Estimating the Causal Effects of Marketing Interventions Using Propensity Score Methodology

Propensity score methods were proposed by Rosenbaum and Rubin [Biometrika 70 (1983) 41--55] as central tools to help assess the causal effects of interventions. Since their introduction more than two decades ago, they have found wide application in a variety of areas, including medical research, economics, epidemiology and education, especially in those situations where randomized experiments are either difficult to perform, or raise ethical questions, or would require extensive delays before answers could be obtained. In the past few years, the number of published applications using propensity score methods to evaluate medical and epidemiological interventions has increased dramatically. Nevertheless, thus far, we believe that there have been few applications of propensity score methods to evaluate marketing interventions (e.g., advertising, promotions), where the tradition is to use generally inappropriate techniques, which focus on the prediction of an outcome from background characteristics and an indicator for the intervention using statistical tools such as least-squares regression, data mining, and so on. With these techniques, an estimated parameter in the model is used to estimate some global ``causal'' effect. This practice can generate grossly incorrect answers that can be self-perpetuating: polishing the Ferraris rather than the Jeeps ``causes'' them to continue to win more races than the Jeeps $\Leftrightarrow$ visiting the high-prescribing doctors rather than the low-prescribing doctors ``causes'' them to continue to write more prescriptions. This presentation will take ``causality'' seriously, not just as a casual concept implying some predictive association in a data set, and will illustrate why propensity score methods are generally superior in practice to the standard predictive approaches for estimating causal effects.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000259 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Hand hygiene compliance rates in the United States--a one-year multicenter collaboration using product/volume usage measurement and feedback.

Hand hygiene (HH) is the single most important factor in the prevention of health care-acquired infections. The 3 most frequently reported methods of measuring HH compliance are: (1) direct observation, (2) self-reporting by health care workers (HCWs), and (3) indirect calculation based on HH product usage. This article presents the results of a 12-month multicenter collaboration assessing HH compliance rates at US health care facilities by measuring product usage and providing feedback about HH compliance. Our results show that HH compliance at baseline was 26% for intensive care units (ICUs) and 36% for non-ICUs. After 12 months of measuring product usage and providing feedback, compliance increased to 37% for ICUs and 51% for non-ICUs. (ICU, P = .0119; non-ICU, P \u3c .001). HH compliance in the United States can increase when monitoring is combined with feedback. However, HH still occurs at or below 50% compli- ance for both ICUs and non-ICUs

Exploring the effects of demonstration and enactment in facilitating recall of instructions in working memory

Across the lifespan the ability to follow instructions is essential for the successful completion of a multitude of daily activities. This ability will often rely on the storage and processing of information in working memory, and previous research in this domain has found that self-enactment at encoding or observing other-enactment at encoding (demonstration) improves performance at recall. However, no working memory research has directly compared these manipulations. Experiment 1 explored the effects of both self-enactment and demonstration on young adults’ (N=48) recall of action-object instruction sequences (e.g. ‘spin the circle, tap the square’). Both manipulations improved recall, with demonstration providing relatively larger boosts to performance across conditions. More detailed analyses suggested that this improvement was driven by improving the representations of actions, rather than objects, in these action-object sequences. Experiment 2 (N=24) explored this further, removing the objects from the physical environment and comparing partial demonstration (i.e. action-only or object-only) with no or full demonstration. The results showed that partial demonstration only benefitted features that were demonstrated, while full demonstration improved memory for actions, objects and their pairings. Overall these experiments indicate how self-enactment, and particularly demonstration, can benefit verbal recall of instruction sequences through the engagement of visuo-motor processes that provide additional forms of coding to support working memory performance.</p

An integrated functional genomic study of acute phenobarbital exposure in the rat.

