Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly

Application of Base Force Element Method to Mesomechanics Analysis for Recycled Aggregate Concrete

The base force element method (BFEM) on potential energy principle is used to analyze recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) on mesolevel. The model of BFEM with triangular element is derived. The recycled aggregate concrete is taken as five-phase composites consisting of natural coarse aggregate, new mortar, new interfacial transition zone (ITZ), old mortar, and old ITZ on meso-level. The random aggregate model is used to simulate the mesostructure of recycled aggregate concrete. The mechanics properties of uniaxial compression and tension tests for RAC are simulated using the BFEM, respectively. The simulation results agree with the test results. This research method is a new way for investigating fracture mechanism and numerical simulation of mechanics properties for recycled aggregate concrete

A convolutional neural network based deep learning methodology for recognition of partial discharge patterns from high voltage cables

It is a great challenge to differentiate partial discharge (PD) induced by different types of insulation defects in high-voltage cables. Some types of PD signals have very similar characteristics and are specifically difficult to differentiate, even for the most experienced specialists. To overcome the challenge, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning methodology for PD pattern recognition is presented in this paper. First, PD testing for five types of artificial defects in ethylene-propylene-rubber cables is carried out in high voltage laboratory to generate signals containing PD data. Second, 3500 sets of PD transient pulses are extracted, and then 33 kinds of PD features are established. The third stage applies a CNN to the data; typical CNN architecture and the key factors which affect the CNN-based pattern recognition accuracy are described. Factors discussed include the number of the network layers, convolutional kernel size, activation function, and pooling method. This paper presents a flowchart of the CNN-based PD pattern recognition method and an evaluation with 3500 sets of PD samples. Finally, the CNN-based pattern recognition results are shown and the proposed method is compared with two more traditional analysis methods, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and back propagation neural network (BPNN). The results show that the proposed CNN method has higher pattern recognition accuracy than SVM and BPNN, and that the novel method is especially effective for PD type recognition in cases of signals of high similarity, which is applicable for industrial applications

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

A 4-Mid-Node Plane Model of Base Force Element Method on Complementary Energy Principle

Using the base forces as fundamental variables to describe the stress state and the displacement gradients that are the conjugate variables of the base forces to describe the deformation state for the two-dimensional elasticity problems, a 4-mid-node plane model of base force element method (BFEM) based on complementary energy principle is proposed. In this paper, the complementary energy of an element of the BFEM is constructed by using the base forces. The equilibrium conditions are released by the Lagrange multiplier method, and a modified complementary energy principle described by the base forces is obtained. The formulation of the 4-mid-node plane element of the BFEM is derived by assuming that the stress is uniformly distributed on each edge of the plane elements. A procedure of the BFEM on complementary energy principle is developed using MATLAB language. The numerical results of examples show that this model of the BFEM has high precision and is free from mesh sensitivity. This model shows good performances

Application of Base Force Element Method to Mesomechanics Analysis for Concrete

The base force element method (BFEM) on damage mechanics is used to analyze the compressive strength, the size effects of compressive strength, and fracture process of concrete at mesolevel. The concrete is taken as three-phase composites consisting of coarse aggregate, hardened cement mortar, and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) on mesolevel. The random aggregate model is used to simulate the mesostructure of concrete. The mechanical properties and fracture process of concrete under uniaxial compression loading are simulated using the BFEM on damage mechanics. The simulation results agree with the test results. This analysis method is the new way for investigating fracture mechanism and numerical simulation of mechanical properties for concrete

Desulfurization of low rank coal co-pyrolysis with reduced iron powder followed by dry magnetic separation

Organic sulfur in coal is usually integrated with macromolecular skeleton structure of organic components and hence difficult to remove through physical separation. Chemical leaching and biological treatments are considered as the effective methods for the removal of organic sulfur from coal, however these treatment processes require huge investment and long treatment period. In this paper, low rank coal co-pyrolysis with reduced iron powder (Fe powder) and then followed by dry magnetic separation was used to reduce the sulfur content of low rank coal. After dry magnetic separation, the organic sulfur content can be reduced from 2.00% for low rank coal before the pyrolysis to 0.33% for the coal after 700 °C co-pyrolysis with Fe powder at the coal/Fe-powder mass ratio of 4:1. However, the organic sulfur content can be only reduced to 1.28% for the coal after 700 °C pyrolysis without Fe powder. The Fe powder can promote/enhance the decomposition of organic sulfur and the released sulfur can be bonded with Fe powder to form the sulfocompounds which is separated along with the Fe powder during dry magnetic separation. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy was used to indicate the sulfur forms in the separated Fe powder (namely magnetic tailings) and showed the magnetic tailings contained more FeS and FeS compounds than the Fe powder before the pyrolysis. The magnetic tailings contained about 4.6% sulfur content at the co-pyrolysis temperature of 700 °C while the sulfur content of the Fe powder before the pyrolysis was nearly zero. A large proportion of organic sulfur was transferred to the Fe powder and then was separated along with the magnetic tailings by dry magnetic separation

Data based steering of virtual human using a velocity-space approach

International audienceIn this paper, we analyze the habits of human walk. By plot- ting and studying some real experimental motion-captured data, we es- timate the bounds of the velocity and acceleration of the pedestrian and achieve the admissible motion set. We introduce the velocity-space which means the set of the whole admissible velocities for one step in the pro- cession of human walk. In addition, a model describing the dependence of the next movement on the previous one is designed. It provides an interior constraint for pedestrian in steering model. With two examples, we show the adaptability and efficiency of the model

Application of Base Force Element Method on Complementary Energy Principle to Rock Mechanics Problems

The four-mid-node plane model of base force element method (BFEM) on complementary energy principle is used to analyze the rock mechanics problems. The method to simulate the crack propagation using the BFEM is proposed. And the calculation method of safety factor for rock mass stability was presented for the BFEM on complementary energy principle. The numerical researches show that the results of the BFEM are consistent with the results of conventional quadrilateral isoparametric element and quadrilateral reduced integration element, and the nonlinear BFEM has some advantages in dealing crack propagation and calculating safety factor of stability