An evaluation of the actual incidence of tuberculosis in French Guiana using a capture-recapture model

In order to estimate the level of under-reporting and to improve estimates of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the vicinity of Cayenne, French Guiana, we performed capture-recapture analysis from 1996 through 2003. We cross-linked data from the Institut Pasteur, the Département d'Information Médicale of Cayenne Hospital, and the Service de Lutte Anti-Tuberculeuse. The estimate of 381 TB cases obtained after matching those three sources was revised to 425 (95% confidence interval: 407, 453) using the capture-recapture model based on sample coverage. The corresponding average annual incidence was 63.1 TB cases per 100,000 population. The evaluated sensitivity of the compulsory notification system was 35.3%, indicating wide under-notification of TB in the vicinity of Cayenne. The estimated coverage reported by the three sources was fairly accurate (i.e. 85.9%), but not sufficient to evaluate the risk of transmission of TB in the Ile-de-Cayenne (Cayenne and its suburbs). © 2006 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved

Use of cluster-graphs from spoligotyping data to study genotype similarities and a comparison of three indices to quantify recent tuberculosis transmission among culture positive cases in French Guiana during a eight year period

Background: French Guiana has the highest tuberculosis (TB) burden among all French departments, with a strong increase in the TB incidence over the last few years. It is now uncertain how best to explain this incidence. The objective of this study was to compare three different methods evaluating the extent of recent TB transmission in French Guiana. Methods: We conducted a population-based molecular epidemiology study of tuberculosis in French Guiana based on culture-positive TB strains (1996 to 2003, n = 344) to define molecular relatedness between isolates, i.e. potential transmission events. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred by comparing two methods: a "cluster-graph" method based on spoligotyping results, and a minimum spanning tree method based on both spoligotyping and variable number of tandem DNA repeats (VNTR). Furthermore, three indices attempting to reflect the extent of recent TB transmission (RTIn, RTIn-1 and TMI) were compared. Results: Molecular analyses showed a total amount of 120 different spoligotyping patterns and 273 clinical isolates (79.4%) that were grouped in 49 clusters. The comparison of spoligotypes from French Guiana with an international spoligotype database (SpolDB4) showed that the majority of isolates belonged to major clades of M. tuberculosis (Haarlem, 22.6%; Latin American-Mediterranean, 23.3%; and T, 32.6%). Indices designed to quantify transmission of tuberculosis gave the following values: RTIn = 0.794, RTIn-1 = 0.651, and TMI = 0.146. Conclusion: Our data showed a high number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis clusters, suggesting a high level of recent TB transmission, nonetheless an estimation of transmission rate taking into account cluster size and mutation rate of genetic markers showed a low ongoing transmission rate (14.6%). Our results indicate an endemic mode of TB transmission in French Guiana, with both resurgence of old spatially restricted genotypes, and a significant importation of new TB genotypes by migration of TB infected persons from neighgouring high-incidence countries. © 2008 Guernier et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Globalization of human infectious disease

Globalization has facilitated the spread of numerous infectious agents to all corners of the planet. Analysis of the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) database quantitatively illustrates that the globalization of human infectious agents depends significantly on the range of hosts used. Infectious agents specific to humans are broadly and uniformly distributed, whereas zoonotic infectious agents are far more localized in their geographical distribution. Moreover, these patterns vary depending on transmission mode and infectious agent taxonomy. This dichotomy is unlikely to persist if certain aspects of globalization (for example, exotic species introductions) continue unabated. This raises a serious concern for public health and leaves nations with the task of determining the infectious agents that have the greatest potential to establish within their borders. At the advent of a century characterized by an apparent increase in emerging infectious diseases, these results have critical implications for public-health policy and future research pathways of infectious disease ecology. © 2007 by the Ecological Society of America

Long-term population-based genotyping study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates in the French departments of the Americas

The three French overseas departments of the Americas are characterized both by insular (Guadeloupe and Martinique) and continental (French Guiana) settings with a tuberculosis case detection rate that varies from less than 10 per 100,000 per year in insular areas to an estimated incidence of more than 55 per 100,000 in French Guiana. Under a long-term genotyping program, more than three-fourths of all the Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates (n = 744) received from the three settings were fingerprinted over a 10-year period (1994 to 2003) by spoligotyping and variable number of tandem DNA repeats (VNTRs) in order to understand the current trends in their detection rates, drug resistance, and groups and subpopulations at risk of contracting the disease and to pinpoint the circulating phylogeographical clades of the bacilli. The major difference in the study populations was the nationality of the patients, with a high percentage of immigrants from high-incidence neighboring countries in French Guiana and a low but increasing percentage in the French Caribbean. The rate of recent transmission was calculated to be 49.3% in French Guiana, compared to 27.2% and 16.9% in Guadeloupe and Martinique, respectively. At the phylogeographic level, 77.9% of the isolates studied belonged to four major clades (Haarlem, Latin-American and Mediterranean, T, and X) which are already reported from neighboring Caribbean islands in an international database and may underline potential interregional transmission events. Copyright © 2006, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved

Estimating Chikungunya prevalence in La Réunion Island outbreak by serosurveys: Two methods for two critical times of the epidemic

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused a major two-wave seventeen-month-long outbreak in La Réunion Island in 2005-2006. The aim of this study was to refine clinical estimates provided by a regional surveillance-system using a two-stage serological assessment as gold standard. Methods: Two serosurveys were implemented: first, a rapid survey using stored sera of pregnant women, in order to assess the attack rate at the epidemic upsurge (s1, February 2006; n = 888); second, a population-based survey among a random sample of the community, to assess the herd immunity in the post-epidemic era (s2, October 2006; n = 2442). Sera were screened for anti-CHIKV specific antibodies (IgM and IgG in s1, IgG only in s2) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Seroprevalence rates were compared to clinical estimates of attack rates. Results: In s1, 18.2% of the pregnant women were tested positive for CHIKV specific antibodies (13.8% for both IgM and IgG, 4.3% for IgM, 0.1% for IgG only) which provided a congruent estimate with the 16.5% attack rate calculated from the surveillance-system. In s2, the seroprevalence in community was estimated to 38.2% (95% CI, 35.9 to 40.6%). Extrapolations of seroprevalence rates led to estimate, at 143,000 and at 300,000 (95% CI, 283,000 to 320,000), the number of people infected in s1 and in s2, respectively. In comparison, the surveillance-system estimated at 130,000 and 266,000 the number of people infected for the same periods. Conclusion: A rapid serosurvey in pregnant women can be helpful to assess the attack rate when large seroprevalence studies cannot be done. On the other hand, a population-based serosurvey is useful to refine the estimate when clinical diagnosis underestimates it. Our findings give valuable insights to assess the herd immunity along the course of epidemics. © 2008 Gérardin et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd