Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Feasibility of sedation and analgesia interruption following cannulation in neonates on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Purpose: In most extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) centers patients are heavily sedated to prevent accidental decannulation and bleeding complications. In ventilated adults not on ECMO, daily sedation interruption protocols improve short- and long-term outcome. This study aims to evaluate safety and feasibility of sedation interruption following cannulation in neonates on ECMO. Methods: Prospective observational study in 20 neonates (0.17-5.8 days of age) admitted for ECMO treatment. Midazolam (n = 20) and morphine (n = 18) infusions were discontinued within 30 min after cannulation. Pain and sedation were regularly assessed using COMFORT-B and visual analog scale (VAS) scores. Midazolam and/or morphine were restarted and titrated according to protocolized treatment algorithms. Results: Median (interquartile range, IQR) time without any sedatives was 10.3 h (5.0-24.1 h). Median interruption duration for midazolam was 16.5 h (6.6-29.6 h), and for morphine was 11.2 h (6.7-39.4 h). During this period no accidental extubations, decannulations or bleeding complications occurred. Conclusions: This is the first study to show that interruption of sedatives and analgesics following cannulation in neonates on ECMO is safe and feasible. Interruption times are 2-3 times longer than reported for adult ICU patients not on ECMO. Further trials are needed to substantiate these findings and evaluate short- and long-term outcomes

Dynamic compartmentalization of bacteria: accurate division in E. coli

Positioning of the midcell division plane within the bacterium E. coli is controlled by the min system of proteins: MinC, MinD and MinE. These proteins coherently oscillate from end to end of the bacterium. We present a reaction--diffusion model describing the diffusion of min proteins along the bacterium and their transfer between the cytoplasmic membrane and cytoplasm. Our model spontaneously generates protein oscillations in good agreement with experiments. We explore the oscillation stability, frequency and wavelength as a function of protein concentration and bacterial length.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, Latex2e, Revtex

Daily interruption of sedation in critically ill children:study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: In adult patients who are critically ill and mechanically ventilated, daily interruption of sedation (DSI) is an effective method of improving sedation management, resulting in a decrease of the duration of mechanical ventilation, the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and the length of stay in the hospital. It is a safe and effective approach and is common practice in adult ICUs. For critically ill children it is unknown if DSI is effective and feasible. The aim of this multicenter randomized controlled trial is to evaluate the safety and efficacy of daily sedation interruption in critically ill children. METHODS/DESIGN: Children between 0 and 18 years of age who require mechanical ventilation, with an expected duration of at least 48 h and need for sedative infusion, will be included. After enrollment patients will be randomly assigned to DSI in combination with protocolized sedation (intervention group) or protocolized continuous sedation (control group). A sedation protocol that contains an algorithm for increasing and weaning of sedatives and analgesics will be used. The sedative infusion will be restarted if the patient becomes uncomfortable or agitated according to the sedation protocol. The primary endpoint is the number of ventilator-free days at 28 days. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NTR203

A questionnaire to identify patellofemoral pain in the community: an exploration of measurement properties

Background Community-based studies of patellofemoral pain (PFP) need a questionnaire tool that discriminates between those with and those without the condition. To overcome these issues, we have designed a self-report questionnaire which aims to identify people with PFP in the community. Methods Study designs: comparative study and cross-sectional study. Study population: comparative study: PFP patients, soft-tissue injury patients and adults without knee problems. Cross-sectional study: adults attending a science festival. Intervention: comparative study participants completed the questionnaire at baseline and two weeks later. Cross-sectional study participants completed the questionnaire once. The optimal scoring system and threshold was explored using receiver operating characteristic curves, test-retest reliability using Cohen’s kappa and measurement error using Bland-Altman plots and standard error of measurement. Known-group validity was explored by comparing PFP prevalence between genders and age groups. Results Eighty-four participants were recruited to the comparative study. The receiver operating characteristic curves suggested limiting the questionnaire to the clinical features and knee pain map sections (AUC 0.97 95 % CI 0.94 to 1.00). This combination had high sensitivity and specificity (over 90 %). Measurement error was less than the mean difference between the groups. Test–retest reliability estimates suggest good agreement (N = 51, k = 0.74, 95 % CI 0.52–0.91). The cross-sectional study (N = 110) showed expected differences between genders and age groups but these were not statistically significant. Conclusion A shortened version of the questionnaire, based on clinical features and a knee pain map, has good measurement properties. Further work is needed to validate the questionnaire in community samples

Predicting CYP3A-mediated midazolam metabolism in critically ill neonates, infants, children and adults with inflammation and organ failure.

