Challenges in Quantitative Abstractions for Collective Adaptive Systems

Like with most large-scale systems, the evaluation of quantitative properties of collective adaptive systems is an important issue that crosscuts all its development stages, from design (in the case of engineered systems) to runtime monitoring and control. Unfortunately it is a difficult problem to tackle in general, due to the typically high computational cost involved in the analysis. This calls for the development of appropriate quantitative abstraction techniques that preserve most of the system's dynamical behaviour using a more compact representation. This paper focuses on models based on ordinary differential equations and reviews recent results where abstraction is achieved by aggregation of variables, reflecting on the shortcomings in the state of the art and setting out challenges for future research.Comment: In Proceedings FORECAST 2016, arXiv:1607.0200

Extended Differential Aggregations in Process Algebra for Performance and Biology

We study aggregations for ordinary differential equations induced by fluid semantics for Markovian process algebra which can capture the dynamics of performance models and chemical reaction networks. Whilst previous work has required perfect symmetry for exact aggregation, we present approximate fluid lumpability, which makes nearby processes perfectly symmetric after a perturbation of their parameters. We prove that small perturbations yield nearby differential trajectories. Numerically, we show that many heterogeneous processes can be aggregated with negligible errors.Comment: In Proceedings QAPL 2014, arXiv:1406.156

Spatial Fluid Limits for Stochastic Mobile Networks

We consider Markov models of large-scale networks where nodes are characterized by their local behavior and by a mobility model over a two-dimensional lattice. By assuming random walk, we prove convergence to a system of partial differential equations (PDEs) whose size depends neither on the lattice size nor on the population of nodes. This provides a macroscopic view of the model which approximates discrete stochastic movements with continuous deterministic diffusions. We illustrate the practical applicability of this result by modeling a network of mobile nodes with on/off behavior performing file transfers with connectivity to 802.11 access points. By means of an empirical validation against discrete-event simulation we show high quality of the PDE approximation even for low populations and coarse lattices. In addition, we confirm the computational advantage in using the PDE limit over a traditional ordinary differential equation limit where the lattice is modeled discretely, yielding speed-ups of up to two orders of magnitude

From Electric Circuits to Chemical Networks

Electric circuits manipulate electric charge and magnetic flux via a small set of discrete components to implement useful functionality over continuous time-varying signals represented by currents and voltages. Much of the same functionality is useful to biological organisms, where it is implemented by a completely different set of discrete components (typically proteins) and signal representations (typically via concentrations). We describe how to take a linear electric circuit and systematically convert it to a chemical reaction network of the same functionality, as a dynamical system. Both the structure and the components of the electric circuit are dissolved in the process, but the resulting chemical network is intelligible. This approach provides access to a large library of well-studied devices, from analog electronics, whose chemical network realization can be compared to natural biochemical networks, or used to engineer synthetic biochemical networks

Refined theory of packages

The fluid approximation for PEPA usually considers large populations of simple interacting sequential components characterised by small local state spaces. A natural question which arises is whether it is possible to extend this technique to composite processes with arbitrary large local state spaces. In [1] the authors were able to give a positive answer for a certain class of models. The current paper will enlarge this class

A computational approach to steady-state convergence of fluid limits for Coxian queuing networks with abandonment

Many-server queuing networks with general service and abandonment times have proven to be a realistic model for scenarios such as call centers and health-care systems. The presence of abandonment makes analytical treatment difficult for general topologies. Hence, such networks are usually studied by means of fluid limits. The current state of the art, however, suffers from two drawbacks. First, convergence to a fluid limit has been established only for the transient, but not for the steady state regime. Second, in the case of general distributed service and abandonment times, convergence to a fluid limit has been either established only for a single queue, or has been given by means of a system of coupled integral equations which does not allow for a numerical solution. By making the mild assumption of Coxian-distributed service and abandonment times, in this paper we address both drawbacks by establishing convergence in probability to a system of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) using the theory of Kurtz. The presence of abandonments leads in many cases to ODE systems with a global attractor, which is known to be a sufficient condition for the fluid and the stochastic steady state to coincide in the limiting regime. The fact that our ODE systems are piecewise affine enables a computational method for establishing the presence of a global attractor, based on a solution of a system of linear matrix inequalities

