Quantifying Selective Reporting and the Proteus Phenomenon for Multiple Datasets with Similar Bias

Meta-analyses play an important role in synthesizing evidence from diverse studies and datasets that address similar questions. A major obstacle for meta-analyses arises from biases in reporting. In particular, it is speculated that findings which do not achieve formal statistical significance are less likely reported than statistically significant findings. Moreover, the patterns of bias can be complex and may also depend on the timing of the research results and their relationship with previously published work. In this paper, we present an approach that is specifically designed to analyze large-scale datasets on published results. Such datasets are currently emerging in diverse research fields, particularly in molecular medicine. We use our approach to investigate a dataset on Alzheimer's disease (AD) that covers 1167 results from case-control studies on 102 genetic markers. We observe that initial studies on a genetic marker tend to be substantially more biased than subsequent replications. The chances for initial, statistically non-significant results to be published are estimated to be about 44% (95% CI, 32% to 63%) relative to statistically significant results, while statistically non-significant replications have almost the same chance to be published as statistically significant replications (84%; 95% CI, 66% to 107%). Early replications tend to be biased against initial findings, an observation previously termed Proteus phenomenon: The chances for non-significant studies going in the same direction as the initial result are estimated to be lower than the chances for non-significant studies opposing the initial result (73%; 95% CI, 55% to 96%). Such dynamic patters in bias are difficult to capture by conventional methods, where typically simple publication bias is assumed to operate. Our approach captures and corrects for complex dynamic patterns of bias, and thereby helps generating conclusions from published results that are more robust against the presence of different coexisting types of selective reporting

Association between alcohol and cardiovascular disease: Mendelian randomisation analysis based on individual participant data

Published 10 July 2014To use the rs1229984 variant in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B gene (ADH1B) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol in cardiovascular disease.Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis of 56 epidemiological studies.261 991 individuals of European descent, including 20 259 coronary heart disease cases and 10 164 stroke events. Data were available on ADH1B rs1229984 variant, alcohol phenotypes, and cardiovascular biomarkers.Odds ratio for coronary heart disease and stroke associated with the ADH1B variant in all individuals and by categories of alcohol consumption.Carriers of the A-allele of ADH1B rs1229984 consumed 17.2% fewer units of alcohol per week (95% confidence interval 15.6% to 18.9%), had a lower prevalence of binge drinking (odds ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84)), and had higher abstention (odds ratio 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)) than non-carriers. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower systolic blood pressure (-0.88 (-1.19 to -0.56) mm Hg), interleukin-6 levels (-5.2% (-7.8 to -2.4%)), waist circumference (-0.3 (-0.6 to -0.1) cm), and body mass index (-0.17 (-0.24 to -0.10) kg/m(2)). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower odds of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.90 (0.84 to 0.96)). The protective association of the ADH1B rs1229984 A-allele variant remained the same across all categories of alcohol consumption (P=0.83 for heterogeneity). Although no association of rs1229984 was identified with the combined subtypes of stroke, carriers of the A-allele had lower odds of ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 0.83 (0.72 to 0.95)).Individuals with a genetic variant associated with non-drinking and lower alcohol consumption had a more favourable cardiovascular profile and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease than those without the genetic variant. This suggests that reduction of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, is beneficial for cardiovascular health.Michael V Holmes ... Debbie A Lawlor ... et al. on behalf of The InterAct Consortiu

Population based allele frequencies of disease associated polymorphisms in the Personalized Medicine Research Project

