Inference about predictive ability

estimation;testing;forecasting

Instrumental variables estimation of heteroskedastic linear models using all lags of instruments

estimation;linear models

On Optimal Instrumental Variables Estimation of Time Series Models.

In many time series models, an infinite number of moments can be used for estimation in a large sample. I supply a technically undemanding proof of a condition for optimal instrumental variables use of such moments in a parametric model. I also illustrate application of the condition in estimation of an autoregression with a conditionally heteroskedastic disturbance.TIME SERIES ; EVALUATION

Encompassing tests when no model is encompassing

regression analysis

Hyaluronic Acid Binding Sperm Selection for assisted reproduction treatment (HABSelect): Study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial

© Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited.Introduction The selection of a sperm with good genomic integrity is an important consideration for improving intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) outcome. Current convention selects sperm by vigour and morphology, but preliminary evidence suggests selection based on hyaluronic acid binding may be beneficial. The aim of the Hyaluronic Acid Binding Sperm Selection (HABSelect) trial is to determine the efficacy of hyaluronic acid (HA)-selection of sperm versus conventionally selected sperm prior to ICSI on live birth rate (LBR). The mechanistic aim is to assess whether and how the chromatin state of HA-selected sperm corresponds with clinical outcomes - clinical pregnancy rate (CPR), LBR and pregnancy loss (PL). Methods and analysis Couples attending UK Centres will be approached, eligibility screening performed and informed consent sought. Randomisation will occur within 24 hours prior to ICSI treatment. Participants will be randomly allocated 1:1 to the intervention arm (physiological intracytoplasmic sperm injection, PICSI) versus the control arm using conventional methods (ICSI). The primary clinical outcome is LBR ≥37 weeks' gestation with the mechanistic study determining LBR's relationship with sperm DNA integrity. Secondary outcomes will determine this for CPR and PL. Only embryologists performing the procedure will be aware of the treatment allocation. Steps will be taken to militate against biases arising from embryologists being non-blinded. Randomisation will use a minimisation algorithm to balance for key prognostic variables. The trial is powered to detect a 5% difference (24-29%: p=0.05) in LBR ≥37 weeks' gestation. Selected residual sperm samples will be tested by one or more assays of DNA integrity. Ethics and dissemination HABSelect is a UK NIHR-EME funded study (reg no 11/14/34; IRAS REF. 13/YH/0162). The trial was designed in partnership with patient and public involvement to help maximise patient benefits. Trial findings will be reported as per CONSORT guidelines and will be made available in lay language via the trial web site (http://www.habselect.org.uk/). Trial registration number ISRCTN99214271; Pre-results

New early Eocene tapiromorph perissodactyls from the Ghazij Formation of Pakistan, with implications for mammalian biochronology in Asia

Early Eocene mammals from Indo-Pakistan have only recently come under study. Here we describe the first tapiromorph perissodactyls from the subcontinent. Gandheralophus minor n. gen. and n. sp. and G. robustus n. sp. are two species of Isectolophidae differing in size and in reduction of the anterior dentition. Gandheralophus is probably derived from a primitive isectolophid such as Orientolophus hengdongensis from the earliest Eocene of China, and may be part of a South Asian lineage that also contains Karagalax from the middle Eocene of Pakistan. Two specimens are referred to a new, unnamed species of Lophialetidae. Finally, a highly diagnostic M3 and a molar fragment are described as the new eomoropid chalicothere Litolophus ghazijensis sp. nov. The perissodactyls described here, in contrast to most other mammalian groups published from the early Eocene of Indo-Pakistan, are most closely related to forms known from East and Central Asia. Tapiromorpha are diverse and biochronologically important in the Eocene there and our results allow the first biochronological correlation between early Eocene mammal faunas in Indo-Pakistan and the rest of Asia. We suggest that the upper Ghazij Formation of Pakistan is best correlated with the middle or late part of the Bumbanian Asian Land-Mammal Age, while the Kuldana and Subathu Formations of Pakistan and India are best correlated with the Arshantan Asian Land-Mammal Age

Wholesale pricing in a small open economy

This paper addresses the empirical analysis of wholesale profit margins using data of the Dutch wholesale sector, 1986. At the heart of the analysis is the typical nature of wholesale production: wholesalers do not produce a tangible product, but offer a service capacity. This has an immediate impact on the identification, interprelation and measurement of determinants of profit variations. A model is set up to explain variations in wholesale profit margins, which is inspired by two widely applied approaches to industry pricing: the behavioural mark-up model and the marginalist price-cost model

New System for the Acceleration of the Airflow in Wind Turbines

Background: This patent is based on the wind industry technology called Diffuser Augmented Wind Turbines (DAWTs). This technology consists of a horizontal axis wind turbine, which is housed inside a duct with diverging section in the direction of the free air stream. In this paper, a review of preceding patents related to this technology is carried out. Objective: This paper presents an innovative patent to improve the performance of horizontal axis wind turbines. In particular, this system is aimed at improving the performance of those turbines that otherwise might not be installed due to the low wind resource existing at certain locations. Methods: The most innovative elements of this patent are: (1) the semi-spherical grooves, which are mechanized on the surface of the two diffusers in order to guarantee a more energetic boundary layer; (2) the coaxial diffuser, which is located downwind following the first diffuser in order to increase the suction effect on the air mass close to the inlet; (3) the coaxial rings located around the first diffuser outlet, which are used to deflect the external airflow toward the turbine wake; and (4), the selforientating system to orientate the system by the prevailing wind direction. Results: An application of the patent for increasing the power generated by a horizontal axis wind turbine with three blades is presented. The patent is designed and its performance is evaluated by using a Computational Fluid Dynamics code. The numerical results show that this system rises the airflow going through the rotor of the turbine. Conclusion: The patented device is an original contribution aimed at enabling a more profitable installation of wind turbines in places where the wind resource is insufficient because of the wind shear caused both by the proximity of the earth and the obstacles on the earth surface.This work was supported by the OASIS Research Project that was cofinanced by CDTI (Spanish Science and Innovation Ministry) and developed with the Spanish companies: Iridium, OHL Concesiones, Abertis, Sice, Indra, Dragados, OHL, Geocisa, GMV, Asfaltos Augusta, Hidrofersa, Eipsa, PyG, CPS, AEC and Torre de Comares Arquitectos S.L and 16 research centres. The authors also acknowledge the partial funding with FEDER funds under the Research Project FC-15-GRUPIN14-004. Finally, we also thank Swanson Analysis Inc. for the use of ANSYS University Research programs as well as the Workbench simulation environment

Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study

A41 Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study In: Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 2017, 12(Suppl 1): A4