Persistence and clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of Ebola virus disease survivors: a longitudinal analysis and modelling study

Summary: Background: By January, 2016, all known transmission chains of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in west Africa had been stopped. However, there is concern about persistence of Ebola virus in the reproductive tract of men who have survived EVD. We aimed to use biostatistical modelling to describe the dynamics of Ebola virus RNA load in seminal fluid, including clearance parameters. Methods: In this longitudinal study, we recruited men who had been discharged from three Ebola treatment units in Guinea between January and July, 2015. Participants provided samples of seminal fluid at follow-up every 3–6 weeks, which we tested for Ebola virus RNA using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Representative specimens from eight participants were then inoculated into immunodeficient mice to test for infectivity. We used a linear mixed-effect model to analyse the dynamics of virus persistence in seminal fluid over time. Findings: We enrolled 26 participants and tested 130 seminal fluid specimens; median follow up was 197 days (IQR 187–209 days) after enrolment, which corresponded to 255 days (228–287) after disease onset. Ebola virus RNA was detected in 86 semen specimens from 19 (73%) participants. Median duration of Ebola virus RNA detection was 158 days after onset (73–181; maximum 407 days at end of follow-up). Mathematical modelling of the quantitative time-series data showed a mean clearance rate of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of −0·58 log units per month, although the clearance kinetic varied greatly between participants. Using our biostatistical model, we predict that 50% and 90% of male survivors clear Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid at 115 days (90% prediction interval 72–160) and 294 days (212–399) after disease onset, respectively. We also predicted that the number of men positive for Ebola virus RNA in affected countries would decrease from about 50 in January 2016, to fewer than 1 person by July, 2016. Infectious virus was detected in 15 of 26 (58%) specimens tested in mice. Interpretation: Time to clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid varies greatly between individuals and could be more than 13 months. Our predictions will assist in decision-making about surveillance and preventive measures in EVD outbreaks. Funding: This study was funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM), German Research Foundation (DFG), and Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking

Effect of isoniazid preventive therapy on risk of death in west African, HIV-infected adults with high CD4 cell counts: long-term follow-up of the Temprano ANRS 12136 trial

Background: Temprano ANRS 12136 was a factorial 2 × 2 trial that assessed the benefits of early antiretroviral therapy (ART; ie, in patients who had not reached the CD4 cell count threshold used to recommend starting ART, as per the WHO guidelines that were the standard during the study period) and 6-month isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) in HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire. Early ART and IPT were shown to independently reduce the risk of severe morbidity at 30 months. Here, we present the efficacy of IPT in reducing mortality from the long-term follow-up of Temprano. Methods: For Temprano, participants were randomly assigned to four groups (deferred ART, deferred ART plus IPT, early ART, or early ART plus IPT). Participants who completed the trial follow-up were invited to participate in a post-trial phase. The primary post-trial phase endpoint was death, as analysed by the intention-to-treat principle. We used Cox proportional models to compare all-cause mortality between the IPT and no IPT strategies from inclusion in Temprano to the end of the follow-up period. Findings: Between March 18, 2008, and Jan 5, 2015, 2056 patients (mean baseline CD4 count 477 cells per μL) were followed up for 9404 patient-years (Temprano 4757; post-trial phase 4647). The median follow-up time was 4·9 years (IQR 3·3–5·8). 86 deaths were recorded (Temprano 47 deaths; post-trial phase 39 deaths), of which 34 were in patients randomly assigned IPT (6-year probability 4·1%, 95% CI 2·9–5·7) and 52 were in those randomly assigned no IPT (6·9%, 5·1–9·2). The hazard ratio of death in patients who had IPT compared with those who did not have IPT was 0·63 (95% CI, 0·41 to 0·97) after adjusting for the ART strategy (early vs deferred), and 0·61 (0·39–0·94) after adjustment for the ART strategy, baseline CD4 cell count, and other key characteristics. There was no evidence for statistical interaction between IPT and ART (pinteraction=0·77) or between IPT and time (pinteraction=0·94) on mortality. Interpretation: In Côte d'Ivoire, where the incidence of tuberculosis was last reported as 159 per 100 000 people, 6 months of IPT has a durable protective effect in reducing mortality in HIV-infected people, even in people with high CD4 cell counts and who have started ART. Funding: National Research Agency on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis (ANRS)