Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

Initialization techniques for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions fall into two main categories; namely full-field initialization (FFI) and anomaly initialization (AI). In the FFI case the initial model state is replaced by the best possible available estimate of the real state. By doing so the initial error is efficiently reduced but, due to the unavoidable presence of model deficiencies, once the model is let free to run a prediction, its trajectory drifts away from the observations no matter how small the initial error is. This problem is partly overcome with AI where the aim is to forecast future anomalies by assimilating observed anomalies on an estimate of the model climate. The large variety of experimental setups, models and observational networks adopted worldwide make it difficult to draw firm conclusions on the respective advantages and drawbacks of FFI and AI, or to identify distinctive lines for improvement. The lack of a unified mathematical framework adds an additional difficulty toward the design of adequate initialization strategies that fit the desired forecast horizon, observational network and model at hand. Here we compare FFI and AI using a low-order climate model of nine ordinary differential equations and use the notation and concepts of data assimilation theory to highlight their error scaling properties. This analysis suggests better performances using FFI when a good observational network is available and reveals the direct relation of its skill with the observational accuracy. The skill of AI appears, however, mostly related to the model quality and clear increases of skill can only be expected in coincidence with model upgrades. We have compared FFI and AI in experiments in which either the full system or the atmosphere and ocean were independently initialized. In the former case FFI shows better and longer-lasting improvements, with skillful predictions until month 30. In the initialization of single compartments, the best performance is obtained when the stabler component of the model (the ocean) is initialized, but with FFI it is possible to have some predictive skill even when the most unstable compartment (the extratropical atmosphere) is observed. Two advanced formulations, least-square initialization (LSI) and exploring parameter uncertainty (EPU), are introduced. Using LSI the initialization makes use of model statistics to propagate information from observation locations to the entire model domain. Numerical results show that LSI improves the performance of FFI in all the situations when only a portion of the system's state is observed. EPU is an online drift correction method in which the drift caused by the parametric error is estimated using a short-time evolution law and is then removed during the forecast run. Its implementation in conjunction with FFI allows us to improve the prediction skill within the first forecast year. Finally, the application of these results in the context of realistic climate models is discussed

Manganese-56 coincidence-counting facility precisely measures neutron-source strength

Precise measurement of neutron-source strength is provided by a manganese 56 coincidence-counting facility using the manganese-bath technique. This facility combines nuclear instrumentation with coincidence-counting techniques to handle a wide variety of radioisotope-counting requirements

Simulated synchrotron and Inverse Compton emission from Pulsar Wind Nebulae

We present a complete set of diagnostic tools aimed at reproducing synthetic non-thermal (synchrotron and/or Inverse Compton, IC) emissivity, integrated flux energy, polarization and spectral index simulated maps in comparison to observations. The time dependent relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (RMHD) equations are solved with a shock capturing code together with the evolution of the maximum particles energy. Applications to Pulsar Wind Nebulae (PWNe) are shown.Comment: 3 pages, 7 figures, proceeding of the conference "40 Years of Pulsars ", 12-17 August 2007, Montreal, Canada, submitted to AI

The pgip family in soybean and three other legume species: evidence for a birth-and-death model of evolution

Polygalacturonase-inhibiting proteins (PGIPs) are leucine-rich repeat (LRR) plant cell wall glycoproteins involved in plant immunity. They are typically encoded by gene families with a small number of gene copies whose evolutionary origin has been poorly investigated. Here we report the complete characterization of the full complement of the pgip family in soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) and the characterization of the genomic region surrounding the pgip family in four legume species. Results: BAC clone and genome sequence analyses showed that the soybean genome contains two pgip loci. Each locus is composed of three clustered genes that are induced following infection with the fungal pathogen Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib.) de Bary, and remnant sequences of pgip genes. The analyzed homeologous soybean genomic regions (about 126 Kb) that include the pgip loci are strongly conserved and this conservation extends also to the genomes of the legume species Phaseolus vulgaris L., Medicago truncatula Gaertn. and Cicer arietinum L., each containing a single pgip locus. Maximum likelihood-based gene trees suggest that the genes within the pgip clusters have independently undergone tandem duplication in each species. Conclusions: The paleopolyploid soybean genome contains two pgip loci comprised in large and highly conserved duplicated regions, which are also conserved in bean, M. truncatula and C. arietinum. The genomic features of these legume pgip families suggest that the forces driving the evolution of pgip genes follow the birth-and-death model, similar to that proposed for the evolution of resistance (R) genes of NBS-LRR-type

Current management of herpes zoster: The European view

The overall incidence of herpes zoster in Europe is approximately 3 per 1000 people per year and more than 10 per 1000 people per year in those aged >80 years. Post herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is a common debilitating complication of herpes zoster, particularly in patients aged >50 years, in persons with severe pain or rash at presentation, and in those with significant prodromal symptoms. Antiviral drugs can effectively control acute symptoms and, if used early enough in the course of the illness, can help prevent the development of PHN and other complications. However, despite this, many patients do not receive such treatment. The economic impact of zoster and PHN is largely underestimated in Europe. Furthermore, there is considerable variation throughout Europe in the management of herpes zoster. Use of antiviral therapy including the newer potent antiviral agents such as brivudin, which requires less frequent administration than acyclovir, is improving patient outcomes in some European countries. However, in many countries, patient awareness of herpes zoster and, as a result, overall antiviral use is low. Guidelines recommending the use of antiviral agents, particularly in patients at risk of developing PHN, are available but are not widely used. More needs to be done to educate the general public and increase awareness among primary healthcare providers of the benefits of timely and appropriate pharmacological therapy in patients with herpes zoster. © 2005 Adis Data Information BV. All rights reserved

