Comparison and quantitative study of vulnerability/damage curves in South Africa

Southern Africa is considered a stable continental region in spite of several reported medium size earthquakes, some of which caused considerable damage and casualties. The 1969 Ceres 6.3 magnitude earthquake is considered the most destructive and caused serious damage estimated at US$24 million, with 12 mortalities and many more injured. Others include six mining related tremors which caused significant damage i.e. Welkom 1976, Klerksdorp 1977, Welkom 1989 and Carletonville 1992 seismic events. Notable for their damage to infrastructure was the 9th March 2005 Stilfontein event near Klerksdorp and 5th August 2014 event near Orkney. Most buildings and structures in South Africa are not designed to resist even relatively low intensity earthquake. Most architects, engineers and builders in South Africa do not consider seismic resistance as a design requirement. In this work, potential damage caused by strong earthquake was estimated for three classes of buildings situated in Sandton, Cape Town, Durban and Port Elizabeth. The effect of earthquakes causing damage was studied by considering the “worst case-scenario”, i.e. the occurrence of an earthquake with the maximum possible magnitude for an area. In four studied urban areas, expected damage was estimated for three classes of buildings: unreinforced masonry, bearing wall, low rise, reinforced concrete shear wall, without moment resisting frame, medium rise, and reinforced concrete shear wall, without moment resisting frame, high rise. The results of the analysis showed that in case of occurrence of a strong earthquake, the most damage is expected for the building classified as ‘unreinforced masonry, bearing wall, low rise, and reinforced concrete shear wall’.http://sajg.geoscienceworld.org/am2016Geolog

Population structure of Salmonella enterica Typhi in Harare, Zimbabwe (2012–19) before typhoid conjugate vaccine roll-out: A genomic epidemiology study

Background: The continued emergence of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, with ever increasing antimicrobial resistance, necessitates the use of vaccines in endemic countries. A typhoid fever outbreak in Harare, Zimbabwe, in 2018 from a multidrug resistant S Typhi with additional resistance to ciprofloxacin was the catalyst for the introduction of a typhoid conjugate vaccine programme. We aimed to investigate the emergence and evolution of antimicrobial resistance of endemic S Typhi in Zimbabwe and to determine the population structure, gene flux, and sequence polymorphisms of strains isolated before a typhoid conjugate vaccine programme to provide a baseline for future evaluation of the effect of the vaccination programme. Methods: In this genomic epidemiology study, we used short-read whole-genome sequencing of S Typhi isolated from clinical cases of typhoid fever in Harare, Zimbabwe, between Jan 1, 2012, and Feb 9, 2019, to determine the S Typhi population structure, gene flux, and sequence polymorphisms and reconstructed the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Maximum likelihood time-scaled phylogenetic trees of Zimbabwe isolates in the context of global isolates obtained from the National Center for Biotechnology Information were constructed to infer spread and emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Findings: The population structure of S Typhi in Harare, Zimbabwe, from 2012 to 2019 was dominated by multidrug resistant genotype 4.3.1.1.EA1 (H58) that spread to Zimbabwe from neighbouring countries in around 2009 (95% credible interval 2008·5–2010·0). Acquisition of an IncN plasmid carrying antimicrobial resistance genes including a qnrS gene and a mutation in the quinolone resistance determining region of gyrA gene contributed to non-susceptibility and resistance to quinolone antibiotics. A minority population of antimicrobial susceptible S Typhi genotype 3.3.1 strains were present throughout. Interpretation: The currently dominant S Typhi population is genotype 4.3.1.1 that spread to Zimbabwe and acquired additional antimicrobial resistance though acquisition of a plasmid and mutation in the gyrA gene. This study provides a baseline population structure for future evaluation of the effect of the typhoid conjugate vaccine programme in Harare

Population structure of Salmonella enterica Typhi in Harare, Zimbabwe (2012-19) before typhoid conjugate vaccine roll-out : a genomic epidemiology study

