A Proposed Hybrid Effect Size Plus p -Value Criterion: Empirical Evidence Supporting its Use

DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1564697 When the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology effectively banned the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) from articles published in their journal, it set off a fire-storm of discussions both supporting the decision and defending the utility of NHST in scientific research. At the heart of NHST is the p-value which is the probability of obtaining an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed in the sample data, given the null hypothesis and other model assumptions. Although this is conceptually different from the probability of the null hypothesis being true, given the sample, p-values nonetheless can provide evidential information, toward making an inference about a parameter. Applying a 10,000-case simulation described in this article, the authors found that p-values’ inferential signals to either reject or not reject a null hypothesis about the mean (α = 0.05) were consistent for almost 70% of the cases with the parameter’s true location for the sampled-from population. Success increases if a hybrid decision criterion, minimum effect size plus p-value (MESP), is used. Here, rejecting the null also requires the difference of the observed statistic from the exact null to be meaningfully large or practically significant, in the researcher’s judgment and experience. The simulation compares performances of several methods: from p-value and/or effect size-based, to confidence-interval based, under various conditions of true location of the mean, test power, and comparative sizes of the meaningful distance and population variability. For any inference procedure that outputs a binary indicator, like flagging whether a p-value is significant, the output of one single experiment is not sufficient evidence for a definitive conclusion. Yet, if a tool like MESP generates a relatively reliable signal and is used knowledgeably as part of a research process, it can provide useful information

Enhancement of second-order nonlinear-optical signals by optical stimulation

Second-order nonlinear optical interactions such as sum- and difference-frequency generation are widely used for bioimaging and as selective probes of interfacial environments. However, inefficient nonlinear optical conversion often leads to poor signal-to-noise ratio and long signal acquisition times. Here, we demonstrate the dramatic enhancement of weak second-order nonlinear optical signals via stimulated sum- and difference-frequency generation. We present a conceptual framework to quantitatively describe the interaction and show that the process is highly sensitive to the relative optical phase of the stimulating field. To emphasize the utility of the technique, we demonstrate stimulated enhancement of second harmonic generation (SHG) from bovine collagen-I fibrils. Using a stimulating pulse fluence of only 3 nJ/cm2, we obtain an SHG enhancement >10^4 relative to the spontaneous signal. The stimulation enhancement is greatest in situations where spontaneous signals are the weakest - such as low laser power, small sample volume, and weak nonlinear susceptibility - emphasizing the potential for this technique to improve signal-to-noise ratios in biological imaging and interfacial spectroscopy

Perspective on Bank Capital Adequacy: Time-Series Analysis

The first part of this paper provides a historical perspective on bank risks. Five-year moving average measures of total risk, market risk, and nonmarket risk are computed for an index of New York banks from 1929-1975 and for an index of outside New York banks from 1950-1976.We use a carefully constructed series of bank balance sheet data to compute correlations among various components of New York banks' port-folios and observe trends over time. The time series relationship between book values and market values is investigated, and classical measures of capital adequacy are calculated using surrogates for market values rather than book values. Finally, data are presented on the movement of interest rates and the term structure over time. Serial correlations and cross-correlations are computed. The second part of the paper uses the technique proposed in Sharpe ("Bank Capital Adequacy, Deposit Insurance and Security Values," June 1978) to gain information about capital adequacy. He has shown that for a bank with deposit liabilities that do not extend beyond the review period a "value preserving spread" in asset risk is likely to increase the value of capital. Moreover, the less adequate the capital, the larger this effect should be. We outline the method used to develop an econometric model to test for this effect. The model is then applied to time series data from 1938 to 1975.

Ultrafast Charge Transfer at a Quantum Dot/2D Materials Interface Probed by Second Harmonic Generation

Hybrid quantum dot (QD) / transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) heterostructures are attractive components of next generation optoelectronic devices, which take advantage of the spectral tunability of QDs and the charge and exciton transport properties of TMDs. Here, we demonstrate tunable electronic coupling between CdSe QDs and monolayer WS$_2$ using variable length alkanethiol ligands on the QD surface. Using femtosecond time-resolved second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy, we show that electron transfer from photoexcited CdSe QDs to single-layer WS$_2$ occurs on ultrafast (50 fs - 1 ps) timescales. Moreover, in the samples exhibiting the fastest charge transfer rates ($\leq$ 50 fs) we observed oscillations in the time-domain signal corresponding to an acoustic phonon mode of the donor QD, which coherently modulates the SHG response of the underlying WS$_2$ layer. These results reveal surprisingly strong electronic coupling at the QD/TMD interface and demonstrate the usefulness of time-resolved SHG for exploring ultrafast electronic-vibrational dynamics in TMD heterostructures

Exciton Trapping Is Responsible for the Long Apparent Lifetime in Acid-Treated MoS2