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a lack of knowledge regarding the frequency of disease associated polymorphisms in populations and population attributable risk for many populations remains unknown. Factors that could affect the association of the allele with disease, either positively or negatively, such as race, ethnicity, and gender, may not be possible to determine without population based allele frequencies.</p> <p>Here we used a panel of 51 polymorphisms previously associated with at least one disease and determined the allele frequencies within the entire Personalized Medicine Research Project population based cohort. We compared these allele frequencies to those in dbSNP and other data sources stratified by race. Differences in allele frequencies between self reported race, region of origin, and sex were determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 19544 individuals who self reported a single racial category, 19027 or (97.4%) self reported white Caucasian, and 11205 (57.3%) individuals were female. Of the 11,208 (57%) individuals with an identifiable region of origin 8337 or (74.4%) were German.</p> <p>41 polymorphisms were significantly different between self reported race at the 0.05 level. Stratification of our Caucasian population by self reported region of origin revealed 19 polymorphisms that were significantly different (p = 0.05) between individuals of different origins. Further stratification of the population by gender revealed few significant differences in allele frequencies between the genders.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This represents one of the largest population based allele frequency studies to date. Stratification by self reported race and region of origin revealed wide differences in allele frequencies not only by race but also by region of origin within a single racial group. We report allele frequencies for our Asian/Hmong and American Indian populations; these two minority groups are not typically selected for population allele frequency detection. Population wide allele frequencies are important for the design and implementation of studies and for determining the relevance of a disease associated polymorphism for a given population.</p

Gene polymorphisms in association with emerging cardiovascular risk markers in adult women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence on the associations of emerging cardiovascular disease risk factors/markers with genes may help identify intermediate pathways of disease susceptibility in the general population. This population-based study is aimed to determine the presence of associations between a wide array of genetic variants and emerging cardiovascular risk markers among adult US women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The current analysis was performed among the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III phase 2 samples of adult women aged 17 years and older (sample size n = 3409). Fourteen candidate genes within <it>ADRB2, ADRB3, CAT, CRP, F2, F5, FGB, ITGB3, MTHFR, NOS3, PON1, PPARG, TLR4</it>, and <it>TNF </it>were examined for associations with emerging cardiovascular risk markers such as serum C-reactive protein, homocysteine, uric acid, and plasma fibrinogen. Linear regression models were performed using SAS-callable SUDAAN 9.0. The covariates included age, race/ethnicity, education, menopausal status, female hormone use, aspirin use, and lifestyle factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In covariate-adjusted models, serum C-reactive protein concentrations were significantly (P value controlling for false-discovery rate ≤ 0.05) associated with polymorphisms in <it>CRP </it>(rs3093058, rs1205)<it>, MTHFR </it>(rs1801131)<it>, and ADRB3 </it>(rs4994). Serum homocysteine levels were significantly associated with <it>MTHFR </it>(rs1801133).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The significant associations between certain gene variants with concentration variations in serum C-reactive protein and homocysteine among adult women need to be confirmed in further genetic association studies.</p

Reporting of Human Genome Epidemiology (HuGE) association studies: An empirical assessment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several thousand human genome epidemiology association studies are published every year investigating the relationship between common genetic variants and diverse phenotypes. Transparent reporting of study methods and results allows readers to better assess the validity of study findings. Here, we document reporting practices of human genome epidemiology studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Articles were randomly selected from a continuously updated database of human genome epidemiology association studies to be representative of genetic epidemiology literature. The main analysis evaluated 315 articles published in 2001–2003. For a comparative update, we evaluated 28 more recent articles published in 2006, focusing on issues that were poorly reported in 2001–2003.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During both time periods, most studies comprised relatively small study populations and examined one or more genetic variants within a single gene. Articles were inconsistent in reporting the data needed to assess selection bias and the methods used to minimize misclassification (of the genotype, outcome, and environmental exposure) or to identify population stratification. Statistical power, the use of unrelated study participants, and the use of replicate samples were reported more often in articles published during 2006 when compared with the earlier sample.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that many items needed to assess error and bias in human genome epidemiology association studies are not consistently reported. Although some improvements were seen over time, reporting guidelines and online supplemental material may help enhance the transparency of this literature.</p