DATA SHARING : All sequence data are freely available from the Short Read Archive of the National Center for Biotechnology Information under accession numbers listed in the appendix (pp 12–63). Sample metadata are summarised in the appendix (pp 12–63).BACKGROUND : The continued emergence of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, with ever increasing antimicrobial resistance, necessitates the use of vaccines in endemic countries. A typhoid fever outbreak in Harare, Zimbabwe, in 2018 from a multidrug resistant S Typhi with additional resistance to ciprofloxacin was the catalyst for the introduction of a typhoid conjugate vaccine programme. We aimed to investigate the emergence and evolution of antimicrobial resistance of endemic S Typhi in Zimbabwe and to determine the population structure, gene flux, and sequence polymorphisms of strains isolated before a typhoid conjugate vaccine programme to provide a baseline for future evaluation of the effect of the vaccination programme. METHODS : In this genomic epidemiology study, we used short-read whole-genome sequencing of S Typhi isolated from clinical cases of typhoid fever in Harare, Zimbabwe, between Jan 1, 2012, and Feb 9, 2019, to determine the S Typhi population structure, gene flux, and sequence polymorphisms and reconstructed the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Maximum likelihood time-scaled phylogenetic trees of Zimbabwe isolates in the context of global isolates obtained from the National Center for Biotechnology Information were constructed to infer spread and emergence of antimicrobial resistance. FINDINGS : The population structure of S Typhi in Harare, Zimbabwe, from 2012 to 2019 was dominated by multidrug resistant genotype 4.3.1.1.EA1 (H58) that spread to Zimbabwe from neighbouring countries in around 2009 (95% credible interval 2008·5–2010·0). Acquisition of an IncN plasmid carrying antimicrobial resistance genes including a qnrS gene and a mutation in the quinolone resistance determining region of gyrA gene contributed to non-susceptibility and resistance to quinolone antibiotics. A minority population of antimicrobial susceptible S Typhi genotype 3.3.1 strains were present throughout. INTERPRETATION : The currently dominant S Typhi population is genotype 4.3.1.1 that spread to Zimbabwe and acquired additional antimicrobial resistance though acquisition of a plasmid and mutation in the gyrA gene. This study provides a baseline population structure for future evaluation of the effect of the typhoid conjugate vaccine programme in Harare.The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Institute Strategic Programme.http://www.thelancet.com/microbeam2024Medical MicrobiologySDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

Regulatory and Activated T Cells in Human Schistosoma haematobium Infections

Acquired immunity against helminths is characterised by a complex interplay between the effector Th1 and Th2 immune responses and it slowly manifests with age as a result of cumulative exposure to parasite antigens. Data from experimental models suggest that immunity is also influenced by regulatory T cells (Treg), but as yet studies on Treg in human schistosome infections are limited

First recorded eruption of Nabro volcano, Eritrea, 2011

We present a synthesis of diverse observations of the first recorded eruption of Nabro volcano, Eritrea, which began on 12 June 2011. While no monitoring of the volcano was in effect at the time, it has been possible to reconstruct the nature and evolution of the eruption through analysis of re- gional seismological and infrasound data and satellite remote sensing data, supplemented by petrological analysis of erupted products and brief field surveys. The event is notable for the comparative rarity of recorded historical eruptions in the region and of caldera systems in general, for the prodi- gious quantity of SO2 emitted into the atmosphere and the significant human impacts that ensued notwithstanding the low population density of the Afar region. It is also relevant in understanding the broader magmatic and tectonic signifi- cance of the volcanic massif of which Nabro forms a part and which strikes obliquely to the principal rifting directions in the Red Sea and northern Afar. The whole-rock compositions of Editorial responsibility: G. Giordano the erupted lavas and tephra range from trachybasaltic to trachybasaltic andesite, and crystal-hosted melt inclusions contain up to 3,000 ppm of sulphur by weight. The eruption was preceded by significant seismicity, detected by regional networks of sensors and accompanied by sustained tremor. Substantial infrasound was recorded at distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometres from the vent, beginning at the onset of the eruption and continuing for weeks. Analysis of ground deformation suggests the eruption was fed by a shal- low, NW–SE-trending dike, which is consistent with field and satellite observations of vent distributions. Despite lack of prior planning and preparedness for volcanic events in the country, rapid coordination of the emergency response miti- gated the human costs of the eruption

CD16 Expression on Monocytes in Healthy Individuals but Not Schistosome-Infected Patients Is Positively Associated with Levels of Parasite-Specific IgG and IgG1

Human IgG1 antibody responses are associated with protection against Schistosoma haematobium infection and are now a target for schistosome vaccine development. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between total IgG and the IgG subclasses and the monocyte IgG receptor, known as FcγRIIIa or CD16, in schistosome exposed people. Systemic levels of schistosome-specific anti-adult worm total IgG and IgG subclass titres were measured by ELISA in 100 individuals from an S. haematobium endemic area in Zimbabwe and, using parametric statistical methods and regression analysis, related to the levels of CD16 expression on individuals' circulating monocytes, determined via flow cytometry. Monocyte CD16 expression rose with parasite-specific total IgG and IgG1 in healthy participants, but not in schistosome infected patients. Similar to parasite-specific IgG and IgG1, CD16 expression in healthy individuals is associated with protection against schistosome infection. This relationship indicates a mechanistic link between the innate and adaptive immune responses to helminth infection in protection against infection. Further understanding the elements of a protective immune response in schistosomiasis may aid in efforts to develop a protective vaccine against this disease.This work was supported by the World Health Organisation and the Wellcome Trust grant WT082028MA, the Thrasher Research Fund and the Medical Research Council grant LJA-544

Independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, and improved complementary feeding, on child stunting and anaemia in rural Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting reduces survival and impairs neurodevelopment. We tested the independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) on stunting and anaemia in in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised, community-based, 2 × 2 factorial trial in two rural districts in Zimbabwe. Clusters were defined as the catchment area of between one and four village health workers employed by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care. Women were eligible for inclusion if they permanently lived in clusters and were confirmed pregnant. Clusters were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to standard of care (52 clusters), IYCF (20 g of a small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplement per day from age 6 to 18 months plus complementary feeding counselling; 53 clusters), WASH (construction of a ventilated improved pit latrine, provision of two handwashing stations, liquid soap, chlorine, and play space plus hygiene counselling; 53 clusters), or IYCF plus WASH (53 clusters). A constrained randomisation technique was used to achieve balance across the groups for 14 variables related to geography, demography, water access, and community-level sanitation coverage. Masking of participants and fieldworkers was not possible. The primary outcomes were infant length-for-age Z score and haemoglobin concentrations at 18 months of age among children born to mothers who were HIV negative during pregnancy. These outcomes were analysed in the intention-to-treat population. We estimated the effects of the interventions by comparing the two IYCF groups with the two non-IYCF groups and the two WASH groups with the two non-WASH groups, except for outcomes that had an important statistical interaction between the interventions. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01824940. FINDINGS: Between Nov 22, 2012, and March 27, 2015, 5280 pregnant women were enrolled from 211 clusters. 3686 children born to HIV-negative mothers were assessed at age 18 months (884 in the standard of care group from 52 clusters, 893 in the IYCF group from 53 clusters, 918 in the WASH group from 53 clusters, and 991 in the IYCF plus WASH group from 51 clusters). In the IYCF intervention groups, the mean length-for-age Z score was 0·16 (95% CI 0·08-0·23) higher and the mean haemoglobin concentration was 2·03 g/L (1·28-2·79) higher than those in the non-IYCF intervention groups. The IYCF intervention reduced the number of stunted children from 620 (35%) of 1792 to 514 (27%) of 1879, and the number of children with anaemia from 245 (13·9%) of 1759 to 193 (10·5%) of 1845. The WASH intervention had no effect on either primary outcome. Neither intervention reduced the prevalence of diarrhoea at 12 or 18 months. No trial-related serious adverse events, and only three trial-related adverse events, were reported. INTERPRETATION: Household-level elementary WASH interventions implemented in rural areas in low-income countries are unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia and might not reduce diarrhoea. Implementation of these WASH interventions in combination with IYCF interventions is unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia more than implementation of IYCF alone. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Swiss Development Cooperation, UNICEF, and US National Institutes of Health.The SHINE trial is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1021542 and OPP113707); UK Department for International Development; Wellcome Trust, UK (093768/Z/10/Z, 108065/Z/15/Z and 203905/Z/16/Z); Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; US National Institutes of Health (2R01HD060338-06); and UNICEF (PCA-2017-0002)