Forward and Backward Bisimulations for Chemical Reaction Networks

We present two quantitative behavioral equivalences over species of a chemical reaction network (CRN) with semantics based on ordinary differential equations. Forward CRN bisimulation identifies a partition where each equivalence class represents the exact sum of the concentrations of the species belonging to that class. Backward CRN bisimulation relates species that have the identical solutions at all time points when starting from the same initial conditions. Both notions can be checked using only CRN syntactical information, i.e., by inspection of the set of reactions. We provide a unified algorithm that computes the coarsest refinement up to our bisimulations in polynomial time. Further, we give algorithms to compute quotient CRNs induced by a bisimulation. As an application, we find significant reductions in a number of models of biological processes from the literature. In two cases we allow the analysis of benchmark models which would be otherwise intractable due to their memory requirements.Comment: Extended version of the CONCUR 2015 pape

Process-algebraic modelling of priority queueing networks

We consider a closed multiclass queueing network model in which each class receives a different priority level and jobs with lower priority are served only if there are no higher-priority jobs in the queue. Such systems do not enjoy a product form solution, thus their analysis is typically carried out through approximate mean value analysis (AMVA) techniques. We formalise the problem in PEPA in a way amenable to differential analysis. Experimental results show that our approach is competitive with simulation and AMVA methods

Approximate reduction of heterogenous nonlinear models with differential hulls

We present a model reduction technique for a class of nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of heterogeneous systems, where heterogeneity is expressed in terms of classes of state variables having the same dynamics structurally, but which are characterized by distinct parameters. To this end, we first build a system of differential inequalities that provides lower and upper bounds for each original state variable, but such that it is homogeneous in its parameters. Then, we use two methods for exact aggregation of ODEs to exploit this homogeneity, yielding a smaller model of size independent of the number of heterogeneous classes. We apply this technique to two case studies: a multiclass queuing network and a model of epidemics spread

Scalable analysis of stochastic process algebra models

The performance modelling of large-scale systems using discrete-state approaches is fundamentally hampered by the well-known problem of state-space explosion, which causes exponential growth of the reachable state space as a function of the number of the components which constitute the model. Because they are mapped onto continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs), models described in the stochastic process algebra PEPA are no exception. This thesis presents a deterministic continuous-state semantics of PEPA which employs ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as the underlying mathematics for the performance evaluation. This is suitable for models consisting of large numbers of replicated components, as the ODE problem size is insensitive to the actual population levels of the system under study. Furthermore, the ODE is given an interpretation as the fluid limit of a properly defined CTMC model when the initial population levels go to infinity. This framework allows the use of existing results which give error bounds to assess the quality of the differential approximation. The computation of performance indices such as throughput, utilisation, and average response time are interpreted deterministically as functions of the ODE solution and are related to corresponding reward structures in the Markovian setting. The differential interpretation of PEPA provides a framework that is conceptually analogous to established approximation methods in queueing networks based on meanvalue analysis, as both approaches aim at reducing the computational cost of the analysis by providing estimates for the expected values of the performance metrics of interest. The relationship between these two techniques is examined in more detail in a comparison between PEPA and the Layered Queueing Network (LQN) model. General patterns of translation of LQN elements into corresponding PEPA components are applied to a substantial case study of a distributed computer system. This model is analysed using stochastic simulation to gauge the soundness of the translation. Furthermore, it is subjected to a series of numerical tests to compare execution runtimes and accuracy of the PEPA differential analysis against the LQN mean-value approximation method. Finally, this thesis discusses the major elements concerning the development of a software toolkit, the PEPA Eclipse Plug-in, which offers a comprehensive modelling environment for PEPA, including modules for static analysis, explicit state-space exploration, numerical solution of the steady-state equilibrium of the Markov chain, stochastic simulation, the differential analysis approach herein presented, and a graphical framework for model editing and visualisation of performance evaluation results