evidence-based care and improve the experience and health outcomes in PCOS. What is known already The 2018 International PCOS Guideline was independently evaluated as high quality and integrated multidisciplinary and consumer perspectives from 6 continents; it is now used in 196 countries and is widely cited. It was based on best available, but generally very low- to low-quality, evidence. It applied robust methodological processes and addressed shared priorities. The guideline transitioned from consensus-based to evidence-based diagnostic criteria and enhanced accuracy of diagnosis, whilst promoting consistency of care. However, diagnosis is still delayed, the needs of those with PCOS are not being adequately met, the evidence quality was low, and evidence-practice gaps persist. Study design, size, and duration The 2023 International Evidence-based Guideline update re-engaged the 2018 network across professional societies and consumer organizations with multidisciplinary experts and women with PCOS directly involved at all stages. Extensive evidence synthesis was completed. Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation II (AGREEII)-compliant processes were followed. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework was applied across evidence quality, feasibility, acceptability, cost, implementation, and ultimately recommendation strength, and diversity and inclusion were considered throughout. Participants/materials, setting, and methods This summary should be read in conjunction with the full guideline for detailed participants and methods. Governance included a 6-continent international advisory and management committee, 5 guideline development groups, and paediatric, consumer, and translation committees. Extensive consumer engagement and guideline experts informed the update scope and priorities. Engaged international society-nominated panels included paediatrics, endocrinology, gynaecology, primary care, reproductive endocrinology, obstetrics, psychiatry, psychology, dietetics, exercise physiology, obesity care, public health, and other experts, alongside consumers, project management, evidence synthesis, statisticians, and translation experts. Thirty-nine professional and consumer organizations covering 71 countries engaged in the process. Twenty meetings and 5 face-to-face forums over 12 months addressed 58 prioritized clinical questions involving 52 systematic and 3 narrative reviews. Evidence-based recommendations were developed and approved via consensus across 5 guideline panels, modified based on international feedback and peer review, independently reviewed for methodological rigour, and approved by the Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council. Main results and the role of chance The evidence in the assessment and management of PCOS has generally improved in the past 5 years but remains of low to moderate quality. The technical evidence report and analyses (∼6000 pages) underpin 77 evidence-based and 54 consensus recommendations, with 123 practice points. Key updates include the following: (1) further refinement of individual diagnostic criteria, a simplified diagnostic algorithm, and inclusion of anti-Müllerian hormone levels as an alternative to ultrasound in adults only; (2) strengthening recognition of broader features of PCOS including metabolic risk factors, cardiovascular disease, sleep apnoea, very high prevalence of psychological features, and high risk status for adverse outcomes during pregnancy; (3) emphasizing the poorly recognized, diverse burden of disease and the need for greater healthcare professional education, evidence-based patient information, improved models of care, and shared decision-making to improve patient experience, alongside greater research; (4) maintained emphasis on healthy lifestyle, emotional well-being, and quality of life, with awareness and consideration of weight stigma; and (5) emphasizing evidence-based medical therapy and cheaper and safer fertility management. Limitations and reasons for caution Overall, recommendations are strengthened and evidence is improved but remains generally low to moderate quality. Significantly greater research is now needed in this neglected, yet common condition. Regional health system variation was considered and acknowledged, with a further process for guideline and translation resource adaptation provided. Wider implications of the findings The 2023 International Guideline for the Assessment and Management of PCOS provides clinicians and patients with clear advice on best practice, based on the best available evidence, expert multidisciplinary input, and consumer preferences. Research recommendations have been generated, and a comprehensive multifaceted dissemination and translation programme supports the guideline with an integrated evaluation programme

Recommendations from the 2023 international evidence-based guideline for the assessment and management of polycystic ovary syndrome

