The global distribution and burden of dengue

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes1. For some patients dengue is a life-threatening illness2. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread3. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection4 and its public health burden are poorly known2,5. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanisation. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95 percent credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of clinical or sub-clinical severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization2. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods and in their economic evaluation. [285

VectorNet Data Series 3: Culicoides Abundance Distribution Models for Europe and Surrounding Regions

This is the third in a planned series of data papers presenting modelled vector distributions produced during the ECDC and EFSA funded VectorNet project. The data package presented here includes those Culicoides vectors species first modelled in 2015 as part of the VectorNet gap analysis work namely C. imicola, C. obsoletus, C. scoticus, C. dewulfi, C. chiopterus, C. pulicaris, C. lupicaris, C. punctatus, and C. newsteadi. The known distributions of these species within the Project area (Europe, the Mediterranean Basin, North Africa, and Eurasia) are currently incomplete to a greater or lesser degree. The models are designed to fill the gaps with predicted distributions, to provide a) first indication of vector species distributions across the project geographical extent, and b) assistance in targeting surveys to collect distribution data for those areas with no field validated information. The models are based on input data from light trap surveillance of adult Culicoides across continental Europe and surrounding regions (71.8°N –33.5°S, – 11.2°W – 62°E), concentrated in Western countries, supplemented by transect samples in eastern and northern Europe. Data from central EU are relatively sparse.Peer reviewe

The Baltics after "Dark": way to European Union

Focusing on the post-communist developments in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the research prevails why the transition was successful in the Baltic States? Analyzing "the Baltic way" to the European Union, the paper discusses the certain aspects of economic, political and social transition. Cultural trauma of social change will also be concerned. Conceptual part of the work focuses on the theory of modernization which is discussed in the civilizational context. It is assumed that modernization is rather multi-dimensional than universal, homogeneous process. The Baltic modernization shows the patterns of original western European type of modernization with clearly defined end-up goal: political and cultural "return to the West". Empirical part of the research focuses on the economic, political and social transformation processes in the Baltic States. The main discussions on Economic transition heated around the question: how to build capitalism? What was possible and desirable? What policy should have been chosen? Baltic States went through the radical economic reform called "shock therapy". The essence of "this program is discussed in contradiction with "gradualism'" - an alternative strategy of economic transition. Political transition encompasses the state-building, nation-building and society..

Composition and seasonality of Culicoides in three host environments in Rabat region (Morocco)

We reconstruct the eruptive chronology of the Yucamane–Calientes compound volcano in southern Peru based on extensive fieldwork and a large dataset of geochronological (K-Ar, 40Ar/39Ar, U-Pb, and 14C) and geochemical (major and trace element) analyses. This compound volcano is composed of two edifices that have experienced discontinuous volcanic activity from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. The Calientes volcano has been constructed in four successive stages: Calientes I is composed of andesitic lava flows dated at ~500 ka. Subsequently, the Callazas ignimbrite (Calientes II stage) was emplaced ~160–190 ka, followed by the main cone-building stage (Calientes III) at ~130–100 ka. Finally, the Holocene Calientes domes were emplaced and represent the last eruptive products of this edifice. The Yucamane volcano has been constructed in three stages: Yucamane I consists of a succession of andesitic lava flows exposed at the base of the volcano that are older than 40 ka. Yucamane II (~36–30 ka) comprises a thick sequence of block-and-ash-flow deposits that represents an episode of dome growth predating the younger Yucamane cone (Yucamane III) built after 20–25 ka. During the Holocene, Yucamane vulcanian to sub-Plinian activity has emplaced tephra-fall and pyroclastic-density-current deposits. The most recent explosive eruptions occurred ca. 3000 BP and emplaced a tephra-fall and pumice-flow deposits. Most samples from Calientes volcano are andesites and dacites (60.1–67.7 wt% SiO2), while rocks from Yucamane volcano are basaltic-andesites to dacites (53.4–66.9 wt% SiO2). The rocks have a mineral assemblage of plagioclase, amphibole, biotite, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, olivine, and Fe-Ti oxides. The analyzed samples are categorized within a high-K, calc-alkaline series. Calientes volcano erupted mostly andesitic magmas, but its history is punctuated by rare eruptions of silica-rich magmas. In contrast, Yucamane volcano follows a different trend characterized by a gradual decrease in silica content through post-glacial time, from the large (VEI 3) sub-Plinian andesitic eruption of ~3 ka to moderate (VEI ≤ 2) vulcanian eruptions of basaltic-andesitic. On the basis of such recurrent and recent (Holocene), low-to-moderate explosive activity, Yucamane must be considered an active and potentially threatening volcano, which may affect the province of Candarave with ~8000 inhabitants

Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.<br/

Climate and land-use shape the spread of zoonotic yellow fever virus

attente version publiée pour compléter informationsZoonotic viruses that originate in wildlife harm global human health and economic prosperity 1 . Understanding virus transmission at the human-animal-environment interface is a key component of pandemic risk-reduction 2,3 . Zoonotic disease emergence is highest in biodiverse, tropical forests undergoing intensive land-use change 4,5 . Phylodynamic analyses of virus genomes can powerfully test epidemiological hypotheses, but are rarely applied to viruses of animals inhabiting these habitats. Brazil’s densely-populated Atlantic Forest and Cerrado region experienced in 2016–2021 an explosive human outbreak of sylvatic yellow fever, caused by repeated virus spillover from wild neotropical primates 6 . Here we use yellow fever virus (YFV) genome sequences and epidemiological data from neotropical primates, humans, and mosquito vectors to identify the environmental, demographic, and climatic factors determining zoonotic virus spread. Using portable sequencing approaches we generated 498 YFV genomes, resulting in a well-sampled dataset of zoonotic virus genomes sampled from wild mammals. YFV dispersal velocity was slower at higher elevation, in colder regions, and further away from main roads. Virus lineage dispersal was more frequent through wetter areas, areas with high neotropical primate density and through landscapes covered by mosaic vegetation. Higher temperatures were associated with higher virus effective population sizes, and peaks of transmission in warmer, wetter seasons were associated with higher virus evolutionary rates. Our study demonstrates how zoonotic disease transmission is linked to land-use and climate, underscoring the need for One-Health approaches to reducing the rate of zoonotic spillover