An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

Recently, the study of the coherent noise model has led to a simple (binary) prediction algorithm for the forthcoming earthquake magnitude in aftershock sequences. This algorithm is based on the concept of natural time and exploits the complexity exhibited by the coherent noise model. Here, using the relocated catalogue from Southern California Seismic Network for 1981 to June 2011, we evaluate the application of this algorithm for the aftershocks of strong earthquakes of magnitude M≥6. The study is also extended by using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project catalogue to the case of the six strongest earthquakes in the Earth during the last almost forty years. The predictor time series exhibits the ubiquitous 1/f noise behavior

Identifying the Occurrence Time of the Destructive Kahramanmaraş-Gazientep Earthquake of Magnitude M7.8 in Turkey on 6 February 2023

Here, we employ natural time analysis of seismicity together with non-extensive statistical mechanics aiming at shortening the occurrence time window of the Kahramanmaraş-Gazientep M7.8 earthquake. The results obtained are in the positive direction pointing to the fact that after 3 February 2023 at 11:05:58 UTC, a strong earthquake was imminent. Natural time analysis also reveals a minimum fluctuation of the order parameter of seismicity almost three and a half months before the M7.8 earthquake, pointing to the initiation of seismic electrical activity. Moreover, before this earthquake occurrence, the detrended fluctuation analysis of the earthquake magnitude time-series reveals random behavior. Finally, when applying earthquake nowcasting, we find average earthquake potential score values which are compatible with those previously observed before strong (M≥7.1) earthquakes. The results obtained may improve our understanding of the physics of crustal phenomena that lead to strong earthquakes

The CiCs(SiI)n defect in silicon from a density functional theory perspective

Carbon is an important defect in silicon (Si) as it can interact with intrinsic point defects and affect the operation of devices. In heavily irradiated Si containing carbon the initially produced carbon interstitial - carbon substitutional (CiCs) defect can associate with self-interstitials (SiI’s) to form, in the course of irradiation, the CiCs(SiI) defect and further to form larger complexes namely CiCs(SiI)n defects by the sequential trapping of self-interstitials defects. In the present study, we use density functional theory to clarify the structure and energetics of the CiCs(SiI)n defects. Here we report that the lowest energy CiCs(SiI) and CiCs(SiI)2 defects are strongly bound with -2.77 eV and -5.30 eV, respectively