Forecasting U.S. Home Foreclosures with an Index of Internet Keyword Searches

Finding data to feed into financial and risk management models can be challenging. Many analysts attribute a lack of data or quality information as a contributing factor to the worldwide financial crises that seems to have begun in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. In this paper, a new source of data, key word search statistics recently available from Google, are applied in a experiment to develop a short-term forecasting model for the number of foreclosures in the U.S. housing market. The keyword search data significantly improves forecast of foreclosures, suggesting that this data can be useful for financial risk management. More generally, the new data source shows promise for a variety of financial and market analyses

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt

Observation of photon-induced W⁺W⁻ production in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV using the ATLAS detector

This letter reports the observation of photon-induced production of W-boson pairs, γγ→ WW. The analysis uses 139 fb-1 of LHC proton-proton collision data taken at √s=13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment during the years 2015-2018. The measurement is performed selecting one electron and one muon, corresponding to the decay of the diboson system as WW→e±νμ∓ν final state. The background-only hypothesis is rejected with a significance of well above 5 standard deviations consistent with the expectation from Monte Carlo simulation. A cross section for the γγ→ WW process of 3.13±0.31(stat.)±0.28(syst.) fb is measured in a fiducial volume close to the acceptance of the detector, by requiring an electron and a muon of opposite signs with large dilepton transverse momentum and exactly zero additional charged particles. This is found to be in agreement with the Standard Model prediction

Measurement of the total cross section and ρ -parameter from elastic scattering in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

In a special run of the LHC with β⋆=2.5 km, proton–proton elastic-scattering events were recorded at s√=13 TeV with an integrated luminosity of 340 μb−1 using the ALFA subdetector of ATLAS in 2016. The elastic cross section was measured differentially in the Mandelstam t variable in the range from −t=2.5⋅10−4 GeV2 to −t=0.46 GeV2 using 6.9 million elastic-scattering candidates. This paper presents measurements of the total cross section σtot, parameters of the nuclear slope, and the ρ-parameter defined as the ratio of the real part to the imaginary part of the elastic-scattering amplitude in the limit t→0. These parameters are determined from a fit to the differential elastic cross section using the optical theorem and different parameterizations of the t-dependence. The results for σtot and ρ are σtot(pp→X)=104.7±1.1 mb ,ρ=0.098±0.011. The uncertainty in σtot is dominated by the luminosity measurement, and in ρ by imperfect knowledge of the detector alignment and by modelling of the nuclear amplitude.publishedVersio

Searches for lepton-flavour-violating decays of the Higgs boson in s=13\sqrt{s}=13 TeV pp\mathit{pp} collisions with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents direct searches for lepton flavour violation in Higgs boson decays, H → eτ and H → μτ , performed with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The searches are based on a data sample of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy √s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No significant excess is observed above the expected background from Standard Model processes. The observed (median expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits on the leptonflavour-violating branching ratios are 0.47% (0.34+0.13−0.10%) and 0.28% (0.37+0.14−0.10%) for H → eτ and H → μτ , respectively.publishedVersio

Search for flavour-changing neutral currents in processes with one top quark and a photon using 81 fb⁻¹ of pp collisions at \sqrts = 13 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

A search for flavour-changing neutral current (FCNC) events via the coupling of a top quark, a photon, and an up or charm quark is presented using 81 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data taken at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events with a photon, an electron or muon, a b-tagged jet, and missing transverse momentum are selected. A neural network based on kinematic variables differentiates between events from signal and background processes. The data are consistent with the background-only hypothesis, and limits are set on the strength of the tqγ coupling in an effective field theory. These are also interpreted as 95% CL upper limits on the cross section for FCNC tγ production via a left-handed (right-handed) tuγ coupling of 36 fb (78 fb) and on the branching ratio for t→γu of 2.8×10−5 (6.1×10−5). In addition, they are interpreted as 95% CL upper limits on the cross section for FCNC tγ production via a left-handed (right-handed) tcγ coupling of 40 fb (33 fb) and on the branching ratio for t→γc of 22×10−5 (18×10−5). © 2019 The Author(s

