Feller Processes: The Next Generation in Modeling. Brownian Motion, L\'evy Processes and Beyond

We present a simple construction method for Feller processes and a framework for the generation of sample paths of Feller processes. The construction is based on state space dependent mixing of L\'evy processes. Brownian Motion is one of the most frequently used continuous time Markov processes in applications. In recent years also L\'evy processes, of which Brownian Motion is a special case, have become increasingly popular. L\'evy processes are spatially homogeneous, but empirical data often suggest the use of spatially inhomogeneous processes. Thus it seems necessary to go to the next level of generalization: Feller processes. These include L\'evy processes and in particular Brownian motion as special cases but allow spatial inhomogeneities. Many properties of Feller processes are known, but proving the very existence is, in general, very technical. Moreover, an applicable framework for the generation of sample paths of a Feller process was missing. We explain, with practitioners in mind, how to overcome both of these obstacles. In particular our simulation technique allows to apply Monte Carlo methods to Feller processes.Comment: 22 pages, including 4 figures and 8 pages of source code for the generation of sample paths of Feller processe

Inter-rater reliability of data elements from a prototype of the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Registry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Registry (PCNASR) is a U.S. based national registry designed to monitor and improve the quality of acute stroke care delivered by hospitals. The registry monitors care through specific performance measures, the accuracy of which depends in part on the reliability of the individual data elements used to construct them. This study describes the inter-rater reliability of data elements collected in Michigan's state-based prototype of the PCNASR.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over a 6-month period, 15 hospitals participating in the Michigan PCNASR prototype submitted data on 2566 acute stroke admissions. Trained hospital staff prospectively identified acute stroke admissions, abstracted chart information, and submitted data to the registry. At each hospital 8 randomly selected cases were re-abstracted by an experienced research nurse. Inter-rater reliability was estimated by the kappa statistic for nominal variables, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for ordinal and continuous variables. Factors that can negatively impact the kappa statistic (i.e., trait prevalence and rater bias) were also evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 104 charts were available for re-abstraction. Excellent reliability (kappa or ICC > 0.75) was observed for many registry variables including age, gender, black race, hemorrhagic stroke, discharge medications, and modified Rankin Score. Agreement was at least moderate (i.e., 0.75 > kappa ≥; 0.40) for ischemic stroke, TIA, white race, non-ambulance arrival, hospital transfer and direct admit. However, several variables had poor reliability (kappa < 0.40) including stroke onset time, stroke team consultation, time of initial brain imaging, and discharge destination. There were marked systematic differences between hospital abstractors and the audit abstractor (i.e., rater bias) for many of the data elements recorded in the emergency department.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The excellent reliability of many of the data elements supports the use of the PCNASR to monitor and improve care. However, the poor reliability for several variables, particularly time-related events in the emergency department, indicates the need for concerted efforts to improve the quality of data collection. Specific recommendations include improvements to data definitions, abstractor training, and the development of ED-based real-time data collection systems.</p

Developing a digital intervention for cancer survivors: an evidence-, theory- and person-based approach

This paper illustrates a rigorous approach to developing digital interventions using an evidence-, theory- and person-based approach. Intervention planning included a rapid scoping review which identified cancer survivors’ needs, including barriers and facilitators to intervention success. Review evidence (N=49 papers) informed the intervention’s Guiding Principles, theory-based behavioural analysis and logic model. The intervention was optimised based on feedback on a prototype intervention through interviews (N=96) with cancer survivors and focus groups with NHS staff and cancer charity workers (N=31). Interviews with cancer survivors highlighted barriers to engagement, such as concerns about physical activity worsening fatigue. Focus groups highlighted concerns about support appointment length and how to support distressed participants. Feedback informed intervention modifications, to maximise acceptability, feasibility and likelihood of behaviour change. Our systematic method for understanding user views enabled us to anticipate and address important barriers to engagement. This methodology may be useful to others developing digital interventions

Arousal frequency is associated with increased fatigue in obstructive sleep apnea

Fatigue is an important and often underemphasized symptom in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Sleep fragmentation, i.e., arousals and disruptions in sleep architecture, is common in patients with OSA and may potentially contribute to their fatigue. We hypothesized that arousal frequency and changes in sleep architecture contribute to the fatigue experienced by patients with OSA. Seventy-three patients with diagnosed but untreated OSA (AHI ≥ 15) were enrolled in this study. A baseline polysomnogram was obtained, and fatigue was measured with the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory-short form (MFSI-sf). We evaluated the association between fatigue and arousals and various polysomongraphic variables, including sleep stages and sleep efficiency. Significant correlations between MFSI-sf subscale scores and various arousal indices were noted. Emotional fatigue scores were associated with total arousal index (r = 0.416, p = .021), respiratory movement arousal index (r = 0.346, p = .025), and spontaneous movement arousal index (r = 0.378, p = .025). Physical fatigue scores were associated with total arousal index (r = 0.360, p = .033) and respiratory movement arousal index (r = 0.304, p = .040). Percent of stage 1 sleep and REM sleep were also associated with physical and emotional fatigue scores. Hierarchal linear regression analysis demonstrated that emotional fatigue scores were independently associated with spontaneous movement arousals after controlling for age, body mass index, depression, and sleep apnea severity. These findings suggest that arousals may contribute to the fatigue seen in patients with OSA

Early Steps of HIV-1 Fusion Define the Sensitivity to Inhibitory Peptides That Block 6-Helix Bundle Formation

The HIV envelope (Env) glycoprotein mediates membrane fusion through sequential interactions with CD4 and coreceptors, followed by the refolding of the transmembrane gp41 subunit into the stable 6-helix bundle (6HB) conformation. Synthetic peptides derived from the gp41 C-terminal heptad repeat domain (C-peptides) potently inhibit fusion by binding to the gp41 pre-bundle intermediates and blocking their conversion into the 6HB. Our recent work revealed that HIV-1 enters cells by fusing with endosomes, but not with the plasma membrane. These studies also showed that, for the large part, gp41 pre-bundles progress toward 6HBs in endosomal compartments and are thus protected from external fusion inhibitors. Here, we examined the consequences of endocytic entry on the gp41 pre-bundle exposure and on the virus' sensitivity to C-peptides. The rates of CD4 and coreceptor binding, as well as the rate of productive receptor-mediated endocytosis, were measured by adding specific inhibitors of these steps at varied times of virus-cell incubation. Following the CD4 binding, CCR5-tropic viruses recruited a requisite number of coreceptors much faster than CXCR4-tropic viruses. The rate of subsequent uptake of ternary Env-CD4-coreceptor complexes did not correlate with the kinetics of coreceptor engagement. These measurements combined with kinetic analyses enabled the determination of the lifetime of pre-bundle intermediates on the cell surface. Overall, these lifetimes correlated with the inhibitory potency of C-peptides. On the other hand, the basal sensitivity to peptides varied considerably among diverse HIV-1 isolates and ranked similarly with their susceptibility to inactivation by soluble CD4. We conclude that both the longevity of gp41 intermediates and the extent of irreversible conformational changes in Env upon CD4 binding determine the antiviral potency of C-peptides

Comparing the Effects of Social Robots and Virtual Agents on Exercising Motivation

Schneider S, Kummert F. Comparing the Effects of Social Robots and Virtual Agents on Exercising Motivation. In: Social Robotics. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Vol 11357. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2018: 451-461

Impact of exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology: effect of error type in time-series studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO₂, NO_x, O₃, SO₂, CO, PM₁₀mass, PM_2.5mass, and PM_2.5components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling instrument imprecision and spatial variability as different error types, we estimate direction and magnitude of the effects of error over a range of error types.</p

Global quantitative indices reflecting provider process-of-care: data-base derivation

Background: Controversy has attended the relationship between risk-adjusted mortality and process-of-care. There would be advantage in the establishment, at the data-base level, of global quantitative indices subsuming the diversity of process-of-care. Methods: A retrospective, cohort study of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 1993-2003, at the level of geographic and ICU-level descriptors (n = 35), for both hospital survivors and non-survivors. Process-of-care indices were established by analysis of: (i) the smoothed time-hazard curve of individual patient discharge and determined by pharmaco-kinetic methods as area under the hazard-curve (AUC), reflecting the integrated experience of the discharge process, and time-to-peak-hazard (TMAX, in days), reflecting the time to maximum rate of hospital discharge; and (ii) individual patient ability to optimize output (as length-of-stay) for recorded data-base physiological inputs; estimated as a technical production-efficiency (TE, scaled [0,(maximum)1]), via the econometric technique of stochastic frontier analysis. For each descriptor, multivariate correlation-relationships between indices and summed mortality probability were determined. Results: The data-set consisted of 223129 patients from 99 ICUs with mean (SD) age and APACHE III score of 59.2(18.9) years and 52.7(30.6) respectively; 41.7% were female and 45.7% were mechanically ventilated within the first 24 hours post-admission. For survivors, AUC was maximal in rural and for-profit ICUs, whereas TMAX (≥ 7.8 days) and TE (≥ 0.74) were maximal in tertiary-ICUs. For non-survivors, AUC was maximal in tertiary-ICUs, but TMAX (≥ 4.2 days) and TE (≥ 0.69) were maximal in for-profit ICUs. Across descriptors, significant differences in indices were demonstrated (analysisof- variance, P ≤ 0.0001). Total explained variance, for survivors (0.89) and non-survivors (0.89), was maximized by combinations of indices demonstrating a low correlation with mortality probability. Conclusions: Global indices reflecting process of care may be formally established at the level of national patient databases. These indices appear orthogonal to mortality outcome.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomon and the Adult Database Management Committee (ADMC) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS

Ventilatory drive and the apnea-hypopnea index in six-to-twelve year old children

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that ventilatory drive in hypoxia and hypercapnia is inversely correlated with the number of hypopneas and obstructive apneas per hour of sleep (obstructive apnea hypopnea index, OAHI) in children. METHODS: Fifty children, 6 to 12 years of age were studied. Participants had an in-home unattended polysomnogram to compute the OAHI. We subsequently estimated ventilatory drive in normoxia, at two levels of isocapnic hypoxia, and at three levels of hyperoxic hypercapnia in each subject. Experiments were done during wakefulness, and the mouth occlusion pressure measured 0.1 seconds after inspiratory onset (P(0.1)) was measured in all conditions. The slope of the relation between P(0.1 )and the partial pressure of end-tidal O(2 )or CO(2 )(P(ET)O(2 )and P(ET)CO(2)) served as the index of hypoxic or hypercapnic ventilatory drive. RESULTS: Hypoxic ventilatory drive correlated inversely with OAHI (r = -0.31, P = 0.041), but the hypercapnic ventilatory drive did not (r = -0.19, P = 0.27). We also found that the resting P(ET)CO(2 )was significantly and positively correlated with the OAHI, suggesting that high OAHI values were associated with resting CO(2 )retention. CONCLUSIONS: In awake children the OAHI correlates inversely with the hypoxic ventilatory drive and positively with the resting P(ET)CO(2). Whether or not diminished hypoxic drive or resting CO(2 )retention while awake can explain the severity of sleep-disordered breathing in this population is uncertain, but a reduced hypoxic ventilatory drive and resting CO(2 )retention are associated with sleep-disordered breathing in 6–12 year old children