BACKGROUND: Non-genotoxic carcinogens are notoriously difficult to identify as they do not damage DNA directly and have diverse modes of action, necessitating long term in vivo studies. The early effects of the classic rodent non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogen phenobarbital have been investigated in the Fisher rat using a combination of metabolomics and transcriptomics, to investige early stage mechanistic changes that are predictive of longer term pathology. RESULTS: Liver and blood plasma were profiled across 14 days, and multivariate statistics used to identify perturbed pathways. Both metabolomics and transcriptomics detected changes in the liver which were dose dependent, even after one day of exposure. Integration of the two datasets associated perturbations with specific pathways. Hepatic glycogen was decreased due to a decrease in synthesis, and plasma triglycerides were decreased due to an increase in fatty acid uptake by the liver. Hepatic succinate was increased and this was associated with increased heme biosynthesis. Glutathione synthesis was also increased, presumably in response to oxidative stress. Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry demonstrated a remodeling of lipid species, possibly resulting from proliferation of the smooth endoplasmic reticulum. CONCLUSIONS: The data fusion of metabolomic and transcriptomic changes proved to be a highly sensitive approach for monitoring early stage changes in altered hepatic metabolism, oxidative stress and cytochrome P450 induction simultaneously. This approach is particularly useful in interpreting changes in metabolites such as succinate which are hubs of metabolism.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Profiling of the molecular weight and structural isomer abundance of macroalgae-derived phlorotannins

peer-reviewedPhlorotannins are a group of complex polymers of phloroglucinol (1,3,5-trihydroxybenzene) unique to macroalgae. These phenolic compounds are integral structural components of the cell wall in brown algae, but also play many secondary ecological roles such as protection from UV radiation and defense against grazing. This study employed Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography (UPLC) with tandem mass spectrometry to investigate isomeric complexity and observed differences in phlorotannins derived from macroalgae harvested off the Irish coast (Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, Himanthalia elongata and Cystoseira nodicaulis). Antioxidant activity and total phenolic content assays were used as an index for producing phlorotannin fractions, enriched using molecular weight cut-off dialysis with subsequent flash chromatography to profile phlorotannin isomers in these macroalgae. These fractions were profiled using UPLC-MS with multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) and the level of isomerization for specific molecular weight phlorotannins between 3 and 16 monomers were determined. The majority of the low molecular weight (LMW) phlorotannins were found to have a molecular weight range equivalent to 4-12 monomers of phloroglucinol. The level of isomerization within the individual macroalgal species differed, resulting in substantially different numbers of phlorotannin isomers for particular molecular weights. F. vesiculosus had the highest number of isomers of 61 at one specific molecular mass, corresponding to 12 phloroglucinol units (PGUs). These results highlight the complex nature of these extracts and emphasize the challenges involved in structural elucidation of these compounds.PUBLISHEDpeer-reviewe

Large-scale assessment of 7-11-year-olds’ cognitive and sensorimotor function within the Born in Bradford longitudinal birth cohort study

Background: Cognitive ability and sensorimotor function are crucial aspects of children’s development, and are associated with physical and mental health outcomes and educational attainment. This paper describes cross-sectional sensorimotor and cognitive function data collected on over 15,000 children aged 7-10 years, collected as part of the Born in Bradford (BiB) longitudinal birth-cohort study. Methodological details of the large-scale data collection process are described, along with initial analyses of the data involving the relationship between cognition/sensorimotor ability and age and task difficulty, and associations between tasks. Method: Data collection was completed in 86 schools between May 2016 and July 2019. Children were tested at school, individually, using a tablet computer with a digital stylus or finger touch for input. Assessments comprised a battery of three sensorimotor tasks (Tracking, Aiming, &amp; Steering) and five cognitive tasks (three Working Memory tasks, Inhibition, and Processing Speed), which took approximately 40 minutes. Results: Performance improved with increasing age and decreasing task difficulty, for each task. Performance on all three sensorimotor tasks was correlated, as was performance on the three working memory tasks. In addition, performance on a composite working memory score correlated with performance on both inhibition and processing speed. Interestingly, within age-group variation was much larger than between age-group variation. Conclusions: The current project collected computerised measures of a range of cognitive and sensorimotor functions at 7-10 years of age in over 15,000 children. Performance varied as expected by age and task difficulty, and showed the predicted correlations between related tasks. Large within-age group variation highlights the need to consider the profile of individual children in studying cognitive and sensorimotor development. These data can be linked to the wider BiB dataset including measures of physical and mental health, biomarkers and genome-wide data, socio-demographic information, and routine data from local health and education services.</p