Uncertainties in earthquake risk assessment for disaster planning

Toplumsal yaşamın sürdürülebilirliğini sağlamak, can ve mal kaybına neden olan afetlere karşı direnci artırmak, toplulukları afete hazırlık konusunda bilinçlendirmek ve tüm bileşenleri hazırlıklı bulundurmakla mümkün olabilir. Afet planlaması olası bir afet sonrasında toplumun olumsuz yönde etkilenmesini azaltmak ve kaynakların doğru kullanım hedeflerini gözeten bir yaklaşımdır. Ülkemizdeki kayıplarda da önemli bir yere sahip depremin risk değerlendirmelerinde deterministik ve olasılıksal yöntemler olmak üzere iki temel yaklaşım bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada deprem risk değerlendirmesine, yer hareketi, yapı envanteri ve yöntem bileşenlerinde mevcut olan belirsizliklerin etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, Marmara bölgesinin önemli fay hatlarına yakın ve Kocaeli Depremi (1999) şiddetinin en fazla hissedildiği yerleşimlerden biri olan Gebze (Kocaeli) ilçesi seçilmiş, deprem senaryolarıyla risk yapısı değerlendirilmiştir. Senaryo depremleri uygulanırken depremin kaynağı, depremin büyüklüğü ve zemin parametrelerinin riske etkisi incelenmiştir. Risk değerlendirmeleri sonuçlarına göre bina hasarı, can kaybı ve barınak ihtiyacı oranları hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca mahalle bazında beklenen şiddet, hasar seviyeleri zemin etkisinin dikkate alındığı ve alınmadığı durumlar için harita üzerinde ayrı ayrı gösterilmiştir. Bu değerlendirmeler ülkemiz için hazırlanmış sismik tehlike bilgisi, yerel zemin bilgisi ve bina envanterindeki unsurları içeren veriler ile CBS verilerini birleştirebilen ön hasar tespit yazılımı, AFAD-RED kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, deprem risk planlamasında yer hareketi tahmin belirsizliklerinin kayıp tahmini sonuçları üzerindeki önemi gösterilmiştir.To obtain the sustainability of social life and to increase resistance to disaster that cause loss of life and properties; it is possible to raise awareness in the community about disaster preparedness and engross to take all the components. Disaster planning is an approach that targets the correct use of resources to decrease negative impacts in the community after the disaster. In Turkey, earthquake losses have an important role in disaster planning. There are two basic approaches for earthquake loss estimation used in disaster planning namely deterministic and probabilistic. Uncertainties of the seismic risk assessment parameters can be generated from ground motion computations, structural inventories and risk methodologies. In this study, uncertainties in the ground motion estimations are investigated. Gebze district that located close to major fault lines at Marmara region, and had significant damage during Kocaeli earthquake (1990), is selected as a study case for the risk assessment scenarios. The uncertainties parameters in ground motion computation that have major effect on the risk assessment are considered as earthquake source, earthquake magnitude and soil parameters. As a result, building damage ratios, loss of life and the need for shelter are computed. The soil amplification effects on the seismic intensity level and damage ratios are emphasized. The earthquake hazard estimation and risk assessment computation were performed utilizing geographic information system based software AFAD-RED. The software combines the scenario based seismic hazard procedure with the existing building inventories and soil data for the risk estimations. As a result, it is concluded that, uncertainties in ground motion computations have important effect on the seismic risk assessment and should be considered in disaster planning process

Kano modelinin KFD’ye entegrasyonu yöntemiyle TOKİ konutlarında son kullanıcı memnuniyetinin değerlendirilmesi

06.03.2018 tarihli ve 30352 sayılı Resmi Gazetede yayımlanan “Yükseköğretim Kanunu İle Bazı Kanun Ve Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Değişiklik Yapılması Hakkında Kanun” ile 18.06.2018 tarihli “Lisansüstü Tezlerin Elektronik Ortamda Toplanması, Düzenlenmesi ve Erişime Açılmasına İlişkin Yönerge” gereğince tam metin erişime açılmıştır.Bu çalışma, TOKİ'nin dar ve orta gelir grubuna yönelik inşa ettiği toplu konut projelerinde son kullanıcı (müşteri) memnuniyetini belirlemek için, Kano Modelinin KFD'ye (Kalite Fonksiyon Dağılımı) entegrasyonu yöntemi kullanılarak son kullanıcı ihtiyaçlarının önceliklendirilmesi ve gelecekte inşa edilecek projelerde son kullanıcı memnuniyetini arttırmak için hazırlanmıştır. Çalışmanın içeriğinde veri toplama yöntemi olarak anket yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Örnekleme yöntemi olarak da basit tesadüfi örnekleme yöntemi seçilmiştir. Verilerin toplanması KFD ve Kano anketi yardımıyla elde edilmiştir. Anketlerden toplanan ham veriler uygulanan metodolojiye uygun olarak Excel ortamında hazırlan kano modeli değerlendirme tablosu, mevcut müşteri memnuniyeti değerlendirme tablosuna işlenmiş ve çıkan sonuçlar Kano Modeli entegre edilmiş KFD'nin Kalite Evinin Planlama Matrisi tablosuna aktarılmış ve düzeltilmiş önem dereceleri ve yüzdelik önem oranları tespit edilmiştir. En son olarak da müşteri ihtiyaçları tasarım, malzeme ve işçilik adı altında sınıflandırılarak son kullanıcı ihtiyaçları öncelik sıraları belirlenmiştir.This study aims to prioritize end-user (customer) needs by using the integration of Kano Model to QFD (Quality Functional Deployment) method in order to determine end-user satisfaction in mass housing projects constructed by TOKI for low and middle income level and to increase end-user satisfaction in future projects It was prepared. In the content of the study, questionnaire method was used as data collection method. Simple random sampling method was chosen as the sampling method. The data were collected with the help of QFD and Kano questionnaire. The raw data collected from the questionnaires were prepared in Excel environment in accordance with the methodology applied, the kano model evaluation table was processed to the existing customer satisfaction evaluation table and the results were transferred to the Planning Matrix of the Quality House of the QFD with the integrated Kano Model, and the corrected significance levels and percentages were determined. Finally, customer needs are classified under the name of design, material and workmanship, and end-user needs are prioritized

