Performance of Local Light Microscopy and the ParaScreen Pan/Pf Rapid Diagnostic Test to Detect Malaria in Health Centers in Northwest Ethiopia

Background: Diagnostic tests are recommended for suspected malaria cases before treatment, but comparative performance of microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) at rural health centers has rarely been studied compared to independent expert microscopy. Methods: Participants (N = 1997) with presumptive malaria were recruited from ten health centers with a range of transmission intensities in Amhara Regional State, Northwest Ethiopia during October to December 2007. Microscopy and ParaScreen Pan/PfH RDT were done immediately by health center technicians. Blood slides were re-examined later at a central laboratory by independent expert microscopists. Results: Of 1,997 febrile patients, 475 (23.8%) were positive by expert microscopists, with 57.7 % P.falciparum, 24.6 % P.vivax and 17.7 % mixed infections. Sensitivity of health center microscopists for any malaria species was.90 % in five health centers (four of which had the highest prevalence),.70 % in nine centers and 44 % in one site with lowest prevalence. Specificity for health center microscopy was very good (.95%) in all centers. For ParaScreen RDT, sensitivity was $90$70 % in six and,60 % in four centers. Specificity was $90 % in all centers except one where it was 85%. Conclusions: Health center microscopists performed well in nine of the ten health centers; while for ParaScreen RDT they performed well in only six centers. Overall the accuracy of local microscopy exceeded that of RDT for all outcomes. Thi

Evaluation of light microscopy and rapid diagnostic test for the detection of malaria under operational field conditions: a household survey in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In most resource-poor settings, malaria is usually diagnosed based on clinical signs and symptoms and not by detection of parasites in the blood using microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests (RDT). In population-based malaria surveys, accurate diagnosis is important: microscopy provides the gold standard, whilst RDTs allow immediate findings and treatment. The concordance between RDTs and microscopy in low or unstable transmission areas has not been evaluated. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of malaria parasites in randomly selected malarious areas of Amhara, Oromia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP) regions of Ethiopia, using microscopy and RDT, and to investigate the agreement between microscopy and RDT under field conditions. METHODS: A population-based survey was conducted in 224 randomly selected clusters of 25 households each in Amhara, Oromia and SNNP regions, between December 2006 and February 2007. Fingerpick blood samples from all persons living in even-numbered households were tested using two methods: light microscopy of Giemsa-stained blood slides; and RDT (ParaScreen device for Pan/Pf). RESULTS: A total of 13,960 people were eligible for malaria parasite testing of whom 11,504 (82%) were included in the analysis. Overall slide positivity rate was 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.4-5.0%) while ParaScreen RDT was positive in 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.1%) of those tested. Considering microscopy as the gold standard, ParaScreen RDT exhibited high specificity (98.5%; 95% CI 98.3-98.7) and moderate sensitivity (47.5%; 95% CI 42.8-52.2) with a positive predictive value of 56.8% (95% CI 51.7-61.9) and negative predictive value of 97.6% (95% CI 97.6-98.1%) under field conditions. CONCLUSION: Blood slide microscopy remains the preferred option for population-based prevalence surveys of malaria parasitaemia. The level of agreement between microscopy and RDT warrants further investigation in different transmission settings and in the clinical situation

