Seasonality in future tropical lower stratospheric temperature trends

The seasonality of the 21st century trends in tropical lower stratospheric temperature (LST) is examined in simulations by a group of comprehensive chemistry-climate models. In contrast to the past LST trends, there is robust seasonal dependence among ensembles of the same model. Furthermore, most models show strongest cooling around July–September and minimal cooling in February–March, which results in a weakening of the seasonality in tropical LST. Sensitivity simulations with isolated forcing reveal that greenhouse gas increases dominate the future tropical LST trend. This seasonally varying LST trend is linked to changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). The BDC can influence the LST through direct dynamical heating/cooling and indirect radiative effects primarily from ozone changes due to vertical transport. The latter is found to be the main cause for the seasonality of the 21st century LST trend, while it is difficult to separate them in the past

The Role of Monsoon-Like Zonally Asymmetric Heating in Interhemispheric Transport

While the importance of the seasonal migration of the zonally averaged Hadley circulation on interhemispheric transport of trace gases has been recognized, few studies have examined the role of the zonally asymmetric monsoonal circulation. This study investigates the role of monsoon-like zonally asymmetric heating on interhemispheric transport using a dry atmospheric model that is forced by idealized Newtonian relaxation to a prescribed radiative equilibrium temperature. When only the seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric heating is considered, the mean age of air in the Southern Hemisphere since last contact with the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude boundary layer, is much larger than the observations. The introduction of monsoon-like zonally asymmetric heating not only reduces the mean age of tropospheric air to more realistic values, but also produces an upper-tropospheric cross-equatorial transport pathway in boreal summer that resembles the transport pathway simulated in the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry Transport Model driven with MERRA meteorological fields. These results highlight the monsoon-induced eddy circulation plays an important role in the interhemispheric transport of long-lived chemical constituents

Climatology of Intrusions into the Tropical Upper Troposphere

Regions of upper tropospheric equatorial westerly winds, observed over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during northern fall to spring, are important for extratropical-tropical interactions. This paper focuses on one feature of these “westerly ducts” that has received relatively little attention to date: the occurrence of Rossby wave breaking events that transport tongues of extratropical air deep into the tropics, mix tropical and subtropical air, and can affect deep convection. A climatology of these “intrusion” events formed from 20 years of meteorological analyses shows a strong dependence on the basic-state flow. Notably, intrusion events are found to occur almost exclusively within westerly ducts, with more events in the presence of stronger equatorial westerlies. It is also found that there is strong interannual variability in the frequency of Pacific events, with fewer events during the warm phases of ENSO (consistent with the changes in the basic flow). Since these intrusion events laterally mix trace constituents and have been linked to tropical convection, their spatial and temporal variability may cause related variability in the distribution of trace constituents and tropical convection

Stratospheric Polar Vortices

The intense cyclonic vortices that form over the winter pole are one of the most prominent features of the stratospheric circulation. The structure and dynamics of these “polar vortices” play a dominant role in the winter and spring stratospheric circulation and are key to determining distribution of trace gases, in particular ozone, and the couplings between the stratosphere and troposphere. In this chapter, we review the observed structure, dynamical theories, and modeling of these polar vortices.We consider both the zonal mean and three-dimensional potential vorticity perspective and examine the occurrence of extreme events and long-term trends

Upward Wave Activity Flux as a Precursor to Extreme Stratospheric Events and Subsequent Anomalous Surface Weather Regimes

It has recently been shown that extreme stratospheric events (ESEs) are followed by surface weather anomalies (for up to 60 days), suggesting that stratospheric variability might be used to extend weather prediction beyond current time scales. In this paper, attention is drawn away from the stratosphere to demonstrate that the originating point of ESEs is located in the troposphere. First, it is shown that anomalously strong eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa nearly always precede weak vortex events, and conversely, anomalously weak eddy heat fluxes precede strong vortex events, consistent with wave–mean flow interaction theory. This finding clarifies the dynamical nature of ESEs and suggests that a major source of stratospheric variability (and thus predictability) is located in the troposphere below and not in the stratosphere itself. Second, it is shown that the daily time series of eddy heat flux found at 100 hPa and integrated over the prior 40 days, exhibit a remarkably high anticorrelation (−0.8) with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index at 10 hPa. Following Baldwin and Dunkerton, it is then demonstrated that events with anomalously strong (weak) integrated eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa are followed by anomalously large (small) surface values of the AO index up to 60 days following each event. This suggests that the stratosphere is unlikely to be the dominant source of the anomalous surface weather regimes discussed in Thompson et al

The stability of Mars' annular polar vortex

This research was partially supported by a NASA grant from the Mars Fundamental Research Program (NNX14AG53G).The Martian polar atmosphere is known to have a persistent local minimum in potential vorticity (PV) near the winter pole, with a region of high PV encircling it. This finding is surprising since an isolated band of PV is barotropically unstable, a result going back to Rayleigh. Here we investigate the stability of a Mars-like annular vortex using numerical integrations of the rotating shallow water equations. We show how the mode of instability and its growth rate depends upon the latitude and width of the annulus. By introducing thermal relaxation towards an annular equilibrium profile with a time scale similar to that of the instability, we are able to simulate a persistent annular vortex with similar characteristics as that observed in the Martian atmosphere. This time scale, typically 0.5-2 sols, is similar to radiative relaxation time scales for Mars’ polar atmosphere. We also demonstrate that the persistence of an annular vortex is robust to topographic forcing, as long as it is below a certain amplitude. We hence propose that the persistence of this barotropically unstable annular vortex is permitted due to the combination of short radiative relaxation time scales and relatively weak topographic forcing in the Martian polar atmosphere.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean

Drivers of the Recent Tropical Expansion in the Southern Hemisphere: Changing SSTs or Ozone Depletion?

Observational evidence indicates that the southern edge of the Hadley cell (HC) has shifted southward during austral summer in recent decades. However, there is no consensus on the cause of this shift, with several studies reaching opposite conclusions as to the relative role of changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and stratospheric ozone depletion in causing this shift. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of the extant literature on this subject and quantitatively compare the results of all published studies that have used single-forcing model integrations to isolate the role of different factors on the HC expansion during austral summer. It is shown that the weight of the evidence clearly points to stratospheric ozone depletion as the dominant driver of the tropical summertime expansion over the period in which an ozone hole was formed (1979 to late 1990s), although SST trends have contributed to trends since then. Studies that have claimed SSTs as the major driver of tropical expansion since 1979 have used prescribed ozone fields that underrepresent the observed Antarctic ozone depletion

Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Zonal Asymmetries on the Tropospheric Circulation

The depletion and recovery of Antarctic ozone plays a major role in changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric climate. Recent studies indicate that the lack of polar ozone asymmetries in chemistry climate models (CCM) leads to a weaker and warmer Antarctic vortex, and smaller trends in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet and the surface pressure. However, the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries is not well understood. In this study we report on a series of integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to further examine the effect of zonal asymmetries on the state of the stratosphere and troposphere. Integrations with the full, interactive stratospheric chemistry are compared against identical simulations using the same CCM except that (1) the monthly mean zonal mean stratospheric ozone from first simulation is prescribed and (2) ozone is relaxed to the monthly mean zonal mean ozone on a three day time scale. To analyze the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries, we examine trends and quantify the differences in temperatures, zonal wind and surface pressure among the integrations

Air-Mass Origin as a Diagnostic of Tropospheric Transport

We introduce rigorously defined air masses as a diagnostic of tropospheric transport. The fractional contribution from each air mass partitions air at any given point according to either where it was last in the planetary boundary layer or where it was last in contact with the stratosphere. The utility of these air-mass fractions is demonstrated for the climate of a dynamical core circulation model and its response to specified heating. For an idealized warming typical of end-of-century projections, changes in air-mass fractions are in the order of 10% and reveal the model's climate change in tropospheric transport: poleward-shifted jets and surface-intensified eddy kinetic energy lead to more efficient stirring of air out of the midlatitude boundary layer, suggesting that, in the future, there may be increased transport of black carbon and industrial pollutants to the Arctic upper troposphere. Correspondingly, air is less efficiently mixed away from the subtropical boundary layer. The air-mass fraction that had last stratosphere contact at midlatitudes increases all the way to the surface, in part due to increased isentropic eddy transport across the tropopause. Correspondingly, the air-mass fraction that had last stratosphere contact at high latitudes is reduced through decreased downwelling across the tropopause. A weakened Hadley circulation leads to decreased interhemispheric transport in the model's future climate