Method-specific beliefs and subsequent contraceptive method choice: Results from a longitudinal study in urban and rural Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, including Kenya, shows that negative beliefs about contraceptive methods are associated with non-use. However, little is known about the relationship between contraceptive beliefs and subsequent method choice. METHODOLOGY: We used data from a two-year longitudinal survey of married women aged 15-39 years at enrollment from one urban site (Nairobi) and one rural site (Homa Bay) in Kenya. Analysis entails descriptive statistics and estimation of a conditional logit analysis to examine associations between method-specific beliefs and choice of injectables, implants or pills among women who were not using any method or were pregnant at baseline (round 1) but adopted these methods at 12-month follow-up (Nairobi, n = 221; Homa Bay n = 197). RESULTS: Beliefs about pills, injectables and implants among non-users were generally negative. With the partial exception of the pill in Nairobi, the majority thought that each method was likely to cause serious health problems, unpleasant side effects, menstrual disruption, and would be unsafe for long-term use. In both sites, satisfied past use of a method and the perception that a method is easy to use had a major influence on method choice. Concerns about menstrual disruption and safety for long-term use were unimportant in both sites. There were some marked differences between the two sites. Beliefs about long-term fertility impairment and perceived husband approval had strong influences on choice of injectables, implants or pills in the urban site but not in the rural site. CONCLUSION: The relative importance of beliefs, some erroneous, in predisposing women to choose one method over another appears to be conditioned by the social context. There is need for family planning counseling programmes to pay attention to erroneous beliefs and misconceptions about contraceptives

Adolescent Girls Initiative–Kenya: Endline evaluation report

Early pregnancy is a challenge for girls in Kenya that often has immediate effects on their educational opportunities, future implications for their social, health, and economic outcomes, and negative impacts on their children. For girls to achieve well-being in early and late adolescence, no single-sector intervention—whether education, health, wealth creation, or prevention of violence—will be adequate. The Adolescent Girls Initiative–Kenya (AGI-K) delivered multisectoral interventions to over 6,000 girls aged 11–15 in two marginalized areas of Kenya: the Kibera informal settlement in Nairobi and Wajir County in Northeastern Kenya. These interventions were carried out for two years (2015–17) and comprised a combination of girl-level, household-level, and community-level interventions. The two-year follow-up results largely confirmed the AGI-K theory of change and held up the view that an investment in early adolescents among the right groups of marginalized girls would have short-term benefits on asset accumulation, educational attainment, and household economic status that translated into longer-term impact on delaying childbearing. This report describes the intervention and research design of AGI-K, and presents the impact findings from the two-year follow-up data

Adolescent Girls Initiative–Kenya: Midline results report

Many adolescent girls in Kenya face considerable risks and vulnerabilities that affect their education status, health, and general well-being. In addition to low educational attainment and health risks, other factors that impact education and health outcomes include household poverty, lack of economic independence, limited income-earning opportunities, illiteracy, violence, and social isolation. Younger adolescent girls who live in environments laden with these vulnerabilities are at risk of experiencing negative outcomes such as school dropout, early sexual initiation, unintended pregnancy, early marriage, and sexual and gender-based violence. The Adolescent Girls Initiative–Kenya (AGI-K) delivered multisectoral interventions to over 6,000 girls aged 11–15 in two marginalized areas of Kenya: the Kibera informal settlement in Nairobi, and Wajir County in Northeastern Kenya. This report describes both the intervention and research design of AGI-K, and presents findings from the midline data collection. The objective of the RCT is to describe and compare the impact of the different program packages. Endline data will be collected in 2019 and will reflect the impact of the program packages two years post-intervention

Intimate partner violence against adolescents and young women in sub-Saharan Africa: who is most vulnerable?

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a global public health and human rights issue that affects millions of women and girls. While disaggregated national statistics are crucial to assess inequalities, little evidence exists on inequalities in exposure to violence against adolescents and young women (AYW). The aim of this study was to deter- mine inequalities in physical or sexual IPV against AYW and beliefs about gender based violence (GBV) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods: We used data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 27 countries in SSA. Only data from surveys conducted after 2010 were included. Our analysis focused on married or cohabiting AYW aged 15–24 years and compared inequalities in physical or sexual IPV by place of residence, education and wealth. We also examined IPV variations by AYW’s beliefs about GBV and the association of country characteristics such as gender inequality with IPV prevalence. Results: The proportion of AYW reporting IPV in the year before the survey ranged from 6.5% in Comoros to 43.3% in Gabon, with a median of 25.2%. Overall, reported IPV levels were higher in countries in the Central Africa region than other sub-regions. Although the prevalence of IPV varied by place of residence, education and wealth, there was no clear pattern of inequalities. In many countries with high prevalence of IPV, a higher proportion of AYW from rural areas, with lower education and from the poorest wealth quintile reported IPV. In almost all countries, a greater pro- portion of AYW who approved wife beating for any reason reported IPV compared to their counterparts who disap- proved wife beating. Reporting of IPV was weakly correlated with the Gender Inequality Index and other societal level variables but was moderately positively correlated with adult alcohol consumption (r = 0.48) and negative attitudes towards GBV (r = 0.38). Conclusion: IPV is pervasive among AYW, with substantial variation across and within countries reflecting the role of contextual and structural factors in shaping the vulnerability to IPV. The lack of consistent patterns of inequalities by the stratifiers within countries shows that IPV against women and girls cuts across socio-economic boundaries sug- gesting the need for comprehensive and multi-sectoral approaches to preventing and responding to IPV

Measuring the Prevalence of Mental Disorders in Adolescents in Kenya, Indonesia, and Vietnam: Study Protocol for the National Adolescent Mental Health Surveys

Purpose: In low- and middle-income countries, there are limited data on mental disorders among adolescents. To address this gap, the National Adolescent Mental Health Surveys (NAMHS) will provide nationally representative prevalence data of mental disorders among adolescents in Kenya, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This paper details the NAMHS study protocol. Methods: In each country, a multistage stratified cluster sampling design will be used. Participants will be eligible pairs of adolescents aged 10–17 years and their primary caregiver. Adolescents will be assessed for social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children, version 5. Demographics, risk and protective factors, and service use information will also be collected. In the parallel clinical calibration study, diagnoses of major depressive disorder, social phobia, and generalized anxiety disorder made using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children, version 5 will be calibrated against a diagnostic assessment by in-country clinicians in a separate sample. Results: Data collection for the national survey and clinical calibration study will commence in 2021, with dissemination of findings and methodology due to occur in 2022. Conclusions: Accurately quantifying the prevalence of mental disorders in adolescents is essential for service planning. NAMHS will address this lack of prevalence data, both within the NAMHS countries and within their respective regions, while establishing a gold-standard methodology for data collection on adolescent mental health in low- and middle-income countries. More broadly, NAMHS will encourage capacity building within each country by establishing linkages between researcher, clinician, government, and other networks

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030