Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Weakened magnetic braking as the origin of anomalously rapid rotation in old field stars

A knowledge of stellar ages is crucial for our understanding of many astrophysical phenomena, and yet ages can be difficult to determine. As they become older, stars lose mass and angular momentum, resulting in an observed slowdown in surface rotation. The technique of 'gyrochronology' uses the rotation period of a star to calculate its age. However, stars of known age must be used for calibration, and, until recently, the approach was untested for old stars (older than 1 gigayear, Gyr). Rotation periods are now known for stars in an open cluster of intermediate age (NGC 6819; 2.5 Gyr old), and for old field stars whose ages have been determined with asteroseismology. The data for the cluster agree with previous period-age relations, but these relations fail to describe the asteroseismic sample. Here we report stellar evolutionary modelling, and confirm the presence of unexpectedly rapid rotation in stars that are more evolved than the Sun. We demonstrate that models that incorporate dramatically weakened magnetic braking for old stars can---unlike existing models---reproduce both the asteroseismic and the cluster data. Our findings might suggest a fundamental change in the nature of ageing stellar dynamos, with the Sun being close to the critical transition to much weaker magnetized winds. This weakened braking limits the diagnostic power of gyrochronology for those stars that are more than halfway through their main-sequence lifetimes.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures in main paper, 6 extended data figures, 1 table. Published in Nature, January 2016. Please see https://youtu.be/O6HzYgP5uyc for a video description of the resul

Rising incidence of breast cancer among female cancer survivors: implications for surveillance

The number of female cancer survivors has been rising rapidly. We assessed the occurrence of breast cancer in these survivors over time. We computed incidence of primary breast cancer in two cohorts of female cancer survivors with a first diagnosis of cancer at ages 30+ in the periods 1975–1979 and 1990–1994. Cohorts were followed for 10 years through a population-based cancer registry. Over a period of 15 years, the incidence rate of breast cancer among female cancer survivors increased by 30% (age-standardised rate ratio (RR-adj): 1.30; 95% CI: 1.03–1.68). The increase was significant for non-breast cancer survivors (RR-adj: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.04–2.75). During the study period, the rate of second breast cancer stage II tripled (RR-adj: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.73–5.78). Non-breast cancer survivors had a significantly (P value=0.005) more unfavourable stage distribution (62% stage II and III) than breast cancer survivors (32% stage II and III). A marked rise in breast cancer incidence among female cancer survivors was observed. Research to optimise follow-up strategies for these women to detect breast cancer at an early stage is warranted

Outcome measurement in clinical trials for Ulcerative Colitis: towards standardisation

Clinical trials on novel drug therapies require clear criteria for patient selection and agreed definitions of disease remission. This principle has been successfully applied in the field of rheumatology where agreed disease scoring systems have allowed multi-centre collaborations and facilitated audit across treatment centres. Unfortunately in ulcerative colitis this consensus is lacking. Thirteen scoring systems have been developed but none have been properly validated. Most trials choose different endpoints and activity indices, making comparison of results from different trials extremely difficult. International consensus on endoscopic, clinical and histological scoring systems is essential as these are the key components used to determine entry criteria and outcome measurements in clinical trials on ulcerative colitis. With multiple new therapies under development, there is a pressing need for consensus to be reached

Barriers to Adopting and Implementing Local-Level Tobacco Control Policies

Although California communities have been relatively successful in adopting and implementing a wide range of local tobacco control policies, the process has not been without its setbacks and barriers. Little is known about local policy adoption, and this paper examines these processes related to adopting and implementing outdoor smoke-free policies, focusing on the major barriers faced by local-level tobacco control organizations in this process. Ninety-six projects funded by the California Tobacco Control Program submitted final evaluation reports pertaining to an outdoor smoking objective, and the reports from these projects were analyzed. The barriers were grouped in three primary areas: politically polarizing barriers, organizational barriers, and local political orientation. The barriers identified in this study underscore the need for an organized action plan in adopting local tobacco policy. The authors also suggest potential strategies to offset the barriers, including: (1) having a “champion” who helps to carry an objective forward; (2) tapping into a pool of youth volunteers; (3) collecting and using local data as a persuasive tool; (4) educating the community in smoke-free policy efforts; (5) working strategically within the local political climate; and (6) demonstrating to policymakers the constituent support for proposed policy

Phenotypic and genetic analysis of cognitive performance in Major Depressive Disorder in the Generation Scotland:Scottish Family Health Study