STUDY QUESTION What is the recommended assessment and management of those with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), based on the best available evidence, clinical expertise, and consumer preference? SUMMARY ANSWER International evidence-based guidelines address prioritized questions and outcomes and include 254 recommendations and practice points, to promote consistent, evidence-based care and improve the experience and health outcomes in PCOS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The 2018 International PCOS Guideline was independently evaluated as high quality and integrated multidisciplinary and consumer perspectives from six continents; it is now used in 196 countries and is widely cited. It was based on best available, but generally very low to low quality, evidence. It applied robust methodological processes and addressed shared priorities. The guideline transitioned from consensus based to evidence-based diagnostic criteria and enhanced accuracy of diagnosis, whilst promoting consistency of care. However, diagnosis is still delayed, the needs of those with PCOS are not being adequately met, evidence quality was low and evidence-practice gaps persist. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION The 2023 International Evidence-based Guideline update reengaged the 2018 network across professional societies and consumer organizations, with multidisciplinary experts and women with PCOS directly involved at all stages. Extensive evidence synthesis was completed. Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation-II (AGREEII)-compliant processes were followed. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework was applied across evidence quality, feasibility, acceptability, cost, implementation and ultimately recommendation strength and diversity and inclusion were considered throughout. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS This summary should be read in conjunction with the full Guideline for detailed participants and methods. Governance included a six-continent international advisory and management committee, five guideline development groups, and paediatric, consumer, and translation committees. Extensive consumer engagement and guideline experts informed the update scope and priorities. Engaged international society-nominated panels included paediatrics, endocrinology, gynaecology, primary care, reproductive endocrinology, obstetrics, psychiatry, psychology, dietetics, exercise physiology, obesity care, public health and other experts, alongside consumers, project management, evidence synthesis, statisticians and translation experts. Thirty-nine professional and consumer organizations covering 71 countries engaged in the process. Twenty meetings and five face-to-face forums over 12 months addressed 58 prioritized clinical questions involving 52 systematic and 3 narrative reviews. Evidence-based recommendations were developed and approved via consensus across five guideline panels, modified based on international feedback and peer review, independently reviewed for methodological rigour, and approved by the Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The evidence in the assessment and management of PCOS has generally improved in the past five years, but remains of low to moderate quality. The technical evidence report and analyses (∼6000 pages) underpins 77 evidence-based and 54 consensus recommendations, with 123 practice points. Key updates include: i) further refinement of individual diagnostic criteria, a simplified diagnostic algorithm and inclusion of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels as an alternative to ultrasound in adults only; ii) strengthening recognition of broader features of PCOS including metabolic risk factors, cardiovascular disease, sleep apnea, very high prevalence of psychological features, and high risk status for adverse outcomes during pregnancy; iii) emphasizing the poorly recognized, diverse burden of disease and the need for greater healthcare professional education, evidence-based patient information, improved models of care and shared decision making to improve patient experience, alongside greater research; iv) maintained emphasis on healthy lifestyle, emotional wellbeing and quality of life, with awareness and consideration of weight stigma; and v) emphasizing evidence-based medical therapy and cheaper and safer fertility management. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Overall, recommendations are strengthened and evidence is improved, but remains generally low to moderate quality. Significantly greater research is now needed in this neglected, yet common condition. Regional health system variation was considered and acknowledged, with a further process for guideline and translation resource adaptation provided. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The 2023 International Guideline for the Assessment and Management of PCOS provides clinicians and patients with clear advice on best practice, based on the best available evidence, expert multidisciplinary input and consumer preferences. Research recommendations have been generated and a comprehensive multifaceted dissemination and translation program supports the Guideline with an integrated evaluation program. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This effort was primarily funded by the Australian Government via the National Health Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (APP1171592), supported by a partnership with American Society for Reproductive Medicine, Endocrine Society, European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology, and European Society for Endocrinology. The Commonwealth Government of Australia also supported Guideline translation through the Medical Research Future Fund (MRFCRI000266). HJT and AM are funded by NHMRC fellowships. JT is funded by a Royal Australasian College of Physicians (RACP) fellowship. Guideline development group members were volunteers. Travel expenses were covered by the partnering organizations. Disclosures of interest were strictly managed according to NHMRC policy and are available with the full guideline, technical evidence report, peer review and responses (www.monash.edu/medicine/mchri/pcos). Of named authors HJT, CTT, AD, LM, LR, JBoyle, AM have no conflicts of interest to declare. JL declares grant from Ferring and Merck; consulting fees from Ferring and Titus Health Care; speaker’s fees from Ferring; unpaid consultancy for Ferring, Roche Diagnostics and Ansh Labs; and sits on advisory boards for Ferring, Roche Diagnostics, Ansh Labs, and Gedeon Richter. TP declares a grant from Roche; consulting fees from Gedeon Richter and Organon; speaker’s fees from Gedeon Richter and Exeltis; travel support from Gedeon Richter and Exeltis; unpaid consultancy for Roche Diagnostics; and sits on advisory boards for Roche Diagnostics. MC declares travels support from Merck; and sits on an advisory board for Merck. JBoivin declares grants from Merck Serono Ltd.; consulting fees from Ferring B.V; speaker’s fees from Ferring Arzneimittell GmbH; travel support from Organon; and sits on an advisory board for the Office of Health Economics. RJN has received speaker’s fees from Merck and sits on an advisory board for Ferring. AJoham has received speaker’s fees from Novo Nordisk and Boehringer Ingelheim. The guideline was peer reviewed by special interest groups across our 39 partner and collaborating organizations, was independently methodologically assessed against AGREEII criteria and was approved by all members of the guideline development groups and by the NHMRC

