Spatial Price Transmission in Kazakh Wheat Markets

Reliable marketing opportunities in both interregional and international trade are an important precondition for further development of the agricultural sector. In this study we assess interregional integration of Kazakh wheat markets. We apply asymmetric threshold error correction models to assess the co-movement of elevator prices at three grain-trading spots in the northern and central parts of the country. Results suggest that markets of two northern grain-trading spots (Petropavlovsk and Kokshetau) are closely connected with each other while their connection with Karaganda in central Kazakhstan is much weaker. Here, levelling out price gaps through arbitrage trade only occurs after a threshold of considerable extent has been surpassed.Kazakhstan, price transmission, threshold VECM, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, C22, Q13,

RELAXING CONTROL OVER THE CROPPING STRUCTURE: THE NEXT STEP FOR LAND REFORM IN UZBEKISTAN

Omnipresent control of Uzbekistan government in agriculture undermines land tenure security among the farmers and as result leads to low productivity and low incentives for investment into the land. In its turn low productivity in cotton farms worries the Uzbek policy makers on whether giving more freedom to 'private' farms will adversely alter vital production of cotton. In this study we hypothesized on opportunity of enhancing land tenure security in today's Uzbekistan without altering government's demand for cotton. Specifically we showed that relaxing requirement over the land occupation under cotton while leaving only government demand for output will result in freeing significant percentage of land area and consequently enhancing land [property] rights. Indeed, our estimates suggest that depending on the soil quality and entrepreneurship skills of farmer, from 3% to 6% of farm lands can be potentially taken out off the cotton production and used for producing alternative crops.Uzbekistan, cropping structure, land tenure security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Efficacy and adoption of strategies for avian flu control in developing countries

In this paper, we present the results of a two-stage expert elicitation (Delphi) study conducted to provide input to contingent valuation (CV) studies. These CV studies are designed to estimate the benefits of various public and private strategies for the control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) across the study countries of Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The results of these CV studies are expected to feed into the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyzes, which will be conducted to identify the effective HPAI control strategies in each study country. The information gathered through the Delphi study included (1) definitions of the small-scale producers (noncommercial/semicommercial and commercial) across the study countries, (2) estimations of the efficacy of various private and public control strategies in HPAI control, and (3) estimates of the proportion of poultry producers who are expected to adopt these control strategies under different scenarios. In this Delphi study, we collected data from 23 experts and analyzed the data by using statistical analysis methods. The results reveal that small-scale flocks are significantly larger in Indonesia, compared to the four African countries. The efficacy levels of both private and public HPAI control strategies investigated are significantly higher for commercial producers than for their noncommercial/semicommercial counterparts. Across private strategies and study countries, regular monitoring is thought to have the highest efficacy for those in the noncommercial/semicommercial sector, whereas regular disinfection and containment in hard material (as a combined strategy) was found to be the most effective strategy in minimizing risk in the commercial sector. Across public strategies and study countries, experts see surveillance by veterinary services as the most effective public sector HPAI control strategy in both the noncommercial/semicommercial and commercial sectors. Finally, according to the experts, small-scale poultry producers’ likelihood of adoption is low overall, although adoption rates are higher for commercial producers than for noncommercial/semicommercial producers.Adoption, commercial sector, Delphi study, disease risk introduction and spread, efficacy, expert elicitation, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, HPAI, noncommercial sector, private disease risk minimization strategies, public disease risk minimization strategies, semicommercial sector, small-scale poultry producers,

Assessing the livelihood impacts of a livestock disease outbreak: An alternative approach

Because of the substantive role played by livestock in the income and asset portfolios of the poor, livestock diseases can be an important threat to livelihoods. Yet for a variety of reasons, there are few applicable methods and consequently scant literature to assess the impacts of livestock diseases on livelihood outcomes. Existing literature comprises small-area studies and computable models with wider geographic focus, both of which have limitations in this specific context. We propose an alternative approach for estimating the impacts of livestock diseases on livelihoods. This proposed approach is an adaptation of a quasi-experimental impact evaluation method, namely propensity score matching, which uses features available in large-scale datasets with wide geographic coverage to create counterfactual scenarios that could mimic outcomes of a disease outbreak. By its construction the method is well suited for ex ante impact assessment. As an illustration we apply the method to the hypothetical case of an avian flu outbreak in Kenya.Impact assessment, Livelihoods, livestock disease, Propensity score matching,

Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa

In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households’ livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households’ various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.Agricultural growth and technologies, demand shock, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), Livelihoods, probit model, Propensity score matching, supply shock, zero-inflated negative binomial model,

Investigating the Role of Poultry in Livelihoods and the Impact of HPAI on Livelihoods Outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria

