Prognostic cardiovascular cut-off values of dietary caffeine in a cohort of unselected men and women from general population

Background and aims: Among an unselected cohort of men and women from general population (n = 1.668), the prognostic effects of being over the cut-off of all-source dietary caffeine intake were studied. Methods and results: Prognostic cut-off values for coronary events, incident heart failure (HF), cerebrovascular events (CBV) and arrhythmic events (ARR) were found by means of the receiver-operating-characteristic curves method. Those for HF (>230 mg/day), for CBV (>280 mg/day) and for ARR (>280 mg/day) were confirmed in multivariate Cox analysis adjusted for age, body mass index, circulating thyroid hormone, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking, dietary intake of ethanol, basal heart rate, low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, forced expiratory volume in 1 s and β-blocking therapy. Being over these cut-off values was associated to a reduced hazard ratio during the follow-up in the whole cohort (HR 0.678, 95%CI 0.567-0.908, p = 0.009 for HF; 0.651, 95%CI 0.428-0.994, p = 0.018 for CBV; 0.395, 95%CI 0.395-0.933, p = 0.022 for ARR) and in men (0.652, 0.442-0.961, p = 0.029; 0.432, 0.201-0.927, p = 0.03; 0.553, 0.302-1.000, p = 0.05, respectively) but not in women. The caffeine-induced risk decrease observed in the whole cohort is therefore entirely attributable to men. In the case of HF, heart rate entered the risk equation in a positive manner without rejecting caffeine. The -163C>A polymorphism of the CYP1A2 gene, codifying for ability to metabolize caffeine, introduced in sensitivity analysis, did not alter the prognostic models. Conclusion: Men introducing >230 mg/day caffeine show a reduced risk of HF, and those introducing >280 mg/day a reduced risk of CBV and ARR independent of genetic pattern

Symptoms of anxiety and depression across adulthood and blood pressure in late middle age: the 1946 British birth cohort.

Previous studies testing the hypothesis that symptoms of anxiety and depression increase blood pressure (BP) levels show inconsistent and limited findings. We examined the association between those symptoms across adult life and BP in late middle age

Prevalence of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in European populations based on cross-validated diagnostic thresholds

BACKGROUND: Different diagnostic criteria limit comparisons between populations in the prevalence of diastolic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. We aimed to compare across populations age-specific echocardiographic criteria for diastolic LV dysfunction as well as their correlates and prevalence. METHODS: We measured the E and A peaks of transmitral blood flow by pulsed wave Doppler and the e' and a' peaks of mitral annular velocities by tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) in 2 cohorts randomly recruited in Belgium (n = 782; 51.4% women; mean age, 51.1 years) and in Italy, Poland and Russia (n = 476; 55.7%; 44.5 years). RESULTS: In stepwise regression, the multivariable-adjusted correlates of the transmitral and TDI diastolic indexes were similar in the 2 cohorts and included sex, age, body mass index, blood pressure and heart rate. Similarly, cut-off limits for the E/A ratio (2.5th percentile) and E/e' ratio (97.5th percentile) in 338 and 185 reference subjects free from cardiovascular risk factors respectively selected from both cohorts were consistent within 0.02 and 0.26 units (median across 5 age groups). The rounded 2.5th percentile of the E/A ratio decreased by ~0.10 per age decade in these apparently healthy subjects. The reference subsample provided age-specific cut-off limits for normal E/A and E/e' ratios. In the 2 cohorts combined, diastolic dysfunction groups 1 (impaired relaxation), 2 (possible elevated LV filling pressure) and 3 (elevated E/e' and abnormally low E/A) encompassed 114 (9.1%), 135 (10.7%), and 40 (3.2%) subjects, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The age-specific criteria for diastolic LV dysfunction were highly consistent across the study populations with an age-standardized prevalence of 22.4% vs. 25.1%

Serum Uric Acid and Kidney Disease Measures Independently Predict Cardiovascular and Total Mortality: The Uric Acid Right for Heart Health (URRAH) Project

Background: Serum uric acid predicts the onset and progression of kidney disease, and the occurrence of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Nevertheless, it is unclear which is the appropriate definition of hyperuricemia in presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Our goal was to study the independent impact of uric acid and CKD on mortality. Methods: We retrospectively investigated 21,963 patients from the URRAH study database. Hyperuricemia was defined on the basis of outcome specific cut-offs separately identified by ROC curves according to eGFR strata. The primary endpoints were cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Results: After a mean follow-up of 9.8 year, there were 1,582 (7.20%) cardiovascular events and 3,130 (14.25%) deaths for all causes. The incidence of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality increased in parallel with reduction of eGFR strata and with progressively higher uric acid quartiles. During 215,618 person-years of follow-up, the incidence rate for cardiovascular mortality, stratified based on eGFR (>90, between 60 and 90 and <60 ml/min) was significantly higher in patients with hyperuricemia and albuminuria (3.8, 22.1 and 19.1, respectively) as compared to those with only one risk factor or none (0.4, 2.8 and 3.1, respectively). Serum uric acid and eGFR significantly interact in determining cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. For each SUA increase of 1 mg/dl the risk for mortality increased by 10% even after adjustment for potential confounding factors included eGFR and the presence of albuminuria. Conclusions: hyperuricemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality additively to eGFR strata and albuminuria, in patients at cardiovascular risk

