Carbon, land and water: a global analysis of the hydrologic dimensions of climate change mitigation through afforestation / reforestation

Climate change / Water supply / Forests / Land use / Afforestation / Reforestation / Water balance / Models / Evapotranspiration / Precipitation / Water use / Ecosystems

Modeling high-resolution climate change impacts on wheat and maize in Italy

Abstract The Mediterranean basin has been identified as a prominent hotspot of climate change, with expected negative impacts on crop productivity, among others. Given the primary role that agriculture has to sustain cultural values, economic opportunities, and food security, it is crucial to identify specific risks in agriculture due to climate change, which can address more effective adaptation strategies and policies to cope with climate change. This study aims to evaluate the high-resolution impacts of climate change on the length of the growing cycle and yield of durum wheat, common wheat, and maize in Italy by using the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize crop models implemented in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software. A digital platform (GIS-DSSAT) was developed to couple crop simulation models with dynamically downscaled climate projections at high resolution for Italy, which can better represent the Italian landscape complexity and the spatial distribution of different pedological and crop management features, providing more detailed information on the expected impacts on crops respect to previous studies at a coarser resolution. The projections have been extended for two climate change scenarios and accounting for uncertainty, either considering or not the potential direct effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). Results show that climate change may affect Italian cereal production in the medium to long term periods. Maize is the main affected crop, with yield reductions homogeneously distributed from North to South Italy. Wheat yield is expected to decrease mainly in southern Italy, while northern Italy may benefit from higher precipitation regimes. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations may partially offset the negative impact posed by climate change and increase the benefits in the northern regions, especially for common and durum wheat

Trees and water: smallholder agroforestry on irrigated lands in Northern India

Trees / Populus deltoids / Agroforestry / Afforestation / Reforestation / Models / Water use / Water balance / Evapotranspiration / Precipitation / Remote sensing / Irrigation requirements / India

A kingdom in decline. Holocene range contraction of the lion (Panthera leo) modelled with Global Environmental Stratification

Aim We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Location The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts. Methods We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner. Results We find that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara 6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion. Main Conclusions This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene

Hemlokin villakirvan nissimallit invaasion kattamasta Pohjois-Amerikan levinneisyysalueesta ja projektiot alkuperäiseltä levinneisyysalueelta ja tulevaisuuden ilmastosta

The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand - HWA) is invasive in eastern North America where it causes extensive mortality to hemlock communities. The future of these communities under projected climate change is an issue of landscape ecological interest and speculation. We employed the MaxEnt algorithm with the random subset feature selection algorithm (RSFSA) in creating HWA niche models. Final models were ensembles of 12 statistically best models with six predictors each. Out of 119 climatic, topographic, and soil variables, 42 were used in at least one final model. Soil features, followed by climate and topographic features, were most common in selected models. The three most important variables among all models were November potential evapotranspiration, slope, and percent Ochrepts soil. The potential distributions of HWA within eastern North America were projected under historical and four future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070 under low and high CO2 emissions. The mean of the minimum values for the minimum temperature of the coldest month from the 12 MaxEnt model projections in eastern North America was -15.8°C. This value was close to -15°C, the extreme minimum temperature found for both HWA occurrence points and previously reported HWA cold temperature limits. These results indicate that HWA may be close to equilibrium distribution in eastern North America under current climate. We also reverse-casted the eastern North American MaxEnt model back onto the HWA native ranges in eastern Asia and western North America. The projections match best with native ranges in Asian islands, such as Japan, and the Cascade Mountains in western North America. Statistically significant HWA range shifts of 221-468 km northwards and 110-164 km eastwards were projected by the 12 models for 2050-2070. The 2070 high CO2 emission scenario models projects HWA suitability throughout most of the northern range of eastern hemlock.Peer reviewe

Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent

Small leucine rich proteoglycans are differently distributed in normal and pathological endometrium

BACKGROUND: During the woman's fertile period, the non-pregnant uterus is subject to constant cyclic changes. The complex mechanisms that control the balance among proliferation, differentiation, cell death and the structural remodeling of the extracellular matrix can contribute to the benign or malignant endometrial pathological state. The small leucine-rich proteoglycans (SLRPs) are important components of cell surface and extracellular matrices. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using immunohistochemistry, we showed that the distribution patterns of SLRPs were completely modified in the pathological compared to normal endometrium. RESULTS: The expression of SLRPs was low/absent in all endometrial pathologies examined compared to normal endometrium. We observed an increase of lumican from proliferative to secretory phase of the endometrium and a decrease of fibromodulin, biglycan and decorin. In menopause endometrial tissue, the level of expression of fibromodulin, biglycan, decorin and lumican dramatically decreased. CONCLUSION: The results revealed the prominence and importance of proteoglycans in the tissue architecture and extracellular matrix organization

Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia

Copyright © 2015 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Science of the Total Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Science of the Total Environment (2015), DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Those reservoirs at risk to future change should be identified, and mitigating measures investigated.European Commission Seventh Framework Project ‘WASSERMed’ (Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean

Follicular versus luteal phase ovarian stimulation during the same menstrual cycle (DuoStim) in a reduced ovarian reserve population results in a similar euploid blastocyst formation rate: new insight in ovarian reserve exploitation

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