Abstract Lower performances in cognitive ability in individuals with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) have been observed on multiple occasions. Understanding cognitive performance in MDD could provide a wider insight in the aetiology of MDD as a whole. Using a large, well characterised cohort (N = 7012), we tested for: differences in cognitive performance by MDD status and a gene (single SNP or polygenic score) by MDD interaction effect on cognitive performance. Linear regression was used to assess the association between cognitive performance and MDD status in a case-control, single-episode–recurrent MDD and control-recurrent MDD study design. Test scores on verbal declarative memory, executive functioning, vocabulary, and processing speed were examined. Cognitive performance measures showing a significant difference between groups were subsequently analysed for genetic associations. Those with recurrent MDD have lower processing speed versus controls and single-episode MDD (β =  −2.44, p = 3.6 × 10−04; β =  -2.86, p = 1.8 × 10−03, respectively). There were significantly higher vocabulary scores in MDD cases versus controls (β = 0.79, p = 2.0 × 10−06), and for recurrent MDD versus controls (β = 0.95, p  = 5.8 × 10−05). Observed differences could not be linked to significant single-locus associations. Polygenic scores created from a processing speed meta-analysis GWAS explained 1% of variation in processing speed performance in the single-episode versus recurrent MDD study (p = 1.7 × 10−03) and 0.5% of variation in the control versus recurrent MDD study (p = 1.6 × 10−10). Individuals with recurrent MDD showed lower processing speed and executive function while showing higher vocabulary performance. Within MDD, persons with recurrent episodes show lower processing speed and executive function scores relative to individuals experiencing a single episode

Alcohol consumption and prostate cancer incidence and progression: A Mendelian randomisation study

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in developed countries, and is a target for risk reduction strategies. The effects of alcohol consumption on prostate cancer incidence and survival remain unclear, potentially due to methodological limitations of observational studies. In this study, we investigated the associations of genetic variants in alcohol-metabolising genes with prostate cancer incidence and survival. We analysed data from 23,868 men with prostate cancer and 23,051 controls from 25 studies within the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Study-specific associations of 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 8 alcohol-metabolising genes (Alcohol Dehydrogenases (ADHs) and Aldehyde Dehydrogenases (ALDHs)) with prostate cancer diagnosis and prostate cancer-specific mortality, by grade, were assessed using logistic and Cox regression models, respectively. The data across the 25 studies were meta-analysed using fixed-effect and random-effects models. We found little evidence that variants in alcohol metabolising genes were associated with prostate cancer diagnosis. Four variants in two genes exceeded the multiple testing threshold for associations with prostate cancer mortality in fixed-effect meta-analyses. SNPs within ALDH1A2 associated with prostate cancer mortality were rs1441817 (fixed effects hazard ratio, HRfixed  = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.66,0.91; p values = 0.002); rs12910509, HRfixed  = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.003); and rs8041922 (HRfixed  = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.002). These SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium with each other. In ALDH1B1, rs10973794 (HRfixed  = 1.43; 95%CI:1.14,1.79; p values = 0.002) was associated with prostate cancer mortality in men with low-grade prostate cancer. These results suggest that alcohol consumption is unlikely to affect prostate cancer incidence, but it may influence disease progression

Genome-wide association study implicates immune activation of multiple integrin genes in inflammatory bowel disease

Genetic association studies have identified 215 risk loci for inflammatory bowel disease, thereby uncovering fundamental aspects of its molecular biology. We performed a genome-wide association study of 25,305 individuals and conducted a meta-analysis with published summary statistics, yielding a total sample size of 59,957 subjects. We identified 25 new susceptibility loci, 3 of which contain integrin genes that encode proteins in pathways that have been identified as important therapeutic targets in inflammatory bowel disease. The associated variants are correlated with expression changes in response to immune stimulus at two of these genes ($\textit{ITGA4 }$ and $\textit{ITGB8}$) and at previously implicated loci ($\textit{ITGAL }$and $\textit{ICAM1}$). In all four cases, the expression-increasing allele also increases disease risk. We also identified likely causal missense variants in a gene implicated in primary immune deficiency, $\textit{PLCG2}$, and a negative regulator of inflammation, $\textit{SLAMF8}$. Our results demonstrate that new associations at common variants continue to identify genes relevant to therapeutic target identification and prioritization.This work was co-funded by the Wellcome Trust [098051] and the Medical Research Council, UK [MR/J00314X/1]. Case collections were supported by Crohn’s and Colitis UK. KMdL, LM, CAL, YL, DR, JG-A, NJP, CAA and JCB are supported by the Wellcome Trust [098051; 093885/Z/10/Z; 094491/Z/10/Z]. KMdL is supported by a Woolf Fisher Trust scholarship. CAL is a clinical lecturer funded by the NIHR. We thank Anna Stanton for co-ordinating the Guy’s and St Thomas’ patient recruitment. We acknowledge support from the Department of Health via the NIHR comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre awards to Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London and to Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge in partnership with the University of Cambridge. This research was also supported by the NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre. The UK Household Longitudinal Study is led by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council