Social Conflict and Macroeconomics: What Determines the Effectiveness of Aggregate Demand Policies?

This paper examines the role of social conflict in explaining macroeconomic phenomena and, especially, the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies as a means of raising real output. The social conflict approach to macroeconomic phenomena is compared with a Keynesian view along with Ball, Mankiw and Romer’s (1988) and Lucas’ (1973) models of the determinants of the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies (or the slope of the Phillips curve). Empirical analysis over the period from the 1950s to the 1990s for 15 OECD countries provides significant evidence that the social conflict view of inflation has much to offer in explaining differences in the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies both across countries and through time.social conflict, aggregate demand policies, political economy

Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership.capital flows, transition economies, accession countries and EU membership

Social Conflict and Macroeconomics: what determines the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies?

This paper examines the role of social conflict in explaining macroeconomic phenomena and, especially, the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies as a means of raising real output. The social conflict approach to macroeconomic phenomena is compared with a Keynesian view along with Ball, Mankiw and Romer’s (1988) and Lucas’ (1973) models of the determinants of the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies (or the slope of the Phillips curve). Empirical analysis over the period from the 1950s to the 1990s for 15 OECD countries provides significant evidence that the social conflict view of inflation has much to offer in explaining differences in the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies both across countries and through time