Prognostic Value and Relative Cutoffs of Triglycerides Predicting Cardiovascular Outcome in a Large Regional-Based Italian Database

BACKGROUND: Despite longstanding epidemiologic data on the association between increased serum triglycerides and cardiovascular events, the exact level at which risk begins to rise is unclear. The Working Group on Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension has conceived a protocol aimed at searching for the prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides in predicting cardiovascular events in a large regional-based Italian cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 14189 subjects aged 18 to 95years followed-up for 11.2 (5.3–13.2) years, the prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides, able to discriminate combined cardiovascular events, was identified by means of receiver operating characteristic curve. The conventional (150mg/dL) and the prognostic cutoff values of triglycerides were used as independent predictors in separate multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum uric acid, arterial hypertension, diabetes, chronic renal disease, smoking habit, and use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. During 139375 person-years of follow-up, 1601 participants experienced cardiovascular events. Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that 89mg/dL (95% CI, 75.8–103.3, sensitivity 76.6, specificity 34.1, P<0.0001) was the prognostic cutoff value for cardiovascular events. Both cutoff values of triglycerides, the conventional and the newly identified, were accepted as multivariate predictors in separate Cox analyses, the hazard ratios being 1.211 (95% CI, 1.063–1.378, P=0.004) and 1.150 (95% CI, 1.021–1.295, P=0.02), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lower (89mg/dL) than conventional (150mg/dL) prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides for cardiovascular events does exist and is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in an Italian cohor

Serum Uric Acid/Serum Creatinine Ratio and Cardiovascular Mortality in Diabetic Individuals—The Uric Acid Right for Heart Health (URRAH) Project

Several studies have detected a direct association between serum uric acid (SUA) and cardiovascular (CV) risk. In consideration that SUA largely depends on kidney function, some studies explored the role of the serum creatinine (sCr)-normalized SUA (SUA/sCr) ratio in different settings. Previously, the URRAH (URic acid Right for heArt Health) Study has identified a cut-off value of this index to predict CV mortality at 5.35 Units. Therefore, given that no SUA/sCr ratio threshold for CV risk has been identified for patients with diabetes, we aimed to assess the relationship between this index and CV mortality and to validate this threshold in the URRAH subpopulation with diabetes; the URRAH participants with diabetes were studied (n = 2230). The risk of CV mortality was evaluated by the Kaplan–Meier estimator and Cox multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 380 CV deaths occurred. A non-linear inverse association between baseline SUA/sCr ratio and risk of CV mortality was detected. In the whole sample, SUA/sCr ratio > 5.35 Units was not a significant predictor of CV mortality in diabetic patients. However, after stratification by kidney function, values > 5.35 Units were associated with a significantly higher mortality rate only in normal kidney function, while, in participants with overt kidney dysfunction, values of SUA/sCr ratio > 7.50 Units were associated with higher CV mortality. The SUA/sCr ratio threshold, previously proposed by the URRAH Study Group, is predictive of an increased risk of CV mortality in people with diabetes and preserved kidney function. While, in consideration of the strong association among kidney function, SUA, and CV mortality, a different cut-point was detected for diabetics with impaired kidney function. These data highlight the different predictive roles of SUA (and its interaction with kidney function) in CV risk, pointing out the difference in metabolic- and kidney-dependent SUA levels also in diabetic individual

Association of uric acid with kidney function and albuminuria: the Uric Acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project

Background: Hyperuricemia is commonly observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, a better understanding of the relationship among uric acid (UA) values, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the excess of cardiovascular mortality associated with both chronic kidney disease and hyperuricemia and lead to better risk stratification. Our main goal was to study the relationships between serum uric acid and kidney disease measures (namely estimated GFR [eGFR] and albuminuria) in a large cohort of individuals at cardiovascular risk from the URic acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project database. Methods: Clinical data of 26,971 individuals were analyzed. Factors associated with the presence of hyperuricemia defined on the basis of previously determined URRAH cutoffs for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were evaluated through multivariate analysis. Chronic kidney disease was defined as eGFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and/or abnormal urinary albumin excretion diagnosed as: (i) microalbuminuria if urinary albumin concentration was > 30 and ≤ 300 mg/L, or if urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) was > 3.4 mg/mmol and ≤ 34 mg/mmol; (ii) macroalbuminuria if urinary albumin concentration was > 300 mg/L, or if ACR was > 34 mg/mmol. Results: Mean age was 58 ± 15 years (51% males, 62% with hypertension and 12% with diabetes), mean eGFR was 81 ml/min per 1.73m22with a prevalence of eGFR < 60 and micro- or macroalbuminuria of 16, 15 and 4%, respectively. Serum uric acid showed a trend towards higher values along with decreasing renal function. Both the prevalence of gout and the frequency of allopurinol use increased significantly with the reduction of eGFR and the increase in albuminuria. Hyperuricemia was independently related to male gender, eGFR strata, and signs of insulin resistance such as body mass index (BMI) and triglycerides. Conclusions: The lower the eGFR the higher the prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout. In subjects with eGFR < 60 ml/min the occurrence of hyperuricemia is about 10 times higher than in those with eGFR > 90 ml/min. The percentage of individuals treated with allopurinol was below 2% when GFR was above 60 ml/min, it increased to 20% in the presence of CKD 3b and rose further to 35% in individuals with macroalbuminuria

Covariate-adjusted measures of discrimination for survival data

Motivation: Discrimination statistics describe the ability of a survival model to assign higher risks to individuals who experience earlier events: examples are Harrell's C-index and Royston and Sauerbrei's D, which we call the D-index. Prognostic covariates whose distributions are controlled by the study design (e.g. age and sex) influence discrimination and can make it difficult to compare model discrimination between studies. Although covariate adjustment is a standard procedure for quantifying disease-risk factor associations, there are no covariate adjustment methods for discrimination statistics in censored survival data. Objective: To develop extensions of the C-index and D-index that describe the prognostic ability of a model adjusted for one or more covariate(s).Method: We define a covariate-adjusted C-index and D-index for censored survival data, propose several estimators, and investigate their performance in simulation studies and in data from a large individual participant data meta-analysis, the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Results: The proposed methods perform well in simulations. In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration data, the age-adjusted C-index and D-index were substantially smaller than unadjusted values. The study-specific standard deviation of baseline age was strongly associated with the unadjusted C-index and D-index but not significantly associated with the age-adjusted indices. Conclusions: The proposed estimators improve meta-analysis comparisons, are easy to implement and give a more meaningful clinical interpretation.Ian R. White ... D. Lawlor ... Emerging Risk Factors Collaboratio

Main results of the Ouabain and Adducin for Specific Intervention on Sodium in Hypertension Trial (OASIS-HT): a randomized placebo-controlled phase-2 dose-finding study of rostafuroxin

Background. The Ouabain and Adducin for Specific Intervention on Sodium in Hypertension (OASIS-HT) Trial was a phase 2 dose-finding study of rostafuroxin, a digitoxygenin deivative, which selectively antagonizes the effects of endogenous ouabain (EO) on Na+,K+-ATPase and mutated adducin. Rostafuroxin lowered blood pressure (BP) in some animal models and in humans. Methods. OASIS-HT consisted of 5 concurrently running double-blind cross-over studies. After 4 weeks without treatment, 435 patients with uncomplicated systolic hypertension (140-169 mm Hg) were randomized to rostafuroxin (0.05, 0.15, 0.5, 1.5 or 5.0 mg/d) or matching placebo, each treatment period lasting 5 weeks. The primary endpoint was the reduction in systolic office BP. Among the secondary endpoints were diastolic office BP, 24 h ambulatory BP, plasma EO concentration and renin activity, 24-h urinary sodium and aldosterone excretion, and safety. ANOVA considered treatment sequence (fixed effect), subjects nested within sequence (random), period (fixed), and treatment (fixed). Results. Among 410 analyzable patients (40.5% women; mean age, 48.4 years), the differences in the primary endpoint (rostafuroxin minus placebo) ranged from -0.18 mm Hg (P=0.90) on 0.15 mg/d rostafuroxin to 2.72 mm Hg (P=0.04) on 0.05 mg/d. In the 5 dosage arms combined, the treatment effects averaged 1.30 mm Hg (P=0.03) for systolic office BP; 0.70 mm Hg (P=0.08) for diastolic office BP; 0.36 mm Hg (P=0.49) for 24-h systolic BP; and 0.05 mm Hg (P=0.88) for 24-h diastolic BP. In the 2 treatment groups combined, systolic (-1.36 mm Hg) and diastolic (-0.97 mm Hg) office BPs decreased from week 5 to 10 (P for period effect ≤=0.028), but carry-over effects were not significant (P≥=0.11). All other endpoints were not different on rostafuroxin and placebo. Minor side-effects occurred with similarly low frequency on rostafuroxin and placebo. Conclusions. In 5 concurrently running double-blind cross-over studies rostafuroxin did not reduce BP at any dose. Trial Registration: NCT00415038 http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)