Public awareness and knowledge of herpes labialis

Between 20% and 40% of the population is estimated to suffer from episodes of recurrent herpes labialis, although few reports in the literature have addressed the public awareness of this infection in the general population. The aims of this study were to determine the existing level of awareness and knowledge of this disease and to assess the source of this knowledge, the ability of the public to recognize the characteristics of the disease and the behavior of patients with clinical cases of disease manifestation. To this end, 2,000 individuals (961 male and 1,039 female) of 14 years of age and older were surveyed using the ECOcapi system [Eurisko Consumer Omnibus-CAPI (computer-assisted personal interviewing) version]. Eighty-nine percent of those surveyed had some knowledge of herpes labialis; 92% were able to refer to at least one symptom of herpes labialis, 91% were able to identify correctly his infection from pictures, and 45% had experienced personally at least one episode of herpes labialis infection. The majority of the individuals suffering from herpes labialis self-medicated using a topical therapy. Women were found to be affected more commonly by herpes labialis than men [OR 1.42 (1.18-1.70)], and women were also more likely to recognize the disease [OR 1.65 (1.30-2.08)] and to seek medical advice for the condition [OR 1.38 (1.12-1.70)]. In conclusion, herpes labialis is a common and well-known condition, and it is often self-diagnosed correctly, as the prodromal phase and the use of self-medication are very common. J. Med. Virol. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Influence of the salinity adjustment methods, salts and brine, on the toxicity of wastewater samples to mussels embryos

One of the main problems of the Whole Effluent Toxicity is related to the use of bioindicator species representative of the target environment. Most wastewater discharges are of fresh water, so their salinity has to be adjusted when they are discharged to transitional and marine coastal waters, in order to perform toxicity bioassays with reliable organisms. At the moment, there is no optimum technique to allow sample salinity to be adjusted and no specific information regarding salinity adjustment when bivalves are being considered for toxicity test performance. This paper provides information on the potential use of different methods to adjust the salinity of hotel/domestic wastewater samples with different brands of natural and synthetic Dry Salts (DS) and HyperSaline Brine (HSB) for use in the embryo larval development bioassay with the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. HyperSaline Brine derived from reconstructed artificial seawater proved to be more viable for wastewater salinity adjustment than DS

Semi-supervised Learning based on Distributionally Robust Optimization

We propose a novel method for semi-supervised learning (SSL) based on data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) using optimal transport metrics. Our proposed method enhances generalization error by using the unlabeled data to restrict the support of the worst case distribution in our DRO formulation. We enable the implementation of our DRO formulation by proposing a stochastic gradient descent algorithm which allows to easily implement the training procedure. We demonstrate that our Semi-supervised DRO method is able to improve the generalization error over natural supervised procedures and state-of-the-art SSL estimators. Finally, we include a discussion on the large sample behavior of the optimal uncertainty region in the DRO formulation. Our discussion exposes important aspects such as the role of dimension reduction in SSL

Multifractal analysis of radar rainfall fields over the area of Rome

A scale-invariance analysis of space and time rainfall events monitored by meteorological radar over the area of Rome (Italy) is proposed. The study of the scale-invariance properties of intense precipitation storms, particularly important in flood forecast and risk mitigation, allows to transfer rainfall information from the large scale predictive meteorological models to the small scale hydrological rainfall-runoff models. <P style=&quot;line-height: 20px;&quot;> Precipitation events are monitored using data collected by the polarimetric Doppler radar Polar 55C (ISAC-CNR), located 15 km Southeast from downtown. The meteorological radar provides the estimates of rainfall intensity over an area of about 10 000 km² at a resolution of 2&times;2 km² in space and 5 min in time. <P style=&quot;line-height: 20px;&quot;> Many precipitation events have been observed from autumn 2001 up to now. A scale-invariance analysis is performed on some of these events with the aim at exploring the multifractal properties and at understanding their dependence on the meteorological large-scale conditions

Molecular vibration in cold collision theory

Cold collisions of ground state oxygen molecules with Helium have been investigated in a wide range of cold collision energies (from 1 $\mu$K up to 10 K) treating the oxygen molecule first as a rigid rotor and then introducing the vibrational degree of freedom. The comparison between the two models shows that at low energies the rigid rotor approximation is very accurate and able to describe all the dynamical features of the system. The comparison between the two models has also been extended to cases where the interaction potential He - O$_2$ is made artificially stronger. In this case vibration can perturb rate constants, but fine-tuning the rigid rotor potential can alleviate the discrepancies between the two models.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure