38 research outputs found
Reemergence of dengue in Cuba: a 1997 epidemic in Santiago de Cuba.
After 15 years of absence, dengue reemerged in the municipality of Santiago de Cuba because of increasing migration to the area by people from disease-endemic regions, a high level of vector infestation, and the breakdown of eradication measures. The 1997 epidemic was detected early through an active surveillance system. Of 2,946 laboratory-confirmed cases, 205 were dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 12 were fatal. No deaths were reported in persons under 16 years of age. Now the epidemic is fully controlled
VAMOS: a Pathfinder for the HAWC Gamma-Ray Observatory
VAMOS was a prototype detector built in 2011 at an altitude of 4100m a.s.l.
in the state of Puebla, Mexico. The aim of VAMOS was to finalize the design,
construction techniques and data acquisition system of the HAWC observatory.
HAWC is an air-shower array currently under construction at the same site of
VAMOS with the purpose to study the TeV sky. The VAMOS setup included six water
Cherenkov detectors and two different data acquisition systems. It was in
operation between October 2011 and May 2012 with an average live time of 30%.
Besides the scientific verification purposes, the eight months of data were
used to obtain the results presented in this paper: the detector response to
the Forbush decrease of March 2012, and the analysis of possible emission, at
energies above 30 GeV, for long gamma-ray bursts GRB111016B and GRB120328B.Comment: Accepted for pubblication in Astroparticle Physics Journal (20 pages,
10 figures). Corresponding authors: A.Marinelli and D.Zaboro
Documento de posición sobre las necesidades y niveles óptimos de vitamina D
IntroducciónEn los últimos años se ha producido un notable interés por la vitamina D, no sólo por su importancia crucial en el metabolismo mineral óseo, sino también por los efectos extraóseos, cada vez mejor conocidos.
Asi mismo, se ha constatado la existencia de valores séricos bajos de vitamina D, por debajo de lo deseable, en diferentes poblaciones, tanto sanas como enfermas, y se discute cuáles serían los niveles óptimos de vitamina D en sangre.
Por todo ello, la Sociedad Española de Investigación Ósea y Metabolismo Mineral (SEIOMM), conjuntamente con todas las Sociedades Científicas implicadas en el estudio del metabolismo óseo, han elaborado el presente documento de posición sobre las necesidades y niveles óptimos de vitamina D
Ionospheric response modeling under eclipse conditions: Evaluation of 14 December 2020, total solar eclipse prediction over the South American sector
In this work, we evaluate the SUPIM-INPE model prediction of the 14 December 2020, total solar eclipse over the South American continent. We compare the predictions with data from multiple instruments for monitoring the ionosphere and with different obscuration percentages (i.e., Jicamarca, 12.0°S, 76.8°W, 17%; Tucumán 26.9°S, 65.4° W, 49%; Chillán 36.6°S, 72.0°W; and Bahía Blanca, 38.7°S, 62.3°W, reach 95% obscuration) due to the eclipse. The analysis is done under total eclipse conditions and non-total eclipse conditions. Results obtained suggest that the model was able to reproduce with high accuracy both the daily variation and the eclipse impacts of E and F1 layers in the majority of the stations evaluated (except in Jicamarca station). The comparison at the F2 layer indicates small differences (<7.8%) between the predictions and observations at all stations during the eclipse periods. Additionally, statistical metrics reinforce the conclusion of a good performance of the model. Predicted and calibrated Total Electron Content (TEC, using 3 different techniques) are also compared. Results show that, although none of the selected TEC calibration methods have a good agreement with the SUPIM-INPE prediction, they exhibit similar trends in most of the cases. We also analyze data from the Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR), and Swarm-A and GOLD missions. The electron temperature changes observed in ISR and Swarm-A are underestimated by the prediction. Also, important changes in the O/N2 ratio due to the eclipse, have been observed with GOLD mission data. Thus, future versions of the SUPIM-INPE model for eclipse conditions should consider effects on thermospheric winds and changes in composition, specifically in the O/N2 ratio
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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study
Data sharing:
All data used in our study were obtained from the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data-sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Researchers can refer to collaborators of the Network, who are listed as coauthors of this Article (primary contact: Antonio Gasparrini, [email protected]), for information on accessing the data for each country. The R code is available on request, and a reproducible example is publicly available on the personal GitHub website of the first author (https://github.com/LinaMadaniyazi).For more on the MCC see https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002693#sec1 .Background:
Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.
Methods:
In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones.
Findings:
The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario.
Interpretation:
A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.This study was primarily supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant number JPMEERF20231007) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. MH was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of the Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (grant number JPMJSC20E4). AG was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/V034162/1) and the EU's Horizon 2020 research project Exhaustion (grant number 820655). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project 22–24920S). JJKJ was supported by the Academy of Finland (grant number 310372; Global Health Risks Related to Atmospheric Composition and Weather Consortium). FS was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, Department of Excellence project 2023–2027, Rethinking Data Science—Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications—University of Florence
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
© 2021 The Author(s). Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.Australian Research Council; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council
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Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study
Data availability:
The authors do not have permission to share data.Supplementary data are available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024002988?via%3Dihub#s0095 .Background:
Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has a higher effect.
Objectives:
We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
Methods:
We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.
Results:
Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.
