Codependence and Cointegration

We introduce the idea of common serial correlation features among non-stationary, cointegrated variables. That is, the time series do not only trend together in the long run, but adjustment restores equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. Allowing for delayed re-equilibration, we extend the framework to codependence. The restrictions derived for VECMs exhibiting the common feature are checked by LR and GMM-type tests. Alongside, we provide corrected maximum codependence orders and discuss identification. The concept is applied to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates

Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables

We analyze non-stationary time series that do not only trend together in the long run, but restore the equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. While this represents a common serial correlation feature, the framework is extended to codependence, allowing for delayed adjustment. We show which restrictions are implied for VECMs and lay out a likelihood ratio test. In addition, due to identification problems in codependent VECMs a GMM test approach is proposed. We apply the concept to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates

Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland

This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse responses. Several Wald tests are applied to the latter hypothesis. Results reveal that differences in the GDP dynamics in several peripheral countries compared to a euro zone core are triggered by idiosyncratic, and to a lesser extent also world, shocks. Additionally, real shocks prove relevant rather than nominal ones

Codependence and Cointegration

We introduce the idea of common serial correlation features among non-stationary, cointegrated variables. That is, the time series do not only trend together in the long run, but adjustment restores equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. Allowing for delayed re-equilibration, we extend the framework to codependence. The restrictions derived for VECMs exhibiting the common feature are checked by LR and GMM-type tests. Alongside, we provide corrected maximum codependence orders and discuss identification. The concept is applied to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates.VAR; serial correlation common features; codependence; cointegration

Combined Accumulation- and Decumulation-Plans with Risk-Controlled Capital Protection

We base our analysis on an investor, usually a retiree, endowed with a certain amount of wealth W, who considers both his own consumption needs (fixed periodic withdrawals) and the requirement of his heirs (defined bequest). For this purpose he pursues the following in-vestment strategy. The part F is invested in a set of investment funds with the target to achieve an accumulated wealth at the end of a certain time horizon of at least the original amount of wealth W (or the fraction ), measured in real terms. As certain investment risks are implied, we allow for the probability of falling short of the target and implement it into our model as a risk control parameter. The remaining part MM of the original wealth is invested in money market funds in order to avoid additional investment risks and deliver fixed periodic withdrawals until the end of the respective time horizon. The optimal investment strategy is the investment fund allocation that satisfies the probability of shortfall and mini-mizes F, while maximizing the fixed periodic withdrawals. We outline this investment prob-lem in a mathematical model and illustrate the solution for a reasonable choice of empirical parameters.

Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis

This paper contributes to the debate about the impact of population ageing on health care expenditure. Some health economists claim that the commonly presumed impact of population ageing is a "red herring". Based on empirical studies these authors conclude that proximity to death and not age per se matters. In projecting health care expenditure for Switzerland the present study provides evidence that proximity to death is of marginal importance. These projections suggest that population ageing is still the most important age-related cost-driver. Moreover, morbidity outweighs mortality as a factor of health-care expenditure. But most vital are non-demographic drivers such as medical progress. Thus, from the point of view of cost-benefit analysis one should even ignore costs of dying when projecting health care expenditure. Moreover, regressions might overestimate proximity to death due to systematic biases. Finally, ever-increasing health-care expenditure can be slowed down by appropriate policy measures.health-care expenditure; population ageing; public health-care budget; proximity to death, morbidity

On the Identification of Codependent VAR and VEC Models

In this paper we discuss identification of codependent VAR and VEC models. Codependence of order q is given if a linear combination of autocorrelated variables eliminates the serial correlation after q lags. Importantly, maximum likelihood estimation and corresponding likelihood ratio testing are only possible if the codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed. However, our study reveals that codependent VAR and VEC models are not generally identified. Nevertheless, we show that one can guarantee identification in case of serial correlation common features, i.e. when q=0, and for a single vector generating codependence of order q=1.Codependence; identification; VAR; cointegration; serial correlation common features

Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables

We analyze non-stationary time series that do not only trend together in the long run, but restore the equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. While this represents a common serial correlation feature, the framework is extended to codependence, allowing for delayed adjustment. We show which restrictions are implied for VECMs and lay out a likelihood ratio test. In addition, due to identification problems in codependent VECMs a GMM test approach is proposed. We apply the concept to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates.Serial correlation common features; codependence; cointegration; overnight interest rates; central banks

Asset/Liability Management of German Life Insurance Companies: A Value-at-Risk Approach in the Presence of Interest Rate Guarantees

This contribution analyses the implications of two major determinants influencing the asset allocation decision of German life insurers, which are the capital market development on the one hand and the interest rate guarantees of the traditional life insurance policies on the other hand. The adverse development of the stock prices between 2000 and 2002 asks for a consideration of not only the �normal� volatility but also the worst-case developments in an asset/liability management. In order to meet the latter requirement, we technically apply the risk measures of Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk. German life insurance policies incorporate interest rate guarantees, which are granted on an annual basis. This specific �myopic� nature of guarantees creates � beyond the control of the shortfall risk in general � the necessity to manage the asset allocation on an annual basis to match the time horizon of assets and liabilities. A quantitative approach analyses the impacts on the asset allocation decision. In our research we do not only consider market valuation, but also institutional peculiarities (such as hidden reserves and accounting norms) of German life insurers. We reveal the possibility of a riskless one-year investment, either based on market values or on book values, to be crucial for guaranteeing interest rates on an annual basis.