A tool for evaluating the early-stage design of corvettes

Thesis (S.M. in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 140).In naval architecture terminology, the term "corvette" refers to a class of ships that are shorter than frigates and longer than patrol boats. Corvettes have always been the centerpiece of the navies whose mission requirements are based on littoral combat such as Anti-Submarine Warfare, Mine Warfare, and Anti-Surface Warfare. Numerous studies have focused on frigates and patrol boats in the history of naval architecture. However, few studies applied to corvettes. There is a trend in the ship building industry to design new ships as corvettes [1] since they can operate both independently and in joint missions. However, it is difficult for a naval architect to manage all the information flow throughout the corvette design process. When the displacement of the ship gets larger, this design process also becomes more complicated. The management of this process becomes more efficient by using computer programs. However, programs for use in the design of corvettes do not exist. This thesis explains how early-stage estimations are made for corvettes. In order to cover this future trend in marine transportation, a MatlabTM model for the estimation of the main characteristics of corvettes in the early-stage design is also developed. This MatlabTM model is based on a statistical analysis of existing ships that are classified as corvettes. The database used in this study is created by using the public information that is available to the author. For this study, design lanes are created, trend lines are drawn and relationships between the desired values are graphed. For the validation of the code, the Kral J Petar Kresimir, Eilat (SAAR 5) and Robinson are used as reference ships in this study. The customer requirements of these ships are entered into the model. The results show that the data of these ships fall within the design lanes.by Mustafa Yasin Kara.S.M.in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineerin

On a solvable system of difference equations of sixth-order

In this paper, we study the following two-dimesional system of difference equations (Formula presented.), (Formula presented.), n ? N0; where the parameters a,b,c,d and the initial values x-i,y-i, i ? {1,2,3,4,5,6}, are real numbers. We show that some subclasses of nonlinear two-dimensional system of difference equations are solvable in closed form. We also describe the forbidden set of solutions of the system of difference equations. Some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the theoretical results. © 2023 Miskolc University PressAuthors are thankful to the editor and reviewers for their constructive review

THE EFFECT OF PEER EDUCATION ON SLEEP HYGIENE ON SLEEP QUALITY AND PSYCHOLOGICAL RESILIENCE IN UNIVERSITY STUDENTS LIVING IN DORMITORIES

This study was conducted to examine the effect of peer education on sleep hygiene sleep quality and psychological resilience in university students living in dormitories. In the study, a quasi-experimental method with a pretest-posttest control group was used. 240 university students staying at Akyazı Credit and Dormitories Institution in Akyazı district of Sakarya province participated in the study. Half of the students (n=120) formed the intervention group and the other half (n=120) formed the control group. Before the study, 20 students were given sleep hygiene training by the research team. The training group provided peer education to the intervention group on sleep hygiene. No intervention was made in the control group. Student diagnostic form, Sleep Hygiene Index, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and Brief Psychological Resilience Scale were used as data collection tools. There was no statistically significant difference between the Sleep Hygiene Index and Brief Psychological Resilience Scale score averages of the intervention and control group students included in the study at the beginning and the last interview (p>0.05). However, it was determined that there was an improvement in the sleep hygiene and psychological resilience levels of the students in the intervention group (p0.05). In addition, it was determined that the intervention group had a significant improvement in subjective sleep quality and sleep latency, which are sub-dimensions of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (

Direct synthesis of tetrazine functionalities on polymer backbones

Tetrazine mediated inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder Reaction (IEDDA) is an important modification technique due to its high selectivity and super-fast kinetics. Incorporation of tetrazine moieties on polymer chains requires multistep synthetic pathways and a post-polymerization step leading to functional polymeric materials. Such approaches involve separate syntheses of polymer and the molecule which will be employed in modification. Herein, we introduce a straightforward synthetic approach for direct synthesis of tetrazine groups on polymers as side chains. As model systems, tetrazine functional poly(N-isopropylacrylamide)-and poly(ethylene glycol)-based polymers from corresponding precursor polymers with nitrile moieties as pendant groups are prepared and IEDDA Click Reaction is achieved with trans-cyclooctene derivatives. The click reaction is monitored by both NMR and UV-vis spectroscopies. (c) 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Polym. Sci., Part A: Polym. Chem. 2019, 57, 673-680Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Aratirma Kurumu; Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) [214M175]This work has been financially supported by Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Aratirma Kurumu and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK, Project # 214M175)

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning