An individualistic approach to institution formation in public good games

In a repeated public goods setting, we explore whether individuals, acting unilaterally, will provide an effective sanctioning institution. Subjects first choose unilaterally whether they will participate in a sanctioning stage that follows a contribution stage. Only those who gave themselves the “right” to punish can do so. We find that the effectiveness of the institution may not require provision of the institution at the level of the group. Individuals acting unilaterally are able to provide sanctioning institutions that effectively raise cooperation. The effectiveness of the institution, however, depends on whether the “right” to sanction entails a monetary cost or not

On Signatures of Atmospheric Features in Thermal Phase Curves of Hot Jupiters

Turbulence is ubiquitous in Solar System planetary atmospheres. In hot Jupiter atmospheres, the combination of moderately slow rotation and thick pressure scale height may result in dynamical weather structures with unusually large, planetary-size scales. Using equivalent-barotropic, turbulent circulation models, we illustrate how such structures can generate a variety of features in the thermal phase curves of hot Jupiters, including phase shifts and deviations from periodicity. Such features may have been spotted in the recent infrared phase curve of HD 189733b. Despite inherent difficulties with the interpretation of disk-integrated quantities, phase curves promise to offer unique constraints on the nature of the circulation regime present on hot Jupiters.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Ap

An Upper Limit on the Albedo of HD 209458b: Direct Imaging Photometry with the MOST Satellite

We present space-based photometry of the transiting exoplanetary system HD 209458 obtained with the MOST (Microvariablity and Oscillations of STars) satellite, spanning 14 days and covering 4 transits and 4 secondary eclipses. The HD 209458 photometry was obtained in MOST's lower-precision Direct Imaging mode, which is used for targets in the brightness range $6.5 < V < 13$. We describe the photometric reduction techniques for this mode of observing, in particular the corrections for stray Earthshine. We do not detect the secondary eclipse in the MOST data, to a limit in depth of 0.053 mmag (1 \sigma). We set a 1 \sigma upper limit on the planet-star flux ratio of 4.88 x 10^-5 corresponding to a geometric albedo upper limit in the MOST bandpass (400 to 700 nm) of 0.25. The corresponding numbers at the 3 \sigma level are 1.34 x 10^-4 and 0.68 respectively. HD 209458b is half as bright as Jupiter in the MOST bandpass. This low geometric albedo value is an important constraint for theoretical models of the HD209458b atmosphere, in particular ruling out the presence of reflective clouds. A second MOST campaign on HD 209458 is expected to be sensitive to an exoplanet albedo as low as 0.13 (1 sigma), if the star does not become more intrinsically variable in the meantime.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal (July 2006, v645n1

The Algorithmic Origins of Life

Although it has been notoriously difficult to pin down precisely what it is that makes life so distinctive and remarkable, there is general agreement that its informational aspect is one key property, perhaps the key property. The unique informational narrative of living systems suggests that life may be characterized by context-dependent causal influences, and in particular, that top-down (or downward) causation -- where higher-levels influence and constrain the dynamics of lower-levels in organizational hierarchies -- may be a major contributor to the hierarchal structure of living systems. Here we propose that the origin of life may correspond to a physical transition associated with a shift in causal structure, where information gains direct, and context-dependent causal efficacy over the matter it is instantiated in. Such a transition may be akin to more traditional physical transitions (e.g. thermodynamic phase transitions), with the crucial distinction that determining which phase (non-life or life) a given system is in requires dynamical information and therefore can only be inferred by identifying causal architecture. We discuss some potential novel research directions based on this hypothesis, including potential measures of such a transition that may be amenable to laboratory study, and how the proposed mechanism corresponds to the onset of the unique mode of (algorithmic) information processing characteristic of living systems.Comment: 13 pages, 1 tabl

Safety of inadvertent administration of live zoster vaccine to immunosuppressed individuals in a UK-based observational cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the safety of live attenuated varicella zoster vaccination when administered to immunosuppressed individuals. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: The study used anonymised data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), comprising a representative sample of routinely collected primary care data in England between 2013 and 2017 and and linked Hospital Episode Statistics data. PARTICIPANTS: 168 767 individuals age-eligible for varicella zoster vaccination registered at a general practice in England contributing data to CPRD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Electronic health records indicating immunosuppression, zoster vaccination, diagnoses of specific varicella-zoster virus (VZV)-related disease and non-specific rash/encephalitis compatible with VZV-related disease. RESULTS: Between 1 September 2013 and 31 August 2017, a period of immunosuppression was identified for 9093/168 767 (5.4%; 95% CI: 5.3%-5.5%) individuals age-eligible for zoster vaccination. The overall rate of vaccination while immunosuppressed was 1742/5251 (33.2 per 100 adjusted person years at risk; 95% CI: 31.9%-34.5%). Follow-up of the 1742 individuals who were inadvertently vaccinated while immunosuppressed identified only two cases of VZV-related disease within 8 weeks of vaccination (0.1%; 95% CI: 0.01%-0.4%), both primary care diagnoses of 'shingles', neither with a related hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Despite evidence of inadvertent vaccination of immunosuppressed individuals with live zoster vaccination, there is a lack of evidence of severe consequences including hospitalisation. This should reassure primary care staff and encourage vaccination of mildly immunosuppressed individuals who do not meet current thresholds for contraindication. These findings support a review of the extent to which live zoster vaccination is contraindicated among the immunosuppressed

Effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccination in an older United Kingdom population.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination against herpes zoster was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2013 for individuals aged 70 years, with a phased catch-up campaign for 71-79 year olds. Vaccine introduction has resulted in a marked fall in incident herpes zoster and in post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), but formal evaluation of vaccine effectiveness is needed. METHODS: In a population-based cohort study of older individuals born between 1933 and 1946, we used linked UK anonymised primary care health records for the first three years of the vaccination programme (01/09/2013-31/08/2016) and multivariable Poisson regression to obtain incidence rates and vaccine effectiveness (VE) against zoster and PHN. RESULTS: Among 516,547 individuals, 21% were vaccinated. Incidence of zoster was 3.15/1000 person-years in vaccinees and 8.80/1000 person-years in unvaccinated individuals. After adjustment, VE was 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) against incident zoster and 81% (95%CI = 61-91%) against PHN, with very similar VE estimates in the routine and catch-up cohorts. VE against zoster was lower in those with a previous history of zoster: 47% (95%CI = 31-58%) versus 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) in those without previous zoster. There was evidence of waning VE over time, from 69% (95%CI = 65-74%) in the first year after vaccination to 45% (95%CI = 29-57%) by the third year. CONCLUSION: This first formal assessment of VE in the UK zoster vaccination programme demonstrates good effectiveness of zoster vaccine, and very good protection against PHN. The findings provide evidence that VE is similar across the age groups targeted for vaccination in the UK, and on duration of protection of the vaccine in public health use. The study provides key information for decision-makers about the future direction of UK zoster vaccination programme, indicating that the live zoster vaccine may be more cost-effective than estimated previously. It also supports efforts to communicate the benefits of zoster vaccination to address the declining coverage observed across the UK

Mnt–Max to Myc–Max complex switching regulates cell cycle entry

The c-Myc oncoprotein is strongly induced during the G0 to S-phase transition and is an important regulator of cell cycle entry. In contrast to c-Myc, the putative Myc antagonist Mnt is maintained at a constant level during cell cycle entry. Mnt and Myc require interaction with Max for specific DNA binding at E-box sites, but have opposing transcriptional activities. Here, we show that c-Myc induction during cell cycle entry leads to a transient decrease in Mnt–Max complexes and a transient switch in the ratio of Mnt–Max to c-Myc–Max on shared target genes. Mnt overexpression suppressed cell cycle entry and cell proliferation, suggesting that the ratio of Mnt–Max to c-Myc–Max is critical for cell cycle entry. Furthermore, simultaneous Cre-Lox mediated deletion of Mnt and c-Myc in mouse embryo fibroblasts rescued the cell cycle entry and proliferative block caused by c-Myc ablation alone. These results demonstrate that Mnt-Myc antagonism plays a fundamental role in regulating cell cycle entry and proliferation

Impact of the national rotavirus vaccination programme on acute gastroenteritis in England and associated costs averted.

BACKGROUND: Introduction of infant oral rotavirus vaccination in the UK in July 2013 has resulted in decreased hospitalisations and Emergency Department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE), for both adults and children. We investigated reductions in AGE incidence seen in primary care in the two years after vaccine introduction, and estimated the healthcare costs averted across healthcare settings in the first year of the vaccination programme. METHODS: We used primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and age-stratified time-series analyses to derive adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRa) for AGE in the first two years of the post-vaccination era (July 2013-April 2015) compared to the pre-vaccination era (July 2008-June 2013). We estimated cases averted among children aged <5years in the first year of the vaccination programme by comparing observed numbers of AGE cases in 2013-2014 to numbers predicted from the time-series models. We then estimated the healthcare costs averted for general practice consultations, ED visits and hospitalisations. RESULTS: In general practice, AGE rates in infants (the target group for vaccination) decreased by 15% overall after vaccine introduction (IRRa=0.85; 95%CI=0.76-0.95), and by 41% in the months of historically high rotavirus circulation (IRRa=0.59; 95%CI=0.53-0.66). Rates also decreased in other young children and to a lesser degree in older individuals, indicating herd immunity. Across all three settings (general practice, EDs, and hospitalisations) an estimated 87,376 (95% prediction interval: 62,588-113,561) AGE visits by children aged <5years were averted in 2013-14, associated with an estimated £12.5million (9,209-16,198) reduction in healthcare costs. CONCLUSIONS: The marked decreases in the general practice AGE burden after rotavirus vaccine introduction mirror decreases seen in other UK healthcare settings. Overall, these decreases are associated with substantial averted healthcare costs

An individualistic approach to institution formation in public good games

In a repeated public goods setting, we explore whether individuals, acting unilaterally, will provide an effective sanctioning institution. Subjects first choose independently whether they will participate in a sanctioning stage that follows a contribution stage. Only those who gave themselves the “right” to sanction can do so. We find that the effectiveness of the institution may not require provision of the institution at the level of the group. Individuals acting unilaterally are able to provide sanctioning institutions that effectively raise cooperation. The effectiveness of the institution, however, depends on whether the “right” to sanction entails a monetary cost or not