Estimating Returns to Education in Off-Farm Activities in Rural Ethiopia.

I use an extended version of Mincer's original model to estimate the returns to schooling in rural Ethiopia. In a first step, a multinomial logit model is applied to distinguish between four groups of people, (1) full-time farmers, (2) part-time farmers, part time wage workers, (3) part-time farmers, part time traders and (4) full-time non-farmers. In a second step, a correction for sample selectivity is made using the Lee-Heckman method and the returns are estimated. The results show that returns on schooling are high in group (4) and lower in groups (2) and (3). Entry in well-paid jobs is constrained for non educated people. Women are particularly well represented in the third group but strongly underrepresented in the fourth group. The estimation shows that education is a worthwile investment in rural Ethiopia and the fact that households underinvest in education can be attributed to the lack of resources at the household level.

Agricultural Policy, Crop Failure and the 'Ruriganiza' Famine (1989) in Southern Rwanda: a Prelude to Genocide ?

The paper analyses the agricultural policy of the Habyarimana regime, which ruled Rwanda from 1973 to 1994. Econometric analysis of rural household survey data is used to investigate the effects of the 1989 crop failure in southern Rwanda on children’s health status. The paper shows that children in southern Rwanda are chronically malnourished, more then in other prefectures of Rwanda. It is shown that the 1989 crop failure developed into famine and the causes of this development are investigated. It turns out that the Habyarimana regime did not respond to early warnings of famine conditions and pretend it did not know what was going on. The relationship between this non-response to famine, agricultural policy in general and the 1994 genocide is demonstrated.agriculture, famine, survey research, Rwanda

A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi

This paper challenges the idea that farmers revert to subsistence farming when confronted with violence from civil war. Macro-economic evidence on economic legacies of civil war suggests that civil wars, while obviously disastrous in the short run, do not need to have persistent effects on long term economic outcomes. New micro-level studies are ambiguous about the impact of civil war for welfare. Several studies find long lasting negative effects, particularly through reduced human capital formation while others for example report increased participation in collective action programs and the emergence of local institutions. We investigate to what extend individual incentives for investments are affected by civil war. Using several rounds of (panel) data at the farm and community level, we find that farmers in Burundi who are confronted with civil war violence in their home communities increase export and cash crop growing activities, invest more in public goods, and reveal higher levels of subjective welfare evaluations. We interpret this in the light of similar recent micro-level evidence that points to post-traumatic growth effects after (civil) war fare. Our results are confirmed across specifications as well as in robustness analyses

Additions to the Bryophyte Flora of the Neotropics

New and remarkable records of bryophytes from Venezuela, Brazil, Costa Rica and Ecuador are reported. Diphyscium chiapense and Hedwigia ciliata var. leucophaea are new to South America. New to Venezuela are Grimmia reflexidens, Metzgeria claviflora, Pilopogon peruvianus and Racomitrium subsecundum; Grimmia navicularis and G. trichophylla are firstly reported for Brazil; Aphanolejeunea microscopica var. africana, A. minuta, A. sintenisii, Cololejeunea bischleriana, Metalejeunea cucullata, and Hyophila nymaniana represent new records for Costa Rica, and new to Ecuador are Diphyscium longifolium, Erpodium beccarii, Macrocolura sagittistipula, and (for continental Ecuador) Marchantia berteroana. Further new records to the states of that countries and rarely collected species are listed. All specimens are deposited in the private herbaria of the authors, duplicates in different herbaria as indicated

Rebel Recruitment in a Coffee Exporting Economy

Recent literature in the political economy of civil war has pointed to the importance of (changes) in the economic environment for the understanding of conflict dynamics. Three channels, negative income shocks, the presence of exportable commodities and indiscriminate violence inflicted on one’s community are considered as drivers of conflict. This paper studies these channels with a new fifteen-year panel of community level data on Burundi whose coffee sector is intimately intertwined with the civil war. We find that indiscriminate violence inflicted at the start of the civil war (1993) continued to affect recruitment throughout the entire civil war. We also find that decreases in the producer price of coffee increases recruitment. Aiming to distinguish the resentment aspect from the opportunity aspect in low producer prices, we perform robustness tests with different specifications and with year-province rainfall shocks affecting overall agricultural income, not just coffee. Results indicate that it is the opportunity cost mechanism that drives increased recruitment.Civil war, recruitment, indiscriminate violence, coffee, rainfall

Poverty Dynamics, Violent Conflict and Convergence in Rwanda

Civil war and genocide in the 1990-2000 period in Rwanda - a small, landlocked, densely populated country in Central Africa - have had differential economic impacts on the country’s provinces. The reasons for this are the death toll of the genocide, the location of battles, the waves of migration and the local resurgence of war. As a result, the labour/land and labour/capital ratios at the provincial level changed considerably during that period. Using two cross-sections, we find empirical evidence for convergence between provinces following the conflict shocks: previously richer provinces in the east and in the north of the country experienced lower, even negative, economic growth compared to the poorer western and southern provinces. This has in turn affected significantly the dynamics of household poverty in Rwanda in the same period. Using a small but unique panel of households surveyed before and after the conflict period, we find that households whose house was destroyed or who lost land ran a higher risk of falling into poverty. This was particularly the case for households who were land-rich before the genocide. We do not find this for the loss of household labour. In the latter case the effect depends on the violent or non-violent character of the loss.Conflict, poverty, Africa, panel data

A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi

This paper challenges the idea that farmers revert to subsistence farming when confronted with violence from civil war. While there is an emerging macroeconomic consensus that wars are detrimental to development, we find contrasting microeconomic evidence. Using several rounds of (panel) data at the farm and community level, we find that farmers in Burundi who are confronted with civil war violence in their home communities increase export and cash crop growing activities, invest more in public goods and reveal higher levels subjective welfare evaluations. We interpret this in the light of similar recent micro-level evidence that points to post-traumatic growth effects after (civil) warfare. Our results are confirmed across specifications as well as in robustness analyses.Civil war, investment, post-traumatic growth

Consumption Growth, Household Splits and Civil War

We analyse the effect of civil war on household welfare. Using Burundian panel data for the 1998-2007 period in which we re-interviewed original as well as newly formed households (split-offs), we show that headcount poverty decreased by 3.5 % points when split-off households are taken into account and 1% when splits are left out. Poverty is persistent while prosperity is not, in particular in war-affected areas. We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 13%. We also find that violence afflicted on household members decreases growth whereas membership of rebel groups increases it. Apart from such war-related effects - and controlling for initial levels of consumption - we find that temporarily famine-induced migration and illness decrease growth while good harvests, more split-offs and higher initial levels of education increase it. Good harvests are found to have persistent positive effects on growth. Our results are robust for different household and province fixed effects specifications.Consumption, Growth, Split-off households, Civil war, Panel data, Africa

The demographic and socio-economic distribution of excess mortality during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda

There is an extensive literature on violent conflicts such as the 1994 Rwandan genocide, but few papers examine the profiles of victims and perpetrators, or more broadly the micro-level dynamics of widespread violence. This paper studies the demographic consequences of the Rwandan genocide and how the excess mortality due to the conflict was distributed in the population. Data collected by the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey indicate that although there were more deaths across the entire population, adult males were the most likely to die. Using the characteristics of the survey respondent as a proxy for the socio-economic status of the family dead, the results also show that individuals with an urban or more educated background were more likely to die. Over and above the human tragedies, a long-term cost of the genocide is the country's loss of productive skills.Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Demographics,,Adolescent Health