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies

Association of community sanitation usage with soil-transmitted helminth infections among school-aged children in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Globally, in 2010, approximately 1.5 billion people were infected with at least one species of soil-transmitted helminth (STH), Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus). Infection occurs through ingestion or contact (hookworm) with eggs or larvae in the environment from fecal contamination. To control these infections, the World Health Organization recommends periodic mass treatment of at-risk populations with deworming drugs. Prevention of these infections typically relies on improved excreta containment and disposal. Most evidence of the relationship between sanitation and STH has focused on household-level access or usage, rather than community-level sanitation usage. We examined the association between the proportion of households in a community with latrines in use and prevalence of STH infections among school-aged children. METHODS: Data on STH prevalence and household latrine usage were obtained during four population-based, cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2011 and 2014 in Amhara, Ethiopia. Multilevel regression was used to estimate the association between the proportion of households in the community with latrines in use and presence of STH infection, indicated by > 0 eggs in stool samples from children 6-15 years old. RESULTS: Prevalence of STH infection was estimated as 22% (95% CI: 20-24%), 14% (95% CI: 13-16%), and 4% (95% CI: 4-5%) for hookworm, A. lumbricoides, and T. trichiura, respectively. Adjusting for individual, household, and community characteristics, hookworm prevalence was not associated with community sanitation usage. Trichuris trichuria prevalence was higher in communities with sanitation usage ≥ 60% versus sanitation usage < 20%. Association of community sanitation usage with A. lumbricoides prevalence depended on household sanitation. Community sanitation usage was not associated with A. lumbricoides prevalence among households with latrines in use. Among households without latrines in use, A. lumbricoides prevalence was higher comparing communities with sanitation usage ≥ 60% versus < 20%. Households with a latrine in use had lower prevalence of A. lumbricoides compared to households without latrines in use only in communities where sanitation usage was ≥ 80%. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of a protective association between community sanitation usage and STH infection. The relationship between STH infection and community sanitation usage may be complex and requires further study

Effectiveness of GenoType MTBDRsl in excluding TB drug resistance in a clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of the GenoType MTBDRsl v1, a line-probe assay (LPA), to exclude baseline resistance to fluoroquinolones (FQs) and second-line injectables (SLIs) in the Standard Treatment Regimen of Anti-tuberculosis Drugs for Patients With MDR-TB 1 (STREAM 1) trial. METHODS: Direct sputum MTBDRsl results in the site laboratories were compared to indirect phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (pDST) results in the central laboratory, with DNA sequencing as a reference standard. RESULTS: Of 413 multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients tested using MTBDRsl and pDST, 389 (94.2%) were FQ-susceptible and 7 (1.7%) FQ-resistant, while 17 (4.1%) had an inconclusive MTBDRsl result. For SLI, 372 (90.1%) were susceptible, 5 (1.2%) resistant and 36 (8.7%) inconclusive. There were 9 (2.3%) FQ discordant pDST/MTBDRsl results, of which 3 revealed a mutation and 5 (1.3%) SLI discordant pDST/MTBDRsl results, none of which were mutants on sequencing. Among the 17 FQ- and SLI MTBDRsl-inconclusive samples, sequencing showed 1 FQ- and zero SLI-resistant results, similar to frequencies among the conclusive MTBDRsl. The majority of inconclusive MTBDRsl results were associated with low bacillary load samples (acid-fast bacilli smear-negative or scantily positive) compared to conclusive results (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: MTBDRsl can facilitate the rapid exclusion of FQ and SLI resistances for enrolment in clinical trials

Spatio-temporal land use/cover dynamics and its implication for sustainable land use in Wanka watershed, northwestern highlands of Ethiopia

Long-term land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics information is essential to understand the trends and make necessary land management interventions, such as in the highlands of Ethiopia. This study analyzed six decades of LULC dynamics of Wanka watershed, Northwestern Ethiopian highlands. Two sets of aerial photographs (1957 and 2017), SPOT 5 and sentinel satellite imageries were analyzed. In addition, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and field observations were used to identify the drivers and impact of LULC change. It was found that cultivated and rural settlement land (CRSL), bare land, and urban built up area have been continuously expanded at the expenses of mainly forest and shrub lands. Over the entire study period (1957–2017) while the bare land and CRSL have increased by about 59% and 20% respectively, forest and shrub lands have declined by 59% and 57% respectively. Urban built up area has also expanded. The impact of popula- tion pressure and expansion of CRSL land were considerable. The trend of LULC dynamics in the study watershed implies adverse impact on the quality and quantity of the land resource. Hence, appropriate land use planning and strategies that reduce expansion of cultivated land need to be practiced

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019