Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area and their Determinants – an empirical view

In this paper, we present evidence on the statistical features of observed dispersion in HICP inflation rates in the Euro area. Our descriptive exercise shows that there is still a remarkable dispersion of HICP inflation rates across the member countries. We find that most of dispersion originates in the non-traded categories of the HICP. This suggests that the main source of dispersion in countries' headline inflation rates is in those components of the HICP where non-traded goods (services, (public) goods with regulated and administered prices) are more intensely represented. We then examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the states of the Euro area in 1999–2007 using alternative classifications of this group and three different datasets. The evidence presented shows that output gaps and a proxy for price level convergence were statistically significant. On the other hand, some determinants that were found significant in previous studies (for example Honohan and Lane, 2003, 2004; ECB, 2003) has no impact on inflation in our expanded time span (e.g. exchange rate movements) The dispersion of HICP inflation is expected to increase in the coming years as the new EU member states will join the Euro area. There are some risks for these countries connected with the common monetary policy, which is adjusted more to the conditions of stabilized advanced economies forming the core of the Euro area. This creates potential problems for the EU common monetary policy (ECB), in particular negative (positive) interest rates, their repercussions on investment processes, consumption and the possibility of creating asset bubbles.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64425/1/wp958.pd

Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area and their Determinants – an empirical view

In this paper, we present evidence on the statistical features of observed dispersion in HICP inflation rates in the Euro area. Our descriptive exercise shows that there is still a remarkable dispersion of HICP inflation rates across the member countries. We find that most of dispersion originates in the non-traded categories of the HICP. This suggests that the main source of dispersion in countries' headline inflation rates is in those components of the HICP where non-traded goods (services, (public) goods with regulated and administered prices) are more intensely represented. We then examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the states of the Euro area in 1999–2007 using alternative classifications of this group and three different datasets. The evidence presented shows that output gaps and a proxy for price level convergence were statistically significant. On the other hand, some determinants that were found significant in previous studies (for example Honohan and Lane, 2003, 2004; ECB, 2003) has no impact on inflation in our expanded time span (e.g. exchange rate movements) The dispersion of HICP inflation is expected to increase in the coming years as the new EU member states will join the Euro area. There are some risks for these countries connected with the common monetary policy, which is adjusted more to the conditions of stabilized advanced economies forming the core of the Euro area. This creates potential problems for the EU common monetary policy (ECB), in particular negative (positive) interest rates, their repercussions on investment processes, consumption and the possibility of creating asset bubbles.inflation differentials, price convergence, exchange rate, panel data

A theoretical and empirical analysis of the nominal convergence in transition countries with a particular attention to the Czech economy

This PhD thesis aims at exploring price convergence in the European Union with a particular emphasis paid to the Czech Republic and new EU member states. Fundamental issues are discussed in the first chapter, starting with the notion and term `convergence' since many alternative definitions have been proposed in the literature. Apart from that, main indicators utilized when investigating price convergence are defined (for example purchasing power parity/purchasing power standard, PPP/PPS, comparative price level, CPL) and a brief review of the literature is added. The second chapter deals with several issues accompanying price convergence in general and in transforming countries in particular such as the club convergence hypothesis, issues of tradability, availability of datasets and their strenghts and weaknesses, the link between price levels and rates of inflation, and determinants. Both `standard' and `modern' approaches are utilized in the last chapter so that several hypotheses can be verified. For the sake of comparability, individual CPLs for EU-27 countries for the period 1995(9)-2011 are employed. Firstly, stylised facts for both old EU and NMS are presented (including effects stemming from the on-going financial crisis). Secondly, the club convergence hypothesis is examined with help of two different ways - cluster analysis and the Phillips-Sul test (both for the EU and its `subgroups'). Both of them do confirm the existence of convergence clubs in the EU (including its old and new part). Following the previous findings, a somewhat broader and richer view on price level dynamics is supplemented via utilization of the so-called Stochastic kernel (Quah, 1993). This methodology shows both convergence and divergence (divergence/polarization/stratification) in the EU. Finally, the last section of this chapter is focused on a thorough search for determinants of price levels in the EU. The Bayesian approach is employed (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and our results confirm both the importance of both `traditional' determinants such as labour costs and output gap and new ones such as broadly defined institutional factors. Main findings of this thesis are summarized and commented in the conclusion aiming at providing implications for policymakers and some guidance for future research

Fiskální politika v Evropské unii - Quo Vadis?

Práce se zaměřila na hodnocení fiskální politiky v Evropské unii. V prvé části jsme shrnuli vývoj fiskální politiky a názory ekonomický směrů na ni. Druhá část se věnuje vybraným problémem fiskální politiky. Je řešena otázka optimálního fiskálního pravidla. Ve třetí části práce je zachycen vývoj v eurozóně. Poslední část se zabývá alternativami pro omezení fiskální politiky v eurozóně

Fiskální politika v Evropské unii - Quo Vadis?