Aims: Inflammation and organ failure have been reported to have an impact on cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A-mediated clearance of midazolam in critically ill children. Our aim was to evaluate a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model both in critically ill children and other populations, in order to allow the model to be used to guide dosing in clinical practice. Methods: The model was evaluated externally in 136 individuals, including (pre)term neonates, infants, children and adults (body weight 0.77–90 kg, C-reactive protein level 0.1–341 mg l–1 and 0–4 failing organs) using graphical and numerical diagnostics. Results: The pharmacokinetic model predicted midazolam clearance and plasma concentrations without bias in postoperative or critically ill paediatric patients and term neonates [median prediction error (MPE) 180%). Conclusion: The recently published pharmacokinetic model for midazolam, quantifying the influence of maturation, inflammation and organ failure in children, yields unbiased clearance predictions and can therefore be used for dosing instructions in term neonates, children and adults with varying levels of critical illness, including healthy adults, but not for extrapolation to preterm neonates

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in Indonesia: a population-based study in three regions

Cervical cancer is the most common cancer among women in the Indonesian population, yet little is known about the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV). We investigated age-specific prevalence of HPV types and possible risk factors of HPV positivity in a population-based sample of 2686 women, aged 15–70 years, in Jakarta, Tasikmalaya, and Bali, Indonesia. The overall HPV prevalence was 11.4%, age-standardized to the world standard population 11.6%. The most prevalent types found were HPV 52, HPV 16, HPV 18, and HPV 39, respectively, 23.2, 18.0, 16.1, and 11.8% of the high-risk HPV types. In 20.7% of infections, multiple types were involved. Different age-specific prevalence patterns were seen: overall high in Jakarta, and in Tasikmalaya, and declining with age in Bali. The number of marriages was most associated with HPV positivity (OR 1.81 95% CI 1.31–2.51)). Remarkably, in Indonesia HPV 16 and HPV 18 are equally common in the general population, as they are in cervical cancer. HPV 52 was the most prevalent type in the general population, suggesting that this type should be included when prophylactic HPV vaccination is introduced in Indonesia

Does inter-vertebral range of motion increase after spinal manipulation? A prospective cohort study.

Background: Spinal manipulation for nonspecific neck pain is thought to work in part by improving inter-vertebral range of motion (IV-RoM), but it is difficult to measure this or determine whether it is related to clinical outcomes. Objectives: This study undertook to determine whether cervical spine flexion and extension IV-RoM increases after a course of spinal manipulation, to explore relationships between any IV-RoM increases and clinical outcomes and to compare palpation with objective measurement in the detection of hypo-mobile segments. Method: Thirty patients with nonspecific neck pain and 30 healthy controls matched for age and gender received quantitative fluoroscopy (QF) screenings to measure flexion and extension IV-RoM (C1-C6) at baseline and 4-week follow-up between September 2012-13. Patients received up to 12 neck manipulations and completed NRS, NDI and Euroqol 5D-5L at baseline, plus PGIC and satisfaction questionnaires at follow-up. IV-RoM accuracy, repeatability and hypo-mobility cut-offs were determined. Minimal detectable changes (MDC) over 4 weeks were calculated from controls. Patients and control IV-RoMs were compared at baseline as well as changes in patients over 4 weeks. Correlations between outcomes and the number of manipulations received and the agreement (Kappa) between palpated and QF-detected of hypo-mobile segments were calculated. Results: QF had high accuracy (worst RMS error 0.5o) and repeatability (highest SEM 1.1o, lowest ICC 0.90) for IV-RoM measurement. Hypo-mobility cut offs ranged from 0.8o to 3.5o. No outcome was significantly correlated with increased IV-RoM above MDC and there was no significant difference between the number of hypo-mobile segments in patients and controls at baseline or significant increases in IV-RoMs in patients. However, there was a modest and significant correlation between the number of manipulations received and the number of levels and directions whose IV-RoM increased beyond MDC (Rho=0.39, p=0.043). There was also no agreement between palpation and QF in identifying hypo-mobile segments (Kappa 0.04-0.06). Conclusions: This study found no differences in cervical sagittal IV-RoM between patients with non-specific neck pain and matched controls. There was a modest dose-response relationship between the number of manipulations given and number of levels increasing IV-RoM - providing evidence that neck manipulation has a mechanical effect at segmental levels. However, patient-reported outcomes were not related to this