In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in the livelihoods portfolios of households and the impact of supply and demand shocks that may be caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on various livelihoods outcomes of households in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries in terms of disease status, role of poultry sector and means of disease spread. By using nationally representative household level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit model and zero inflated negative binomial model) we profile the household, farm and regional characteristics of those households who are most likely to keep poultry, and those who are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production, i.e., keep larger household flocks. We estimate the impact of the disease outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihood outcomes by using matching methods (i.e., propensity score matching). The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry producing households and the livelihood impacts of HPAI induced demand and supply shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted and hence efficient and effective HPAI control and mitigation policies.Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), demand shock, supply shock, livelihoods, probit model, zero inflated negative binomial model, propensity score matching, Livestock Production/Industries,

Knowledge and practices of Indonesian rural communities and poultry farmers toward avian flu

Understanding people’s knowledge, attitudes, practices, and perceptions (KAPP) about and toward risk is an important step in determining which cost-effective measure to adopt. It also is important in assessing poor people’s willingness to adopt cost-effective prevention and control measures for reducing the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Although studies in several countries indicate some level of awareness about HPAI, practices and attitudes for preventing and controlling HPAI disease spread and outbreaks have not changed (Fielding et al. 2005, Maton et al. 2007, DiGiuseppe et al. 2008, Leslie et al. 2008).Non-PRIFPRI2MTI

Spatial Price Transmission in Kazakh Wheat Markets

Reliable marketing opportunities in both interregional and international trade are an important precondition for further development of the agricultural sector. In this study we assess interregional integration of Kazakh wheat markets. We apply asymmetric threshold error correction models to assess the co-movement of elevator prices at three grain-trading spots in the northern and central parts of the country. Results suggest that markets of two northern grain-trading spots (Petropavlovsk and Kokshetau) are closely connected with each other while their connection with Karaganda in central Kazakhstan is much weaker. Here, levelling out price gaps through arbitrage trade only occurs after a threshold of considerable extent has been surpassed

INTERREGIONAL INTEGRATION OF WHEAT MARKETS IN KAZAKHSTAN

Reliable marketing opportunities in both interregional and international trade along with relatively low transportation [and transaction] costs are essential to profitability of wheat production. In this study we have investigated one aspect of the quality of marketing and trade opportunities in the Kazakh wheat sector, that is the extent and nature of integration among regional wheat markets. We applied threshold cointegration technique to assess the co-movement between time series of elevator prices at three grain-trading (and producing) spots in the northern and central parts of the country. Results suggest that markets of two northern grain trading spots (Petropavlovsk and Kokshetau) are closely connected with each other while their connection with Karaganda in central Kazakhstan is much weaker. Here, levelling out of price gaps through arbitrage trade only occurs after a threshold of considerable extent has been surpassed. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Eine wichtige Voraussetzung für die Wirtschaftlichkeit der Getreideproduktion sind verlässliche Vermarktungswege, die interregionalen und internationalen Handel zu relativ geringen Transport- und Transaktionskosten zulassen. Die Studie behandelt die Integration regionaler Weizenmärkte miteinander und beleuchtet damit, wie reibungslos Getreidehandel zwischen diesen Regionen möglich ist. Mit Hilfe von Verfahren der threshold cointegration analysis werden Zusammenhänge in den Preisentwicklungen zwischen drei wichtigen Handelsplätzen in Nordund Zentralkasachstan untersucht. Die Märkte der beiden nördlichen Marktorte Petropavlovsk und Kokshetau stehen in enger Verbindung zueinander, während sie wesentlich unabhängiger von den Marktentwickungen im zentralkasachischen Karaganda sind. Ein Ausgleich von Preisunterschieden zwischen den nördlichen Märkten und Karaganda findet erst statt, wenn diese Unterschiede einen beträchtlichen Schwellenwert (threshold) übersteigen

RELAXING CONTROL OVER THE CROPPING STRUCTURE: THE NEXT STEP FOR LAND REFORM IN UZBEKISTAN

Omnipresent control of Uzbekistan government in agriculture undermines land tenure security among the farmers and as result leads to low productivity and low incentives for investment into the land. In its turn low productivity in cotton farms worries the Uzbek policy makers on whether giving more freedom to 'private' farms will adversely alter vital production of cotton. In this study we hypothesized on opportunity of enhancing land tenure security in today's Uzbekistan without altering government's demand for cotton. Specifically we showed that relaxing requirement over the land occupation under cotton while leaving only government demand for output will result in freeing significant percentage of land area and consequently enhancing land [property] rights. Indeed, our estimates suggest that depending on the soil quality and entrepreneurship skills of farmer, from 3% to 6% of farm lands can be potentially taken out off the cotton production and used for producing alternative crops