Práce se zaměřila na hodnocení fiskální politiky v Evropské unii. V prvé části jsme shrnuli vývoj fiskální politiky a názory ekonomický směrů na ni. Druhá část se věnuje vybraným problémem fiskální politiky. Je řešena otázka optimálního fiskálního pravidla. Ve třetí části práce je zachycen vývoj v eurozóně. Poslední část se zabývá alternativami pro omezení fiskální politiky v eurozóně

An Empirical Analysis of Price Convergence of the Czech Republic and the New EU Member States towards the Euro Area

The main goal of this paper is to analyse the process of price convergence (beta and sigma convergence) in new EU Member States towards the Euro area (EU-12). The theoretical part of the paper consists of a brief overview of methods that are employed for analyses of the process of price convergence. Both main concepts - sigma and beta convergence are covered including various tests that are described in greater detail. The empirical part of the paper is focused on testing hypotheses of sigma and beta convergence using macroeconomic data (comparative price levels for GDP) for twelve new EU Member States in the period 1995-2008. Various econometrical methods (OLS, 2SLS, and two dynamic methods) are utilised in order to deal with problems associated with this particular type of analyses. Our results show that both hypotheses (sigma and beta price convergence) do hold for the new EU Member States. The estimated time to close a half of the remaining gap of comparative price levels towards the Euro area average for the group consisting of all new EU Member States (NMS12) is estimated to be approximately 9.6 years, for the group of more advanced countries (NMS5) is approximately 7.1 years.new EU Member States, international comparisons, comparative price level, beta and sigma convergence

Modern methods of production and foreign direct investment

The article deals with the phenomenon of globalization and in particular its influence on production chains of multinational firms. The on-going process of globalization has set off new trends and possibilities of production (e.g. outsourcing) which resulted in changes of firms´ behaviour. This led to new approaches in their decisions concerning internationalization of production process, i.e. investment abroad, mainly realised by setting-up a new production facility in a foreign country, usually in the form of the foreign direct investment (FDI). Some of these influences are also connected with new types of production and its structure. The first part of the text is devoted to a brief review of theories which may be used by explaining different ways of internalisation of firm´s production, to the latest empirical data concerning FDI and some thoughts concerning methodological problems linked to FDI statistics. The next part of the text tries to shed light on different producing methods, classification schemas and definition of selected modern forms of production and discusses possible links to the FDI. The third part of the text presents a simple model for assessing value of FDI which can be used for decision-making within a multinational firm. The last part summarises the main findings.outsourcing, off-shoring, multinational firm, globalization, foreign direct investment

Euro area and inflation differentials – is there anything new?

This paper presents some evidence on observed dispersion in HICP inflation rates in the Euro area. Our descriptive exercise shows there is still a remarkable dispersion of HICP inflation rates across euro area countries. In a decomposition (based on subindices corresponding to the COICOP) of this dispersion, we are able to see that most of it originates in the non-traded categories of the HICP. This suggests that the main source of dispersion in countries ’ headline inflation rates is in those components of the HICP where non-traded goods (services, regulated and administered prices) are more intensely represented. Then, determinants of inflation differentials are examined employing dynamic panel data techniques for quarterly and yearly data and for various definition of the Euro area in 1999–2008. Output gaps, a measure for price level convergence and oil price index were important. In addition, some determinants which were found significant in previous studies (for example exchange rate for example in Honohan and Lane 2003, 2004 or ECB, 2003) did not seem to have an impact on inflation in our extended time span. The dispersion of HICP inflation has increased recently due to three waves o

Macroeconomic development of the Czech republic in the years 1996-2004

Economic growth of the Czech Republic differed strongly in two periods: 1996-1999 and 2000-2004. While in the first period the economy was hit by the recession and the average annual rate of growth of GDP reached only 0,9 %, in the second period the growth accelerated to 3,2 %. The economic growth measured by the indicators of real income (namely of real gross domestic income) was faster. This was caused by positive contribution of the terms of trade. On the supply side the main contributing factors were labour and total factor productivity. On the demand side the growth was pulled by domestic demand which grew even faster than GDP. The contribution of foreign trade becomes positive in the year 2004 and mainly in 2005. Macroeconomic stability of the Czech economy improved substantially in the fields of inflation, monetary development and foreign trade. Imbalances persist in general government budget and on the current account of the balance of payment. The process of real convergence accelerated in the years 2000-2004 and was based on the growth of labour and total factor productivity. In 2004 the GDP per capita in purchasing power standards surpassed 70 % of the average level in EU-25. The comparative price level of the Czech Republic in this year reached only 53 % despite accelerated process of catching-up.economic growth, inflation, gross domestic product, total factor productivity, real gross domestic income, domestic demand, foreign trade and trade balance, national savings, gross capital formation, general government budget

The czech economy after its entry into European Union

Economic growth of the Czech Republic differed strongly in two periods: 2001-2003 and 2004-2006. While in the first period the average annual rate of growth of GDP reached only 2,7 %, in the second period the growth accelerated to 5,7 %. The economic growth measured by the indicators of real income (namely of real gross domestic income) was faster. This was caused by positive contribution of the terms of trade. On the supply side the main contributing factors were labour and total factor productivity. On the demand side the growth was pulled by domestic demand which grew in the period 2001-2003 even faster than GDP. The contribution of foreign trade becomes positive in the years 2004-2006 with very strong contribution in the year 2005. Macroeconomic stability of the Czech economy improved substantially in the field of foreign trade. The trade balance becomes positive from the year 2004 and growing imbalance persists in the balance of income. The negative gap between savings and investments is caused mainly by households and general government. The process of real convergence accelerated in the years 2000-2006 and was based on the growth of labour and total factor productivity. In 2006 the GDP per capita in purchasing power standards reached almost 80 % of the average level in EU-27. The comparative price level of the Czech Republic in this year reached only 61 % despite accelerated process of catching-up.economic growth, inflation, gross domestic product, total factor productivity, real gross domestic income, domestic demand, foreign trade and trade balance, national savings, gross capital formation, general government budget