Dynamic forecasting model for short series age-specific mortality / Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan Husin

This thesis presents results of a research in developing a model to forecast mortality using a combination of existing demographic and time series models, specifically proposing a common factor model for forecasting Malaysia mortality using the available mortality data set. This research has been motivated by three (3) factors. Firstly, the need for a mortality forecasting model “tailored” to Malaysia data set which has been borne out of the scarcity of studies in forecasting Malaysia mortality, crucial to government pensions and social security as well as to practitioners in related fields. Secondly, over the last decades, different models for forecasting mortality have been used to produce mortality projections for different countries. However, no “universal” model, applicable to all countries, has been developed, more so for short-series historical mortality data. Hence, there is a need to develop and apply an appropriate model to produce good forecasts of Malaysia mortality. Thirdly, while undertaking a literature review to gain insights into current mortality forecasting models, it became apparent that a gap existed between the current models used for forecasting and projecting Malaysia mortality and the current practice of incorporating state-space methodology in mortality forecasting models, specifically in modelling high-dimensional short series mortality data. Hence, the research gap has to be narrowed. The first objective of this research is to establish a comprehensive literature review on modeling and forecasting mortality data.

Modelling Malaysian road accident deaths : an econometric approach / Wan Fairos Wan Yaacob and Wan Zakiyatussariroh Wan Husin

A number of methods have been proposed for dealing with road accident death model. This paper uses econometric regression models to develop the road accident death model. By using this approach, this paper attempts to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the total road accident deaths and a range ofexplanatory macroeconomic variables. The macroeconomic factors used in the model include population, the number of registered vehicles, road length, technique of data coverage, system of data recording and Gross Domestic Product. The results suggest that the POp, ROADL, VEH and DR do not have any impact on road accident deaths. In contrast, the GDP and Technique of data Coverage were found to be highly significant (P < 0.05) in explaining the road accident deaths

The Mediating Effect of Representativeness Heuristic on Neurofinance and SME's Financial Decision Making

Financial decision-making is a crucial part of business survival, especially among SMEs. About 95% of the business are facing failures within five-year time. The financial decision making failure happened due to psychology and behavioural. This research aims to determine the mediating effect of representativeness heuristic on emotions and financial decision making. A pre-test and post-test experiment analyzes emotions, financial decision-making, and representativeness heuristic behaviour. In pre-testing, emotions and financial decision-making questionnaires are measured using questionnaires distributed to forty-two SMEs. Then, the video clips with 12 to 16 minutes duration are used in manipulating the emotions from neutral emotion to positive and negative emotions. Lastly, in post-testing, the data are gathered by repeating answered emotion and financial decision-making questionnaires, followed by the representativeness heuristic questionnaire. The data were analysed using General Linear Regression. The results showed that representativeness heuristic is partially effect on negative emotion towards financial decision making. From the analysis, neuro-behavioural of financial decision-making model has been proposed. The proposed models are incorporating with the brain components and working memory. It shows that System 1 and System 2 of the dual-process theory are activated for negative and positive emotions

Forecasting using econometric approach (e-powtimesanalysis) / Norafefah Mohamad Sobri ...[et al.]

The objective of this study is to develop interactive learning multimedia of Powerpoint (POWTOON) in teaching and learning activities especially in reading subject. The study also aims to examine the effectiveness of power point in forecasting approach especially in econometric chapter. A total of 39 students from part 4 Diploma in Statistics , UiTM Cawangan Kelantan were selected as sample. The interactive learning multimedia of time series analysis course was successfully developed and named as ‘e-powtimesanalysis’. This ‘e-powtimesanalysis’ gives significant and valuable contributions to statistics educational practice and knowledge in the area of time series anaysis in the context of Malaysian Institution of Higher Learning. The findings also reveals that the students performance improved by 15.69% when teaching and learning process integrated the interactive approach. The implication of this study suggested that the ‘e-powtimesanalysis’ can be used to enhance the quality of teaching and learning process in statistics education and simultanoeusly increase the students’ performance in times series and forecasting subjec

Computer anxiety and skills: A survey amongst undergraduate student from rural areas in Malaysia

With the rapid growth of technology, nowadays people are using Information Communication Technology (ICT) as a tool in all aspects of life. Hence, competitiveness in ICT is increasing worldwide.Malaysia towards Vision 2020 has implemented many initiatives in ICT transformation for community including students from the rural areas.This research is conducted to investigate level of computer anxiety and skills amongst undergraduate students from rural areas in Malaysia.The study was done through distribution of 250 questionnaire samples to year one students from non-computing programs who are enrolled computer literacy subject at one of the private higher institutions in Negeri Sembilan and 128 responded.The results of the study show that the undergraduate students are not anxious using computer in their learning environment.The students also show good level of computer skills. These results are based on the student’s perception and the results also indicate that the students have built their computer skills since in lower level of education through the government initiatives

Caries-Free Prevalence among Schoolchildren in Malaysia—Time-Series Analysis of Trends and Projections from 1996 to 2030

This study assessed caries-free prevalence trends over two decades from 1996 to 2019 and projected the caries-free prevalence from 2020 to 2030 among schoolchildren in Malaysia. The study consisted of secondary data analysis of caries-free prevalence from 1996 to 2019 in six-, twelve- and sixteen-year-old schoolchildren obtained from Health Information Management System (HIMS) reports. Three time-series models were compared: double exponential smoothing (DES), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the error, trend and seasonal (ETS) model, and the best model with the smallest error was chosen for univariate projection of caries-free prevalence of each age group until 2030. An upward trend of caries-free prevalence was observed for all age groups over the years. Caries-free prevalence was projected to increase with a different increment in each age group for the next decade, with a slightly damped trend noted in 16-year-old schoolchildren. Of all the age groups, the caries-free prevalence trend and projection demonstrated to be highest in 12-year-olds, followed by 16-year-olds, while 6-year-old schoolchildren revealed the lowest caries-free prevalence over three decades. The 16-year-old schoolchildren demonstrated the smallest predicted increment in caries-free prevalence. Future work can explore multivariate projections. Meanwhile, more resources and interventions could prioritise all age groups

Comparative Performance Evaluation of Efficiency for High Dimensional Classification Methods

This paper aimed to determine the efficiency of classifiers for high-dimensional classification methods. It also investigated whether an extreme minimum misclassification rate translates into robust efficiency. To ensure an acceptable procedure, a benchmark evaluation threshold (BETH) was proposed as a metric to analyze the comparative performance for high-dimensional classification methods. A simplified performance metric was derived to show the efficiency of different classification methods. To achieve the objectives, the existing probability of correct classification (PCC) or classification accuracy reported in five different articles was used to generate the BETH value. Then, a comparative analysis was performed between the application of BETH value and the well-established PCC value ,derived from the confusion matrix. The analysis indicated that the BETH procedure had a minimum misclassification rate, unlike the Optimal method. The results also revealed that as the PCC inclined toward unity value, the misclassification rate between the two methods (BETH and PCC) became extremely irrelevant. The study revealed that the BETH method was invariant to the performance established by the classifiers using the PCC criterion but demonstrated more relevant aspects of robustness and minimum misclassification rate as compared to the PCC method. In addition, the comparative analysis affirmed that the BETH method exhibited more robust efficiency than the Optimal method. The study concluded that a minimum misclassification rate yields robust performance efficiency