Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables. Revised version; accepted for publication in Geoscientific Model Development on 13 February 201

Anisakis sensitization in different population groups and public health impact. A systematic review

Anisakis simplex spp. sensitization rates have increased worldwide, with a significant impact on health-care systems. To date, no clear-cut diagnostic criteria and laboratory algorithm have been established, so anisakiasis still represents an under-reported health problem whose clinical manifestations, when present, mimic the much more common allergic and digestive disorders. Aim of the study was to systematically review the available literature on the prevalence of sensitization against Anisakis in the general population and in specific population groups, taking into account the impact of the different available diagnostic techniques on the epidemiological data. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, relevant papers reporting Anisakis sensitization epidemiological data were found covering a period ranging from 1996 to February 2017. Overall, 41 studies comprising 31,701 participants from eleven countries were included in the qualitative synthesis. General asymptomatic population resulted sensitized to Anisakis in 0.4 to 27.4% of cases detected by means of indirect ELISA or ImmunoCAP specific IgE detection, and between 6.6% and 19.6% of the samples by Skin prick test (SPT). Occupationally exposed workers (fishermen, fishmongers and workers of fish-processing industries) documented specific IgE between 11.7% and 50% of cases, whereas SPT positivity ranged between 8% and 46.4%. Symptomatic allergic patients to any kind of allergen were found to be positive to Anisakis specific IgE detection between 0.0% (in children with mastocytosis) to 81.3% (among adults with shellfish allergy). Results highlighted that hypersensitivity prevalence estimates varied widely according to geographical area, characteristics of the population studied, diagnostic criteria and laboratory assays. Further studies are needed to overcome the documented misdiagnosis by improving the diagnostic approach and, consequently, providing more affordable estimates in order to address public health interventions on populations at high risk of exposure to Anisakis and to tailor health services related to specific groups

Methodological issues in a cross-sectional survey on cervical cancer screening using telephone interviews in Sicily (Italy): a SWOT analysis

Objective: A cross-sectional study on knowledge, perceptions, and adherence to cervical cancer screening was conducted using telephone interviews of Sicilian women that were performed in 2016. This study aimed to identify areas that need to be addressed to improve the validity of data collection and to minimize possible biases. Methods: We performed a qualitative study through SWOT analysis, which is a multidimensional method based on evaluation of Strengths (S), Weaknesses (W), Opportunities (O), and Threats (T) of the research project. The contents of the SWOT forms underwent categorical, inductive, and deductive data analysis using the long table analysis method. Results: The full availability of an updated address and phone number list was the main organizational aspect to be addressed. Socio-cultural context played a major role for understanding the questions and for acceptability of the topics. In some cases, a family member was a facilitating element, while in others, the family member hindered the interviews. Active involvement of general practitioners was considered essential for success of the interviews. Conclusions: When performing a cross-sectional survey, organizational aspects and active involvement of general practitioners are crucial in the enrolment phase, regardless of the socio-cultural context

Anisotropy and chemical composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays using arrival directions measured by the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Collaboration has reported evidence for anisotropy in the distribution of arrival directions of the cosmic rays with energies $E>E_{th}=5.5\times 10^{19}$ eV. These show a correlation with the distribution of nearby extragalactic objects, including an apparent excess around the direction of Centaurus A. If the particles responsible for these excesses at $E>E_{th}$ are heavy nuclei with charge $Z$, the proton component of the sources should lead to excesses in the same regions at energies $E/Z$. We here report the lack of anisotropies in these directions at energies above $E_{th}/Z$ (for illustrative values of $Z=6,\ 13,\ 26$). If the anisotropies above $E_{th}$ are due to nuclei with charge $Z$, and under reasonable assumptions about the acceleration process, these observations imply stringent constraints on the allowed proton fraction at the lower energies

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{$6\times 10^{19}$eV}. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than $3.1^\circ$ from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron $12^{\rm th}$ catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is $(38^{+7}_{-6})$, compared with $21$ expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of $(69^{+11}_{-13})$. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201

The Fluorescence Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a hybrid detector for ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It combines a surface array to measure secondary particles at ground level together with a fluorescence detector to measure the development of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The fluorescence detector comprises 24 large telescopes specialized for measuring the nitrogen fluorescence caused by charged particles of cosmic ray air showers. In this paper we describe the components of the fluorescence detector including its optical system, the design of the camera, the electronics, and the systems for relative and absolute calibration. We also discuss the operation and the monitoring of the detector. Finally, we evaluate the detector performance and precision of shower reconstructions.Comment: 53 pages. Submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section

Advanced functionality for radio analysis in the Offline software framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The advent of the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) necessitates the development of a powerful framework for the analysis of radio measurements of cosmic ray air showers. As AERA performs "radio-hybrid" measurements of air shower radio emission in coincidence with the surface particle detectors and fluorescence telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the radio analysis functionality had to be incorporated in the existing hybrid analysis solutions for fluoresence and surface detector data. This goal has been achieved in a natural way by extending the existing Auger Offline software framework with radio functionality. In this article, we lay out the design, highlights and features of the radio extension implemented in the Auger Offline framework. Its functionality has achieved a high degree of sophistication and offers advanced features such as vectorial reconstruction of the electric field, advanced signal processing algorithms, a transparent and efficient handling of FFTs, a very detailed simulation of detector effects, and the read-in of multiple data formats including data from various radio simulation codes. The source code of this radio functionality can be made available to interested parties on request.Comment: accepted for publication in NIM A, 13 pages, minor corrections to author list and references in v

Search for First Harmonic Modulation in the Right Ascension Distribution of Cosmic Rays Detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We present the results of searches for dipolar-type anisotropies in different energy ranges above $2.5\times 10^{17}$ eV with the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, reporting on both the phase and the amplitude measurements of the first harmonic modulation in the right-ascension distribution. Upper limits on the amplitudes are obtained, which provide the most stringent bounds at present, being below 2% at 99% $C.L.$ for EeV energies. We also compare our results to those of previous experiments as well as with some theoretical expectations.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figure

Megaíleo chagásico: Descrição de um caso

É apresentado um caso de megaíleo de natureza chagásica. O paciente, portador da Doença de Chagas, branco com 41 anos, apresentava história de 3 anos de episódios de eólicas abdominais, distensão e diarréia, que foram se tornando mais intensas e mais freqüentes. Fora das crises, apresentava-se assintomático. O diagnóstico de megaíleo foi estabelecido por meio do estudo radiológico contrastado do intestino delgado. O estudo histológico realizado em fragmento obtido à intervenção cirúrgica mostrou diminuição do número de células ganglionares dos plexos mientéricos