Rank-based Bayesian clustering via covariate-informed Mallows mixtures

Data in the form of rankings, ratings, pair comparisons or clicks are frequently collected in diverse fields, from marketing to politics, to understand assessors' individual preferences. Combining such preference data with features associated with the assessors can lead to a better understanding of the assessors' behaviors and choices. The Mallows model is a popular model for rankings, as it flexibly adapts to different types of preference data, and the previously proposed Bayesian Mallows Model (BMM) offers a computationally efficient framework for Bayesian inference, also allowing capturing the users' heterogeneity via a finite mixture. We develop a Bayesian Mallows-based finite mixture model that performs clustering while also accounting for assessor-related features, called the Bayesian Mallows model with covariates (BMMx). BMMx is based on a similarity function that a priori favours the aggregation of assessors into a cluster when their covariates are similar, using the Product Partition models (PPMx) proposal. We present two approaches to measure the covariate similarity: one based on a novel deterministic function measuring the covariates' goodness-of-fit to the cluster, and one based on an augmented model as in PPMx. We investigate the performance of BMMx in both simulation experiments and real-data examples, showing the method's potential for advancing the understanding of assessor preferences and behaviors in different applications

A dynamic weighted RBF-based ensemble for prediction of time series data from nuclear components

International audienceIn this paper, an ensemble approach is proposed for prediction of time series data based on a Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm with RBF loss function. We propose a strategy to build diverse sub-models of the ensemble based on the Feature Vector Selection (FVS) method of Baudat & Anouar (2003), which decreases the computational burden and keeps the generalization performance of the model. A simple but effective strategy is used to calculate the weights of each data point for different sub-models built with RBF-SVR. A real case study on a power production component is presented. Comparisons with results given by the best single SVR model and a fixed-weights ensemble prove the robustness and accuracy of the proposed ensemble approach

Probabilistic Support Vector Regression for Short-Term Prediction of Power Plants Equipment

International audienceA short-term forecasting approach is proposed for the purposes of condition monitoring. The proposed approach builds on the Probabilistic Support Vector Regression (PSVR) method. The tuning of the PSVR hyerparameters, the model identification and the uncertainty analysis are conducted via novel and innovative strategies. A case study is shown, regarding the prediction of a drifting process parameter of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) component

AN EFFICIENT ONLINE LEARNING APPROACH FOR SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION

International audienceIn this paper, an efficient online learning approach is proposed for Support Vector Regression (SVR) by combining Feature Vector Selection (FVS) and incremental learning. FVS is used to reduce the size of the training data set and serves as model update criterion. Incremental learning can "adiabatically" add a new Feature Vector (FV) in the model, while retaining the Kuhn-Tucker conditions. The proposed approach can be applied for both online training & learning and offline training & online learning. The results on a real case study concerning data for anomaly prediction in a component of a power generation system show the satisfactory performance and efficiency of this learning paradigm

NSGA-II-trained neural network approach to the estimation of prediction intervals of scale deposition rate in oil & gas equipment

International audienceScale deposition can damage equipment in the oil & gas production industry. Hence, the reliable and accurate prediction of the scale deposition rate is critical for production availability. In this study, we consider the problem of predicting the scale deposition rate, providing an indication of the associated prediction uncertainty. We tackle the problem using an empirical modeling approach, based on experimental data. Specifically, we implement a multi-objective genetic algorithm (namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II)) to train a neural network (NN) (i.e. to find its parameters, that is its weights and biases) to provide the prediction intervals (PIs) of the scale deposition rate. The PIs are optimized both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and dimension (width). We perform k-fold cross-validation to guide the choice of the NN structure (i.e. the number of hidden neurons). We use hypervolume indicator metric to evaluate the Pareto fronts in the validation step. A case study is considered, with regards to a set of experimental observations: the NSGA-II-trained neural network is shown capable of providing PIs with both high coverage and small width

A BAYESIAN MALLOWS APPROACH TO NONTRANSITIVE PAIR COMPARISON DATA : HOW HUMAN ARE SOUNDS?

We are interested in learning how listeners perceive sounds as having human origins. An experiment was performed with a series of electronically synthesized sounds, and listeners were asked to compare them in pairs. We propose a Bayesian probabilistic method to learn individual preferences from nontransitive pairwise comparison data, as happens when one (or more) individual preferences in the data contradicts what is implied by the others. We build a Bayesian Mallows model in order to handle nontransitive data, with a latent layer of uncertainty which captures the generation of preference misreporting. We then develop a mixture extension of the Mallows model, able to learn individual preferences in a heterogeneous population. The results of our analysis of the musicology experiment are of interest to electroacoustic composers and sound designers, and to the audio industry in general, whose aim is to understand how computer generated sounds can be produced in order to sound more human.Peer reviewe