Herbivore population regulation and resource heterogeneity in a stochastic environment.

Large-mammal herbivore populations are subject to the interaction of internal density-dependent processes and external environmental stochasticity. We disentangle these processes by linking consumer population dynamics, in a highly stochastic environment, to the availability of their key forage resource via effects on body condition and subsequent fecundity and mortality rates. Body condition and demographic rate data were obtained by monitoring 500 tagged female goats in the Richtersveld National Park, South Africa, over a three-year period. Identifying the key resource and pathway to density dependence for a population allows environmental stochasticity to be partitioned into that which has strong feedbacks to population stability, and that which does not. Our data reveal a densitydependent seasonal decline in goat body condition in response to concomitant densitydependent depletion of the dry-season forage resource. The loss in body condition reduced density-dependent pregnancy rates, litter sizes, and pre-weaning survival. Survival was lowest following the most severe dry season and for juveniles. Adult survival in the late-dry season depended on body condition in the mid-dry season. Population growth was determined by the length of the dry season and the population size in the previous year. The RNP goat population is thereby dynamically coupled primarily to its dry-season forage resource. Extreme environmental variability thus does not decouple consumer resource dynamics, in contrast to the views of nonequilibrium protagonists

Determinants of flammability in savanna grass species

1. Tropical grasses fuel the majority of fires on Earth. In fire-prone landscapes, enhanced flammabil-ity may be adaptive for grasses via the maintenance of an open canopy and an increase in spa-tiotemporal opportunities for recruitment and regeneration. In addit ion, by burning intensely butbriefly, high flammability may protect resprouting buds from lethal temperatures. Despite thesepotential benefits of high flammability to fire-prone grasses, variation in flammability among grassspecies, and how trait differences underpin this variation, remains unknown.2. By burning leaves and plant parts, we experimentally determined how five plant traits (biomassquantity, biomass density, biomass moisture content, leaf surface-area-to-volume ratio and leaf effec-tive heat of combustion) combined to determine the three components of flammability (ignitability,sustainability and combustibility) at the leaf and plant scales in 25 grass species of fire-pr one SouthAfrican grasslands at a time of peak fire occurrence. The influence of evolutionary history onflammability was assessed based on a phylogeny built here for the study species.3. Grass speci es differed significantly in all components of flammability. Accounting for evolution-ary history helped to explain patterns in leaf-scale combustibility and sustainability. The five mea-sured plant traits predicted components of flammability, particularly leaf ignitability and plantcombustibility in which 70% and 58% of variation, respectively, could be explained by a combina-tion of the traits. Total above-ground biomass was a key drive r o f combustibility and sustainabi litywith high biomass species burning more intensely and for longer, and producing the highest pre-dicted fire spread rates. Moisture content was the main influence on ignitability, where speci es withhigher moisture conten ts took longer to ignite and once alight burnt at a slower rate. Bioma ss den-sity, leaf surface-area-to-volume ratio and leaf effective heat of combustion were weaker predictorsof flammability components.4. Synthesis. We demonstrate that grass flammability is predicted from easily measurable plant func-tional traits and is influenced by evolutionary history with some components showing phylogeneticsignal. Grasses are not homogenous fuels to fire. Rather, species differ in functional traits that inturn demonstrably influence flammability. This diver sity is consistent with the idea that flammabilitymay be an adaptive trait for grasses of fire-prone ecosystems

Is the evidence for dark energy secure?

Several kinds of astronomical observations, interpreted in the framework of the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology, have indicated that our universe is dominated by a Cosmological Constant. The dimming of distant Type Ia supernovae suggests that the expansion rate is accelerating, as if driven by vacuum energy, and this has been indirectly substantiated through studies of angular anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and of spatial correlations in the large-scale structure (LSS) of galaxies. However there is no compelling direct evidence yet for (the dynamical effects of) dark energy. The precision CMB data can be equally well fitted without dark energy if the spectrum of primordial density fluctuations is not quite scale-free and if the Hubble constant is lower globally than its locally measured value. The LSS data can also be satisfactorily fitted if there is a small component of hot dark matter, as would be provided by neutrinos of mass 0.5 eV. Although such an Einstein-de Sitter model cannot explain the SNe Ia Hubble diagram or the position of the `baryon acoustic oscillation' peak in the autocorrelation function of galaxies, it may be possible to do so e.g. in an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi cosmology where we are located in a void which is expanding faster than the average. Such alternatives may seem contrived but this must be weighed against our lack of any fundamental understanding of the inferred tiny energy scale of the dark energy. It may well be an artifact of an oversimplified cosmological model, rather than having physical reality.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures; to appear in a special issue of General Relativity and Gravitation, eds. G.F.R. Ellis et al; Changes: references reformatted in journal style - text unchange

Observational constraints on holographic dark energy with varying gravitational constant

We use observational data from Type Ia Supernovae (SN), Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and observational Hubble data (OHD), and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to constrain the cosmological scenario of holographic dark energy with varying gravitational constant. We consider both flat and non-flat background geometry, and we present the corresponding constraints and contour-plots of the model parameters. We conclude that the scenario is compatible with observations. In 1$\sigma$ we find $\Omega_{\Lambda0}=0.72^{+0.03}_{-0.03}$, $\Omega_{k0}=-0.0013^{+0.0130}_{-0.0040}$, $c=0.80^{+0.19}_{-0.14}$ and $\Delta_G\equiv G'/G=-0.0025^{+0.0080}_{-0.0050}$, while for the present value of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter we obtain $w_0=-1.04^{+0.15}_{-0.20}$.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, version published in JCA

Detection Limits for Super-Hubble Suppression of Causal Fluctuations

We investigate to what extent future microwave background experiments might be able to detect a suppression of fluctuation power on large scales in flat and open universe models. Such suppression would arise if fluctuations are generated by causal processes, and a measurement of a small suppression scale would be problematic for inflation models, but consistent with many defect models. More speculatively, a measurement of a suppression scale of the order of the present Hubble radius could provide independent evidence for a fine-tuned inflation model leading to a low-density universe. We find that, depending on the primordial power spectrum, a suppression scale modestly larger than the visible Horizon can be detected, but that the detectability drops very rapidly with increasing scale. For models with two periods of inflation, there is essentially no possibility of detecting a causal suppression scale.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, revtex, In Press Physical Review D 200

Atmosphere, ecology and evolution: what drove the Miocene expansion of C4 grasslands?

Grasses using the C4 photosynthetic pathway dominate today's savanna ecosystems and account for ∼20% of terrestrial carbon fixation. However, this dominant status was reached only recently, during a period of C4 grassland expansion in the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene (4–8 Myr ago). Declining atmospheric CO2 has long been considered the key driver of this event, but new geological evidence casts doubt on the idea, forcing a reconsideration of the environmental cues for C4 plant success.Here, I evaluate the current hypotheses and debate in this field, beginning with a discussion of the role of CO2 in the evolutionary origins, rather than expansion, of C4 grasses. Atmospheric CO2 starvation is a plausible selection agent for the C4 pathway, but a time gap of around 10 Myr remains between major decreases in CO2 during the Oligocene, and the earliest current evidence of C4 plants.An emerging ecological perspective explains the Miocene expansion of C4 grasslands via changes in climatic seasonality and the occurrence of fire. However, the climatic drivers of this event are debated and may vary among geographical regions.Uncertainty in these areas could be reduced significantly by new directions in ecological research, especially the discovery that grass species richness along rainfall gradients shows contrasting patterns in different C4 clades. By re-evaluating a published data set, I show that increasing seasonality of rainfall is linked to changes in the relative abundance of the major C4 grass clades Paniceae and Andropogoneae. I propose that the explicit inclusion of these ecological patterns would significantly strengthen climate change hypotheses of Miocene C4 grassland expansion. Critically, they allow a new series of testable predictions to be made about the fossil record.Synthesis. This paper offers a novel framework for integrating modern ecological patterns into theories about the geological history of C4 plants