Public finance, trade, and development : what have we learned?

Interdependence of trade and public finance policy are important considerations in designing macroeconomic policy, public revenue policy, and public expenditure policy. A competitive real exchange rate, improved trade performance, and trade liberalization are all built on the base of sound fiscal management. Trade policies and trade liberalization may, however have a negative effect on fiscal balances, which must be considered and compensated for. Improving competitiveness and reducing protection is likely to involve reform of both trade tariffs and domestic taxation. Greater reliance on efficiently designed user charges will also help make a country more competitive internationally. Correct priorities should be set for public expenditures - whether they are rising or falling - to ensure that they are supportive of trade and of tradeable goods production.Public Sector Economics&Finance,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research

Rain estimation from satellites: An examination of the Griffith-Woodley technique

The Griffith-Woodley Technique (GWT) is an approach to estimating precipitation using infrared observations of clouds from geosynchronous satellites. It is examined in three ways: an analysis of the terms in the GWT equations; a case study of infrared imagery portraying convective development over Florida; and the comparison of a simplified equation set and resultant rain map to results using the GWT. The objective is to determine the dominant factors in the calculation of GWT rain estimates. Analysis of a single day's convection over Florida produced a number of significant insights into various terms in the GWT rainfall equations. Due to the definition of clouds by a threshold isotherm the majority of clouds on this day did not go through an idealized life cycle before losing their identity through merger, splitting, etc. As a result, 85% of the clouds had a defined life of 0.5 or 1 h. For these clouds the terms in the GWT which are dependent on cloud life history become essentially constant. The empirically derived ratio of radar echo area to cloud area is given a singular value (0.02) for 43% of the sample, while the rainrate term is 20.7 mmh-1 for 61% of the sample. For 55% of the sampled clouds the temperature weighting term is identically 1.0. Cloud area itself is highly correlated (r=0.88) with GWT computed rain volume. An important, discriminating parameter in the GWT is the temperature defining the coldest 10% cloud area. The analysis further shows that the two dominant parameters in rainfall estimation are the existence of cold cloud and the duration of cloud over a point

Reconciling dwarf galaxies with LCDM cosmology: Simulating a realistic population of satellites around a Milky Way-mass galaxy

Low-mass "dwarf" galaxies represent the most significant challenges to the cold dark matter (CDM) model of cosmological structure formation. Because these faint galaxies are (best) observed within the Local Group (LG) of the Milky Way (MW) and Andromeda (M31), understanding their formation in such an environment is critical. We present first results from the Latte Project: the Milky Way on FIRE (Feedback in Realistic Environments). This simulation models the formation of a MW-mass galaxy to z = 0 within LCDM cosmology, including dark matter, gas, and stars at unprecedented resolution: baryon particle mass of 7070 Msun with gas kernel/softening that adapts down to 1 pc (with a median of 25 - 60 pc at z = 0). Latte was simulated using the GIZMO code with a mesh-free method for accurate hydrodynamics and the FIRE-2 model for star formation and explicit feedback within a multi-phase interstellar medium. For the first time, Latte self-consistently resolves the spatial scales corresponding to half-light radii of dwarf galaxies that form around a MW-mass host down to Mstar > 10^5 Msun. Latte's population of dwarf galaxies agrees with the LG across a broad range of properties: (1) distributions of stellar masses and stellar velocity dispersions (dynamical masses), including their joint relation; (2) the mass-metallicity relation; and (3) a diverse range of star-formation histories, including their mass dependence. Thus, Latte produces a realistic population of dwarf galaxies at Mstar > 10^5 Msun that does not suffer from the "missing satellites" or "too big to fail" problems of small-scale structure formation. We conclude that baryonic physics can reconcile observed dwarf galaxies with standard LCDM cosmology.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters. Several updates, including: (1) fixed a bug in halo finder, now identifies 13 satellite galaxies and more subhalos in the baryonic simulation; (2) fixed a minor bug in the feedback coupling and reran the simulation, resulting in a somewhat lower-mass host galaxy; (3) Fig 2 now shows stellar velocity dispersion profiles of satellite

Effect of rainfall patterns on soil surface CO(2 )efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature and plant growth in a grassland ecosystem of northern Ontario, Canada: implications for climate change

BACKGROUND: The effect of rainfall patterns on soil surface CO(2 )efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature and plant growth was investigated in a grassland ecosystem of northern Ontario, Canada, where climatic change is predicted to introduce new precipitation regimes. Rain shelters were established in a fallow field consisting mainly of Trifolium hybridum L., Trifolium pratense L., and Phleum pratense L. Daytime ambient air temperatures within the shelters increased by an average of 1.9°C similar to predicted future increases in air temperatures for this region. To simulate six precipitation regimes which cover the maximum range to be expected under climate change, a portable irrigation system was designed to modify the frequency of monthly rainfall events with a constant delivery rate of water, while maintaining contemporary average precipitation volumes. Controls consisted of blocks irrigated with frequencies and total monthly precipitation consistent with the 25 year average rainfall for this location. RESULTS: Seasonal soil moisture correlated with soil surface CO(2 )efflux (R = 0.756, P < 0.001) and above ground plant biomass (R = 0.447, P = 0.029). By reducing irrigation frequency, soil surface CO(2 )efflux decreased by 80%, P < 0.001, while soil moisture content decreased by 42%, P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Manipulating the number of precipitation events and inter-rainfall intervals, while maintaining monthly rainfall averages impacted CO(2 )efflux and plant growth. Even with monthly rainfall averages that are similar to contemporary monthly precipitation averages, decreasing the number of monthly rainfall events reduced soil surface CO(2 )efflux and plant growth through soil moisture deficits. Although many have speculated that climate change will increase ecosystem productivity, our results show that a reduction in the number of monthly rainfall events while maintaining monthly averages will limit carbon dynamics