Comparison of machine learning and conventional logistic regression-based prediction models for gestational diabetes in an ethnically diverse population : the Monash GDM Machine learning model

Background: Early identification of pregnant women at high risk of developing gestational diabetes (GDM) is desirable as effective lifestyle interventions are available to prevent GDM and to reduce associated adverse outcomes. Personalised probability of developing GDM during pregnancy can be determined using a risk prediction model. These models extend from traditional statistics to machine learning methods; however, accuracy remains sub-optimal. Objective: We aimed to compare multiple machine learning algorithms to develop GDM risk prediction models, then to determine the optimal model for predicting GDM. Methods: A supervised machine learning predictive analysis was performed on data from routine antenatal care at a large health service network from January 2016 to June 2021. Predictor set 1 were sourced from the existing, internationally validated Monash GDM model: GDM history, body mass index, ethnicity, age, family history of diabetes, and past poor obstetric history. New models with different predictors were developed, considering statistical principles with inclusion of more robust continuous and derivative variables. A randomly selected 80% dataset was used for model development, with 20% for validation. Performance measures, including calibration and discrimination metrics, were assessed. Decision curve analysis was performed. Results: Upon internal validation, the machine learning and logistic regression model's area under the curve (AUC) ranged from 71% to 93% across the different algorithms, with the best being the CatBoost Classifier (CBC). Based on the default cut-off point of 0.32, the performance of CBC on predictor set 4 was: Accuracy (85%), Precision (90%), Recall (78%), F1-score (84%), Sensitivity (81%), Specificity (90%), positive predictive value (92%), negative predictive value (78%), and Brier Score (0.39). Conclusions: In this study, machine learning approaches achieved the best predictive performance over traditional statistical methods, increasing from 75 to 93%. The CatBoost classifier method achieved the best with the model including continuous variables

Predictors of underage pregnancy among women aged 15–19 in highly prevalent regions of Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis based on EDHS, 2016

Abstract Under age (teenage) pregnancy is a pregnancy that occurs under the age of 20 years old. Its magnitude is increasing globally. It is much higher in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. Teenage pregnancy exposed teenagers to various obstetric and perinatal complications. However, its predictors are not well investigated in highly prevalent regions of Ethiopia. Therefore, this study assessed individual and community-level predictors of teenage pregnancy using a multi-level logistic regression model. An in-depth secondary data analysis was performed using the fourth Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2016 data set. A weighted sample of 2397 teenagers was included in the final analysis. Multi co linearity and chi-square tests were checked and variables which did not fulfill the assumptions were excluded from the analysis. Four models were fitted. Variables with p value ≤ 0.2 in the bi-variable multilevel logistic regression were included in the multivariable multilevel logistic regression. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was computed. Variables with a p value of less than 0.05 in the multi-variable multilevel logistic regression were declared as statistically significant predictors. A total of 2397 weighted participants aged from 15 to 19 were involved. About 15% of teenagers were pregnant. Age [17 (AOR = 9.41: 95% CI 4.62, 19.13), 18 (AOR = 11.7: 95% CI 5.96, 23.16), 19 (AOR = 24.75: 95% CI 11.82, 51.82)], primary education (AOR = 2.09: 95% CI 1.16, 3.76), being illiterate (AOR = 1.80: 95% CI 1.19, 2.73), religion [being Muslims (AOR: 2.98:95% CI 1.80, 4.94), being Protestants (AOR = 2.02: 95% CI 1.20, 3.41)], contraceptive non use (AOR = 0.18: 95% CI 0.11, 0.31), a high proportion of family planning demand (AOR = 3.52: 95% CI 1.91, 6.49), and a high proportion of marriage (AOR = 4.30: 95% CI 2.25, 8.21) were predictors of teenage pregnancy. Age, educational status, religion, contraceptive non-use, literacy proportion of marriage and proportion of demand for family planning were the most significant predictors of teenage pregnancy. The ministry of education shall focus on universal access to education to improve female education. The government should work in collaboration with religious fathers to address reproductive and sexual issues to decrease early marriage and sexual initiation. Especial attention should be given to teenagers living in a community with a high proportion of marriage