Here, we show that deep trapped "dark" exciton states are responsible for the surprisingly long lifetime of band-edge photoluminescence in acid-treated single-layer MoS2. Temperature-dependent transient photoluminescence spectroscopy reveals an exponential tail of long-lived states extending hundreds of meV into the band gap. These sub-band states, which are characterized by a 4 microsecond radiative lifetime, quickly capture and store photogenerated excitons before subsequent thermalization up to the band edge where fast radiative recombination occurs. By intentionally saturating these trap states, we are able to measure the "true" 150 ps radiative lifetime of the band-edge exciton at 77 K, which extrapolates to ~600 ps at room temperature. These experiments reveal the dominant role of dark exciton states in acid-treated MoS2, and suggest that excitons spend > 95% of their lifetime at room temperature in trap states below the band edge. We hypothesize that these states are associated with native structural defects, which are not introduced by the superacid treatment; rather, the superacid treatment dramatically reduces non-radiative recombination through these states, extending the exciton lifetime and increasing the likelihood of eventual radiative recombination

WB Goodman to Professor Silver, 11 February 1963

Professional correspondenc

Alcoholic Beverage Sales to Underage Buyers in The Commonwealth of Virginia: Deterrence and Equality

The Commonwealth of Virginia relies on the Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) to enforce laws designed to deter alcohol and cigarette sales to underage persons. ABC employs underage buyers (UAB) who attempt to make controlled purchases of alcoholic beverages and cigarettes. The primary purpose of this research project is to determine if compliance checks deter alcohol sales to underage persons. Second, this study attempts to find if underage buyer demographics align with state demographics. Finally, this research attempts to determine if businesses are more likely to sell alcohol to underage buyers based on their race, ethnicity, and gender. This study analyzed 5,704 compliance checks using linear regression, cross tabulation, and chi-square. Findings confirm that compliance checks deter illegal sales to underage buyers. ABC package store compliance increased 9 percent and retail compliance increased 14 percent. Additionally, ABC employed a disproportionate percentage of white underage buyers compared to black underage buyers, and Asian underage buyers. In regard to gender ABC employed a disproportionate percentage of male UAB compared to female UAB. Finally, this study discovered that ABC package stores sell alcohol to black underage buyers at significantly higher rates and that retail businesses also sell alcohol to black underage buyers at higher rates, but the result is not significant

Demonstration of Minimally Machined Honeycomb Silicon Carbide Mirrors

Honeycomb silicon carbide composite mirrors are made from a carbon fiber preform that is molded into a honeycomb shape using a rigid mold. The carbon fiber honeycomb is densified by using polymer infiltration pyrolysis, or through a reaction with liquid silicon. A chemical vapor deposit, or chemical vapor composite (CVC), process is used to deposit a polishable silicon or silicon carbide cladding on the honeycomb structure. Alternatively, the cladding may be replaced by a freestanding, replicated CVC SiC facesheet that is bonded to the honeycomb. The resulting carbon fiber-reinforced silicon carbide honeycomb structure is a ceramic matrix composite material with high stiffness and mechanical strength, high thermal conductivity, and low CTE (coefficient of thermal expansion). This innovation enables rapid, inexpensive manufacturing. The web thickness of the new material is less than 1 millimeter, and core geometries tailored. These parameters are based on precursor carbon-carbon honeycomb material made and patented by Ultracor. It is estimated at the time of this reporting that the HoneySiC(Trademark) will have a net production cost on the order of $38,000 per square meter. This includes an Ultracor raw material cost of about$97,000 per square meter, and a Trex silicon carbide deposition cost of $27,000 per square meter. Even at double this price, HoneySiC would beat NASA's goal of$100,000 per square meter. Cost savings are estimated to be 40 to 100 times that of current mirror technologies. The organic, rich prepreg material has a density of 56 kilograms per cubic meter. A charred carbon-carbon panel (volatile organics burnt off) has a density of 270 kilograms per cubic meter. Therefore, it is estimated that a HoneySiC panel would have a density of no more than 900 kilograms per cubic meter, which is about half that of beryllium and about onethird the density of bulk silicon carbide. It is also estimated that larger mirrors could be produced in a matter of weeks. Each cell is completely uniform, maintaining the shape of the inserted mandrel. Furthermore, the layup creates pressure that insures node bond strength. Each node is a composite laminate using only the inherent resin system to form the bond. This contrasts starkly with the other known method of producing composite honeycomb, in which individual corrugations are formed, cured, and then bonded together in a secondary process. By varying the size of the mandrels within the layup, varying degrees of density can be achieved. Typical sizes are 3/8 and 3/16 in. (approximately 10 and 5 millimeters). Cell sizes up to 1 in. (approximately 25 millimeters) have been manufactured. Similarly, the shape of the core can be altered for a flexible honeycomb structure

The Undetectable Difference: An Experimental Look at the ‘Problem’ of p-Values

In the face of continuing assumptions by many scientists and journal editors that p-values provide a gold standard for inference, counter warnings are published periodically. But the core problem is not with p-values, per se. A finding that “p-value is less than α” could merely signal that a critical value has been exceeded. The question is why, when estimating a parameter, we provide a range (a confidence interval), but when testing a hypothesis about a parameter (e.g. µ = x) we proceed as if “=” entails exact equality of the parameter with x. That standard is hard to meet, and is not a standard expected for power calculations, where we are satisfied to reject a null hypothesis H0 if the result is merely “detectably” different from (exact) H0. This paper explores, with resampling (simulation) methods, the impacts on p-values, and alternatives, if the null hypothesis is defined as a thick or thin range of values. It also examines, empirically, the extent to which the p-value may or may not be a good predictor of the probability that H0 is true, given the distribution of the data