Information Diffusion, Transaction Costs, and the Performance of Technical Trading Rules in the Emerging Stock Markets of China

School of Accounting and FinanceRefereed conference pape

Daily institutional trades and stock price volatility in a retail investor dominated emerging market

We examine the short-run dynamic relation between daily institutional trading and stock price volatility in a retail investor-dominated emerging market. We find a significantly negative relation between volatility and institutional net trading that is mainly due to the unexpected institutional trading. The price volatility-institutional trade relation differs for institutional buys and institutional sells, and for small and large stocks. Institutional investors herd-trade in large stocks, but do not systematically engage in positive-feedback trading. We argue that the net impact of informational and noninformational institutional trades determines the relation between volatility and institutional trading, and that the relation is negative when informational trading by institutions prevails.Volatility Institutional trade Information asymmetry Herding

Ownership Restriction, Information Diffusion Speed, and the Performance of Technical Trading Rules in Chinese Domestic and Foreign Shares Markets

We examine the performance of technical trading rules in Chinese domestic A-share and foreign B-share markets. After controlling for non-synchronous trading and transaction costs, we find evidence to support the predictability and profitability of some of the most popular technical trading rules for B-shares but not for A-shares. However, after February 19, 2001, when domestic investors were allowed to trade B-shares, the predictive power of the trading rules in B-share markets disappeared. We conjecture that the predictability of technical trading rules in B-share markets can be attributed to the gradual diffusion of information among foreign investors under the foreign share ownership restriction, and, partly, to positive autocorrelations induced by thin trading.Technical trading rules, ownership restriction, information diffusion, non-synchronous trading, transaction costs, JEL Classification: G12, JEL Classification: G14, JEL Classification: G15

Valuing IPOs Using Price-Earnings Multiples Disclosed by IPO Firms in an Emerging Capital Market

Existing studies show that markets use comparable firm multiples to price IPOs. This study explores IPO valuations in an emerging market where reliable comparable price multiples may not be readily available, or cannot be reliably identified. In particular, we examine the value relevance of price-earnings multiples disclosed by managers in IPO prospectuses in China. Using a sample of IPOs from 1992 to 2002, we find that price-earnings multiples disclosed by IPO firms provide significant power in explaining price formation in this emerging market. We also find that price-earnings multiples disclosed by IPO firms after 1999, when the China Securities and Regulatory Commission relaxed its internal guideline for approving IPO applications, are more informative. The results are robust to a variety of empirical model specifications. This study contributes to the existing IPO literature by showing that the disclosure of price-earnings multiples provides a mechanism for IPO firms to convey information about IPO firm quality when reliable comparable firm multiples may not exist.Valuation, IPOs, price-earnings multiples, G24

Valuing IPOs using price-earnings multiples disclosed by IPO firms in an emerging capital market

Existing studies show that markets use comparable firm multiples to price IPOs. This study explores IPO valuations in an emerging market where reliable comparable price multiples may not be readily available, or cannot be reliably identified. In particular, we examine the value relevance of price-earnings multiples disclosed by managers in IPO prospectuses in China. Using a sample of IPOs from 1992 to 2002, we find that price-earnings multiples disclosed by IPO firms provide significant power in explaining price formation in this emerging market. We also find that price-earnings multiples disclosed by IPO firms after 1999, when the China Securities and Regulatory Commission relaxed its internal guideline for approving IPO applications, are more informative. The results are robust to a variety of empirical model specifications. This study contributes to the existing IPO literature by showing that the disclosure of price-earnings multiples provides a mechanism for IPO firms to convey information about IPO firm quality when reliable comparable firm multiples may not exist

The dynamics of individual and institutional trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We investigate the daily dynamic relation between returns and institutional and individual trades in the emerging Chinese stock market. Consistent with the hypotheses of trend-chasing and attention-grabbing trading, we find that the response of individual trading to return shocks is much stronger than that of institutional trading, and individuals are net buyers following return shocks. Second, we find that past individual buys and sells have predictive power, whereas past institutional buys and sells have predictive power for market returns in longer horizons. However, both institutional and individual trading activities are more strongly related to past trades than past returns, and individual trading is also influenced by institutional trading. Moreover, we find that institutional trading in the largest quintile leads the trading in the smallest quintile, but no such lead-lag relation is found for individual trades. Finally, we find that the average cumulative abnormal trading volume of individuals is much larger than that of institutions around the firms' earnings announcement, suggesting that less-informed individual investors are more heavily influenced by firm-specific information disclosures and attention-grabbing events.Stock returns Institutional and individual trading Granger causality Emerging market