Conclusions:
Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). BW by China Scholarship Council (number 202006010043); WY by China Scholarship Council (number 202006010044); SL by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number GNT2009866); JK and AU by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 20–28560S); NS by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776); S-CP and YLG by the Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan; MOST 109–2621-M-002–021); YH by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11412) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; MdSZSC and PHNS by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); HO and EI by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT34–17); JM by a fellowship of Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); AG by the Medical Research Council UK (grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID: NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655); AS, SR, and FdD by the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); VH by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant ID PCIN-2017–046); AT by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S); YG by Career Development Fellowship (number GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (number GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; Statistics South Africa kindly provided the mortality data, but had no other role in the study. This Article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania
La epidemiología del dengue y del dengue hemorrágico en Santiago de Cuba, 1997 The epidemiology of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Santiago de Cuba, 1997
En 1977, Cuba informó de su primera epidemia de dengue, durante la cual se registraron más de 500 000 casos de fiebre del dengue causados por el serotipo 1 del virus. En 1981, se produjo una gran epidemia de dengue hemorrágico causada por el serotipo 2. Esa vez se notificaron 344 203 casos en total, 10 312 casos clínicos de dengue hemorrágico y 158 defunciones, de las cuales 101 correspondieron a niños. Por medio de una búsqueda activa con confirmación de laboratorio, en el municipio de Santiago de Cuba de la provincia del mismo nombre se detectó precozmente en enero de 1997 la reintroducción del dengue, específicamente del virus del tipo 2, genotipo Jamaica. En este trabajo se presentan los aspectos epidemiológicos de mayor interés referentes a esa epidemia. Se notificaron 3 012 casos confirmados por serología, 205 clasificados como fiebre hemorrágica del dengue/síndrome de choque del dengue, de los cuales 12 fallecieron (todos adultos). La infección secundaria por virus del dengue fue uno de los principales factores de riesgo en el desarrollo de dengue hemorrágico y 98% de los casos, así como 92% de los fallecidos, manifestaron una respuesta de tipo secundario. Por primera vez se observó la posibilidad de contraer dengue hemorrágico en personas con una infección secundaria de 16 a 20 años después de la primera infección. Pertenecer a la raza blanca fue otro factor de riesgo de importancia, tal como se había observado desde la epidemia de 1981. En la última epidemia se demostró que la llamada “alerta de fiebre” no es útil para la detección temprana de una epidemia. Las medidas tomadas por las autoridades sanitarias del país evitaron la extensión de la epidemia a otros municipios que estaban infestados por Aedes aegypti.<br>A dengue epidemic that Cuba reported in 1997 registered more than 500 000 cases of dengue fever produced by viral serotype 1. In 1981, there was an epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever produced by serotype 2 of the virus. This time 344 203 clinical cases were reported, 10 312 of which were severe cases of hemorragic fever that led to 158 fatalities (101 of them among children). The reintroduction of dengue, and specifically of dengue viral serotype 2 (Jamaica genotype), was quickly detected in January 1997 through an active surveillance system with laboratory confirmation of cases in the municipality of Santiago de Cuba, in the province of the same name. The main epidemiological features of this outbreak are reported in this paper. A total of 3 012 cases were reported and serologically confirmed. These included 205 cases classified as dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS), 12 of which were case fatalities (all among adults). Secondary infection with dengue virus was one of the most important risk factors for DHF/DSS. Ninety-eight percent of the DHF/DSS cases and 92% of the fatal cases had contracted a secondary infection. It was the first time dengue hemorrhagic fever was documented as a secondary infection 16 to 20 years after initial infection. Belonging to the white racial group was another important risk factor for DHF/DSS, as had been observed during the 1981 epidemic. During the most recent epidemic it was demonstrated that the so called “fever alert” is not useful for early detection of an epidemic. Measures taken by the country’s public health officials prevented spread of the epidemic to other municipalities plagued by Aedes aegypti
Fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever in Cuba, 1997
AbstractObjectives: After more than 15 years without dengue activity, a dengue II epidemic was reported in Cuba in 1997. Three thousand and twelve serologically confirmed cases were reported, with 205 dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) cases and 12 fatalities. This report presents the clinical, serologic, and virologic findings in the 12 fatal DHF/DSS cases.Methods: Serum and necropsy samples were studied by viral isolation in C636 cell line and polymerase chain reaction. Serum samples were tested by IgM capture enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) and ELISA inhibition method (EIM).Results: All 12 cases were classified as DHF/DSS according to the Pan American Health Organization Guidelines for Control and Prevention of Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in the Americas. All patients were older than 15 years. Women were more frequently affected. The symptoms and signs presented by these patients were similar to those previously described in DHF/DSS cases. Clinical deterioration occurred on average at day 3.75. Abdominal pain and persistent vomiting were the earliest and most frequent warning signs. Dengue infection was confirmed in all cases. IgM antibodies were detected in 11 of 12 cases, all of them with a secondary infection. Dengue II virus was detected by viral isolation in 12 samples and by polymerase chain reaction in 17. Virus or RNA was detected in various tissues, including kidney, heart, lung, and brain.Conclusion: The clinical, pathologic, and laboratory features of 12 cases of fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever were reviewed. The results obtained demonstrate that adults with a primary dengue infection are at risk of developing the severe disease ( (DHF) if they are infected with a different serotype
Direct radiocarbon dates for prehistoric paintings at the Altamira, El Castillo and Niaux caves
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