Breathing FIRE: How Stellar Feedback Drives Radial Migration, Rapid Size Fluctuations, and Population Gradients in Low-Mass Galaxies

We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies ($M_{\rm star}=2\times10^6-5\times10^{10}{\rm M_{\odot}}$) using the FIRE (Feedback in Realistic Environments) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate $\sim1{\rm\,kpc}$ within their first $100 {\rm\,Myr}$, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies' effective radii can fluctuate by factors of $>2$ over $\sim200 {\rm\,Myr}$, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in radius at fixed $M_{\rm star}.$ Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes---and even inverts---intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star-formation histories from stellar populations at $z=0$ can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at $M_{\rm star}\approx10^{7-9.6}{\rm M_{\odot}}$, the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in $\Lambda$CDM.Comment: Accepted to ApJ (820, 131) with minor revisions from v1. Figure 4 now includes dark matter. Main results in Figures 7 and 1

Black Holes on FIRE: Stellar Feedback Limits Early Feeding of Galactic Nuclei

We introduce massive black holes (BHs) in the Feedback In Realistic Environments project and perform high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of quasar-mass halos ($M_{\rm halo}(z=2) \approx 10^{12.5}\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$) down to $z=1$. These simulations model stellar feedback by supernovae, stellar winds, and radiation, and BH growth using a gravitational torque-based prescription tied to resolved properties of galactic nuclei. We do not include BH feedback. We show that early BH growth occurs through short ($\lesssim 1\,$Myr) accretion episodes that can reach or even exceed the Eddington rate. In this regime, BH growth is limited by bursty stellar feedback continuously evacuating gas from galactic nuclei, and BHs remain under-massive relative to the local $M_{\rm BH}$-$M_{\rm bulge}$ relation. BH growth is more efficient at later times, when the nuclear stellar potential retains a significant gas reservoir, star formation becomes less bursty, and galaxies settle into a more ordered state, with BHs rapidly converging onto the scaling relation when the host reaches $M_{\rm bulge} \sim 10^{10}\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$. Our results are not sensitive to the details of the accretion model so long as BH growth is tied to the gas content within $\sim 100\,$pc of the BH. Our simulations imply that bursty stellar feedback has strong implications for BH and AGN demographics, especially in the early Universe and for low-mass galaxies.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to MNRA

Under the Firelight: Stellar Tracers of the Local Dark Matter Velocity Distribution in the Milky Way

The Gaia era opens new possibilities for discovering the remnants of disrupted satellite galaxies in the Solar neighborhood. If the population of local accreted stars is correlated with the dark matter sourced by the same mergers, one can then map the dark matter distribution directly. Using two cosmological zoom-in hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way-mass galaxies from the Latte suite of Fire-2 simulations, we find a strong correlation between the velocity distribution of stars and dark matter at the solar circle that were accreted from luminous satellites. This correspondence holds for dark matter that is either relaxed or in kinematic substructure called debris flow, and is consistent between two simulated hosts with different merger histories. The correspondence is more problematic for streams because of possible spatial offsets between the dark matter and stars. We demonstrate how to reconstruct the dark matter velocity distribution from the observed properties of the accreted stellar population by properly accounting for the ratio of stars to dark matter contributed by individual mergers. After demonstrating this method using the Fire-2 simulations, we apply it to the Milky Way and use it to recover the dark matter velocity distribution associated with the recently discovered stellar debris field in the Solar neighborhood. Based on results from Gaia, we estimate that $42 ^{+26}_{-22}\%$ of the local dark matter that is accreted from luminous mergers is in debris flow.Comment: 18+5 pages, 12+5 figures. Supplementary Data can be found here https://linoush.github.io/DM_Velocity_Distribution

Forward dispersion relations and Roy equations in pi-pi scattering

We review results of an analysis of pipi interactions in S, P and D waves for two-pion effective mass from threshold to about 1.4 GeV. In particular we show a recent improvement of this analysis above the K anti-K threshold using more data for phase shifts and including the S0 wave inelasticity from pipi -> K anti-K. In addition, we have improved the fit to the f2(1270) resonance and used a more flexible P wave parametrization above the K anti-K threshold and included an estimation of the D2 wave inelasticity. The better accuracy thus achieved also required a refinement of the Regge analysis above 1.42 GeV. We have checked that the pipi scattering amplitudes obtained in this approach satisfy remarkably well forward dispersion relations and Roy's equations.Comment: 6 pages, invited talk to the IV International Conference on Quarks and Nuclear Physics QNP06, Madrid 5th-10th June 200