Using GIS methods in spatial modelling of climatic water balance index

The main aim of this study is to find the best spatialization method to describe spatial differentiation of climatic water balance (CWB) in Poland. Monthly mean values of air temperature and precipitation totals from 60 synoptic stations as well as monthly totals of solar radiation (23 measuring points) were taken into consideration. Source material covered period 1985-2006. Regarding the prior research as well as data availability the potential evapotranspiration data was calculated by Turc formula. CWB modelling was conducted with two methods simultaneously: simple and multiple linear regression (with latitude, altitude and distance from the coast line as variables), and map algebra. Validation proved the map algebra to be the better of the two spatialization methods. Nevertheless the obtained results proved also that except for the method local factors are of the great importance in CWB modelling especially in the mountains and at the coast. To optimize the method it is necessary to reduce the research scale using more insitu data that would enable inclusion of more local variables such as land form and land cover into the analyses

Temporal variability of summer temperature extremes in Poland

The aim of the study is to estimate the trend in summer maximum air temperature extremes in Poland during the period 1951–2015 by demonstrating the changes in the magnitude of temperature anomalies, temperature “surplus”, as well as the area influenced by extreme temperature occurrence. To express the latter two variables, daily maps of maximum air temperature were created to calculate the total area affected by temperature extremes. To combine the effect of spatial extent and temperature anomaly, an Extremity Index was introduced. The results confirmed an increase in summer maximum air temperature of about 0.4 °C per 10 years, evidenced also in the increase of summer extremeness. Positive anomalies have dominated since the 1990s, with the largest anomalies occurring during the summers of 1992, 1994, 2010 and finally 2015, the most exceptional summer during the analyzed period

Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe

An observed increase in air temperature can lead to significant changes in the phenology of plants and, consequently, changes in agricultural production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial differentiation of thermal resources in Poland and their variability during a period of changing thermal conditions in Europe. Since the variability of thermal conditions is of paramount importance for perennial crops, the study focused on apple, plum, and cherry orchard regions in Poland. The analysis was conducted for the period of 1951–2010 using air temperature daily data. Thermal resources have been defined using the growing degree days (GDD) index calculated independently for the whole year and during in frost-free season for three air temperature thresholds: 0, 5, and 10 °C, which determine the non-winter period, growing season, and the period of full plant growth, respectively. In addition, due to the high significance for perennials in particular, the incidence and intensity of frost during flowering were calculated. In this study, a detailed analysis of the spatial differentiation of thermal resources was first performed, followed by an evaluation of long-term variability and associated change patterns. The obtained results confirmed an increase in thermal resources in Poland as a consequence of the lengthening of the growing season. However, the frequency and intensity of spring frost, especially during flowering or even during ripening of plants, remain a threat to harvests in both the eastern and western parts of the country

Meteorological hazards - visualization system for national protection against extreme hazards for Poland

Meteorological hazard maps are one of the components of the IT System for Country Protection against extreme hazards (ISOK) created by a consortium of Polish institutions, including the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. These maps present meteorological phenomena such as: temperature extremes, heavy and flood-producing rainfall, strong winds, intensive snowfall, fogs, glaze, rime and thunderstorms with hail. These elements were chosen arbitrarily due to recorded or estimated losses. The main aim of the maps is to present visualization methods of hazard forecast with consideration of climatological (historical) background. To identify areas especially exposed to the above meteorological hazards, extensive climatological analyses were performed, based on long-term daily data (mainly the 1951-2010 period). The main component of the warning system is a set of prediction maps created automatically on the basis of scientific algorithms that provide the probability of the occurrence of particular phenomena, or the conditions favourable for them. The algorithms’ structure, based on information about physical processes in the atmosphere, as well as detailed climatological analysis, enables the reclassification of the forecast values – predicted by the ALADIN mesoscale atmospheric model – into four groups of any hazard at the gridded points. Finally, the information will be interpolated and will result in the production of maps of spatial distribution presenting the objective probability of a particular hazard, i.e. its actual risk. Results of historical analysis are to be presented for the public by a number of climatological maps, and accompanied by additional fact sheets to provide society with an actual view of the spatial distribution of the distinguished weather phenomena, and the interrelated risks

Spatial differentiation and drought intensity in the Upper Silesia Region, Poland

Drought estimation and monitoring seems to be crucial both in agricultural activities as well as in water management. The aim of the study is to estimate the drought vulnerability of the Upper Silesia Region using selected drought indices. The evaluation was based on daily meteorological data from the period 1981-2010 and conducted for particular administrative units. On the basis of 30-years of observations the spatial distribution of drought phenomena as well as its intensity and duration was described. The communes particularly exposed to meteorological drought were indicated, also the regions where the phenomena are rare or even not observed. As the analyses were conducted using several drought indices, their applicability was evaluated for the region under consideration. The results showed that for drought monitoring over the region meteorological drought indices should be taken into account at the first stage but it is also necessary to diagnose the environmental conditions (especially geological formation and the relief). Despite high precipitation totals recorded the areas with very complex relief and unfavourable geological formation are prone to water shortage resulting the intensive run-off