The ATLAS Fast TracKer system

The ATLAS Fast TracKer (FTK) was designed to provide full tracking for the ATLAS high-level trigger by using pattern recognition based on Associative Memory (AM) chips and fitting in high-speed field programmable gate arrays. The tracks found by the FTK are based on inputs from all modules of the pixel and silicon microstrip trackers. The as-built FTK system and components are described, as is the online software used to control them while running in the ATLAS data acquisition system. Also described is the simulation of the FTK hardware and the optimization of the AM pattern banks. An optimization for long-lived particles with large impact parameter values is included. A test of the FTK system with the data playback facility that allowed the FTK to be commissioned during the shutdown between Run 2 and Run 3 of the LHC is reported. The resulting tracks from part of the FTK system covering a limited η-ϕ region of the detector are compared with the output from the FTK simulation. It is shown that FTK performance is in good agreement with the simulation

Efficacy and Safety of Three Antiretroviral Regimens for Initial Treatment of HIV-1: A Randomized Clinical Trial in Diverse Multinational Settings

Background:Antiretroviral regimens with simplified dosing and better safety are needed to maximize the efficiency of antiretroviral delivery in resource-limited settings. We investigated the efficacy and safety of antiretroviral regimens with once-daily compared to twice-daily dosing in diverse areas of the world.Methods and Findings:1,571 HIV-1-infected persons (47% women) from nine countries in four continents were assigned with equal probability to open-label antiretroviral therapy with efavirenz plus lamivudine-zidovudine (EFV+3TC-ZDV), atazanavir plus didanosine-EC plus emtricitabine (ATV+DDI+FTC), or efavirenz plus emtricitabine-tenofovir-disoproxil fumarate (DF) (EFV+FTC-TDF). ATV+DDI+FTC and EFV+FTC-TDF were hypothesized to be non-inferior to EFV+3TC-ZDV if the upper one-sided 95% confidence bound for the hazard ratio (HR) was ≤1.35 when 30% of participants had treatment failure.An independent monitoring board recommended stopping study follow-up prior to accumulation of 472 treatment failures. Comparing EFV+FTC-TDF to EFV+3TC-ZDV, during a median 184 wk of follow-up there were 95 treatment failures (18%) among 526 participants versus 98 failures among 519 participants (19%; HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.72-1.27; p = 0.74). Safety endpoints occurred in 243 (46%) participants assigned to EFV+FTC-TDF versus 313 (60%) assigned to EFV+3TC-ZDV (HR 0.64, CI 0.54-0.76; p<0.001) and there was a significant interaction between sex and regimen safety (HR 0.50, CI 0.39-0.64 for women; HR 0.79, CI 0.62-1.00 for men; p = 0.01). Comparing ATV+DDI+FTC to EFV+3TC-ZDV, during a median follow-up of 81 wk there were 108 failures (21%) among 526 participants assigned to ATV+DDI+FTC and 76 (15%) among 519 participants assigned to EFV+3TC-ZDV (HR 1.51, CI 1.12-2.04; p = 0.007).Conclusion: EFV+FTC-TDF had similar high efficacy compared to EFV+3TC-ZDV in this trial population, recruited in diverse multinational settings. Superior safety, especially in HIV-1-infected women, and once-daily dosing of EFV+FTC-TDF are advantageous for use of this regimen for initial treatment of HIV-1 infection in resource-limited countries. ATV+DDI+FTC had inferior efficacy and is not recommended as an initial antiretroviral regimen.Trial Registration:http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00084136

Search for long-lived neutral particles in pp collisions at s√=13 TeV that decay into displaced hadronic jets in the ATLAS calorimeter

This paper describes a search for pairs of neutral, long-lived particles decaying in the ATLAS calorimeter. Long-lived particles occur in many extensions to the Standard Model and may elude searches for new promptly decaying particles. The analysis considers neutral, long-lived scalars with masses between 5 and 400 GeV, produced from decays of heavy bosons with masses between 125 and 1000 GeV, where the long-lived scalars decay into Standard Model fermions. The analysis uses either 10.8 fb−1 or 33.0 fb−1 of data (depending on the trigger) recorded in 2016 at the LHC with the ATLAS detector in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant excess is observed, and limits are reported on the production cross section times branching ratio as a function of the proper decay length of the long-lived particles