Genetic variants associated with fasting blood lipids in the U.S. population: Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The identification of genetic variants related to blood lipid levels within a large, population-based and nationally representative study might lead to a better understanding of the genetic contribution to serum lipid levels in the major race/ethnic groups in the U.S. population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from the second phase (1991-1994) of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), we examined associations between 22 polymorphisms in 13 candidate genes and four serum lipids: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides (TG). Univariate and multivariable linear regression and within-gene haplotype trend regression were used to test for genetic associations assuming an additive mode of inheritance for each of the three major race/ethnic groups in the United States (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Mexican American).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Variants within <it>APOE </it>(rs7412, rs429358), <it>PON1 </it>(rs854560), <it>ITGB3 </it>(rs5918), and <it>NOS3 </it>(rs2070744) were found to be associated with one or more blood lipids in at least one race/ethnic group in crude and adjusted analyses. In non-Hispanic whites, no individual polymorphisms were associated with any lipid trait. However, the <it>PON1 </it>A-G haplotype was significantly associated with LDL-C and TC. In non-Hispanic blacks, <it>APOE </it>variant rs7412 and haplotype T-T were strongly associated with LDL-C and TC; whereas, rs5918 of <it>ITGB3 </it>was significantly associated with TG. Several variants and haplotypes of three genes were significantly related to lipids in Mexican Americans: <it>PON1 </it>in relation to HDL-C; <it>APOE </it>and <it>NOS3 </it>in relation to LDL-C; and <it>APOE </it>in relation to TC.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We report the significant associations of blood lipids with variants and haplotypes in <it>APOE</it>, <it>ITGB3, NOS3</it>, and <it>PON1 </it>in the three main race/ethnic groups in the U.S. population using a large, nationally representative and population-based sample survey. Results from our study contribute to a growing body of literature identifying key determinants of plasma lipoprotein concentrations and could provide insight into the biological mechanisms underlying serum lipid and cholesterol concentrations.</p

Inflammation gene variants and susceptibility to albuminuria in the U.S. population: analysis in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), 1991-1994

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Albuminuria, a common marker of kidney damage, serves as an important predictive factor for the progression of kidney disease and for the development of cardiovascular disease. While the underlying etiology is unclear, chronic, low-grade inflammation is a suspected key factor. Genetic variants within genes involved in inflammatory processes may, therefore, contribute to the development of albuminuria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated 60 polymorphisms within 27 inflammatory response genes in participants from the second phase (1991-1994) of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a population-based and nationally representative survey of the United States. Albuminuria was evaluated as logarithm-transformed albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), as ACR ≥ 30 mg/g, and as ACR above sex-specific thresholds. Multivariable linear regression and haplotype trend analyses were conducted to test for genetic associations in 5321 participants aged 20 years or older. Differences in allele and genotype distributions among non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans were tested in additive and codominant genetic models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Variants in several genes were found to be marginally associated (uncorrected P value < 0.05) with log(ACR) in at least one race/ethnic group, but none remained significant in crude or fully-adjusted models when correcting for the false-discovery rate (FDR). In analyses of sex-specific albuminuria, <it>IL1B </it>(rs1143623) among Mexican Americans remained significantly associated with increased odds, while <it>IL1B </it>(rs1143623), <it>CRP </it>(rs1800947) and <it>NOS3 </it>(rs2070744) were significantly associated with ACR ≥ 30 mg/g in this population (additive models, FDR-P < 0.05). In contrast, no variants were found to be associated with albuminuria among non-Hispanic blacks after adjustment for multiple testing. The only variant among non-Hispanic whites significantly associated with any outcome was <it>TNF </it>rs1800750, which failed the test for Hardy-Weinberg proportions in this population. Haplotypes within <it>MBL2</it>, <it>CRP</it>, <it>ADRB2, IL4R</it>, <it>NOS3</it>, and <it>VDR </it>were significantly associated (FDR-P < 0.05) with log(ACR) or albuminuria in at least one race/ethnic group.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest a small role for genetic variation within inflammation-related genes to the susceptibility to albuminuria. Additional studies are needed to further assess whether genetic variation in these, and untested, inflammation genes alter the susceptibility to kidney damage.</p