The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Austerity Policies in Britain

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between electoral support and the economy over the period 2004 to 2014, paying particular attention to the impact of the economic strategy pursued by the Coalition government in Britain since the general election in May 2010. This involves modelling the relationship between voting intentions, perceptions of economic performance, and a variety of other variables using survey data collected each month from 2004. The evidence shows that when Labour was in office, support for the party was strongly influenced by the state of the economy, as was support for the opposition parties. However, since the Coalition came to power, the relationship between the economy and political support has changed, with neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats gaining from a fairly rapid growth in economic optimism which has taken place since early 2013. The paper explains this change in terms of a growing perception among the public that none of the major parties can effectively manage Britain?s economic problems. It is also the case that optimism about the national economy has not significantly percolated down to the level of the individual voter. So individuals may be more optimistic about the future of the national economy but they are still being badly affected by the recession

Forty years studying British politics : the decline of Anglo-America

The still present belief some 40 years ago that British politics was both exceptional and superior has been replaced by more theoretically sophisticated analyses based on a wider and more rigorously deployed range of research techniques, although historical analysis appropriately remains important. The American influence on the study of British politics has declined, but the European Union dimension has not been fully integrated. The study of interest groups has been in some respects a fading paradigm, but important questions related to democratic health have still to be addressed. Public administration has been supplanted by public policy, but economic policy remains under-studied. A key challenge for the future is the study of the management of expectations

Avian Influenza Virus Glycoproteins Restrict Virus Replication and Spread through Human Airway Epithelium at Temperatures of the Proximal Airways

Transmission of avian influenza viruses from bird to human is a rare event even though avian influenza viruses infect the ciliated epithelium of human airways in vitro and ex vivo. Using an in vitro model of human ciliated airway epithelium (HAE), we demonstrate that while human and avian influenza viruses efficiently infect at temperatures of the human distal airways (37°C), avian, but not human, influenza viruses are restricted for infection at the cooler temperatures of the human proximal airways (32°C). These data support the hypothesis that avian influenza viruses, ordinarily adapted to the temperature of the avian enteric tract (40°C), rarely infect humans, in part due to differences in host airway regional temperatures. Previously, a critical residue at position 627 in the avian influenza virus polymerase subunit, PB2, was identified as conferring temperature-dependency in mammalian cells. Here, we use reverse genetics to show that avianization of residue 627 attenuates a human virus, but does not account for the different infection between 32°C and 37°C. To determine the mechanism of temperature restriction of avian influenza viruses in HAE at 32°C, we generated recombinant human influenza viruses in either the A/Victoria/3/75 (H3N2) or A/PR/8/34 (H1N1) genetic background that contained avian or avian-like glycoproteins. Two of these viruses, A/Victoria/3/75 with L226Q and S228G mutations in hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) from A/Chick/Italy/1347/99 and A/PR/8/34 containing the H7 and N1 from A/Chick/Italy/1347/99, exhibited temperature restriction approaching that of wholly avian influenza viruses. These data suggest that influenza viruses bearing avian or avian-like surface glycoproteins have a reduced capacity to establish productive infection at the temperature of the human proximal airways. This temperature restriction may limit zoonotic transmission of avian influenza viruses and suggests that adaptation of avian influenza viruses to efficient infection at 32°C may represent a critical evolutionary step enabling human-to-human transmission

Borrelia burgdorferi Requires the Alternative Sigma Factor RpoS for Dissemination within the Vector during Tick-to-Mammal Transmission

While the roles of rpoSBb and RpoS-dependent genes have been studied extensively within the mammal, the contribution of the RpoS regulon to the tick-phase of the Borrelia burgdorferi enzootic cycle has not been examined. Herein, we demonstrate that RpoS-dependent gene expression is prerequisite for the transmission of spirochetes by feeding nymphs. RpoS-deficient organisms are confined to the midgut lumen where they transform into an unusual morphotype (round bodies) during the later stages of the blood meal. We show that round body formation is rapidly reversible, and in vitro appears to be attributable, in part, to reduced levels of Coenzyme A disulfide reductase, which among other functions, provides NAD+ for glycolysis. Our data suggest that spirochetes default to an RpoS-independent program for round body formation upon sensing that the energetics for transmission are unfavorable

It's About Time: Modelling Political and Social Dynamics

Extending the basic regression model to the analysis of processes, which entail modelling time. The example demonstrates using Box?Jenkins ARIMA intervention and transfer function models, and error correction models, and introduces and interprets statistical tests such as the Q?test and the Dickey?Fuller t?ratio

The Endogeneity of Preferences in Spatial Models: Evidence from the 2005 British Election Study

Anthony Downs? highly influential spatial model of electoral choice assumes that voters? ideological/policy preferences are fixed. This paper uses a national internet experiment conducted in the 2005 British Election Study to turn this assumption into a testable hypothesis. Pace Downs, results indicate that voters? preferences are not exogenous, but rather can be influenced by information about the ideological/policy positions of political parties, such as that provided in election campaigns. Voters are attracted by party cues, rather than repelled by them. Information about the positions of party leaders per se is inconsequential. These findings have important implications for the specification of spatial models and the design of national election studies